1) You can always hope that America and Europe will be different and they might be, but that's because multiconsole ownership is more common, especially in America. HDTVs won't have much of an influence on console purchasing decisions.

Nintendo isn't working on a HD Wii, it simply doesn't make sense. After the Wii's huge success because they did things different, why would they go back to directly attack Microsoft and Sony? Answer: they won't. Also, you don't have any proof for your claim that Nintendo is developing a HD Wii. But feel free to post a link to your "proof", if you desire that your credibility on this forum drops to rock bottom.

2) As I said before, the console with the highest perceived value, the Wii, will be the least affected by the economy crisis. Price isn't as important as value, otherwise the Gamecube would have crushed its competition last generation.

3) $349 or more just seems so expensive, because the perceived value of the product is relatively low. And no, value doesn't mean how much the product costs to produce and how much it's being sold for. The PS3 isn't a better value because it's sold at a loss. The value of a console is primarly determined by the software you get access to when you buy the hardware. Some of the Wii's software is highly valued which can be seen in the continued high sales of these games. You hardly find any 360 or PS3 games that sell more than 40-50k units per week worldwide three months after their release.

4) People might not line up to try the Wii out (Maybe because they've tried it out at a friend's place? The Wii has been on the market for nearly two years and sold more than 10m units in the USA.), but it's still selling out quickly each week. But anyway, your belief is based on the hope that people got tired of the Wii. Why would they though? New good games will be released regularly during the holiday quarter.

1-3) This is going nowhere. All your arguments come down to "Let's wait until all of these conditions are met, then we'll see what will happen". That's boring. Why can't we both look at the past in order to predict the future? You know, all the historical evidence points to the Wii having continued success and selling better than either the 360 or PS3 every month worldwide until all these systems are discontinued.

4) You are from Germany, all consoles aren't selling quickly, but the Wii still sells the most each week. Despite the 360 having deals with games included making it far cheaper than the Wii, I might add. But yeah, that doesn't count because not everybody has an HDTV yet, so we can't conclude that the Wii will remain the top system until the end of its life (which will be longer than the 360's and PS3's).

1) Interesting interpretation, but I was thinking more along the lines of "the system that consistently outsells its competition does so for the rest of the generation".

2) a.k.a. 4): Well, that's one shop out of many.

Historical evidence shows that the winning system of a generation has the longest lifecycle which would be the Wii this time. Now you might say that the Wii is different because it's so underpowered compared to its competition, but 25 years ago the NES was in the same situation. Production of the machine was stopped in 2002, although it only sold until 1995 or so outside of Japan.

Historical evidence also shows that most consoles peak in their third year and it seems the same will hold true for the 360.

1) Interesting interpretation, but I was thinking more along the lines of "the system that consistently outsells its competition does so for the rest of the generation".

2) a.k.a. 4): Well, that's one shop out of many.

Historical evidence shows that the winning system of a generation has the longest lifecycle which would be the Wii this time. Now you might say that the Wii is different because it's so underpowered compared to its competition, but 25 years ago the NES was in the same situation. Production of the machine was stopped in 2002, although it only sold until 1995 or so outside of Japan.

Historical evidence also shows that most consoles peak in their third year and it seems the same will hold true for the 360.

Tell me, where did Nintendo let it slip that they are making an HD Wii? There was a poorly researched article based entirely on speculation, but presented as if it were fact. I guess that's what you are refering to.

We had this situation before. When the NES came to America, videogames were dead. Gaming was on home computers. Those were the real competition of the NES, not the Sega Master System which was launched as reaction to Nintendo's success because there was a market for videogames again.

The home computers were more expensive than the NES, offered more sophisticated games and hardcore gamers laughed at the NES. Sounds familiar? Despite analysts who kept saying every year that the NES had no future, Nintendo still came out on top and the home computers which were believed to be the future of gaming were made gone. This generation has many similarities with the NES era from 25 years ago.

And the Wii is the winning system, how could you argue otherwise? People who haven't bought consoles before don't count? Besides, the vast majority of Wii owners bought a console last generation, most of them a PS2. Obviously, because that was the marketleader of last gen.

Well said.

@Simulacrum: You also get vg$ when people are posting in your thread.

That's the article I was refering to. Here's what Reggie had to say about it in a recent interview:

VB: So by that logic, some people are guessing that the next Wii will show up in 2011. You’re in the lead. You have no reason to introduce a new machine. But maybe you’ll keep up the competitive pressure?

RF-A: It’s pure rumor and speculation. I find it disappointing that it’s being reported as fact by a number of online outlets.