Lo, more likely in 6-7 years, people are just starting to adapt HDTV'S.

in other words in a 2 years period will stop releasing DVDS... and we will force blu ray down your throat.

Two years is a very likly bet. By holiday 2010 PS3 will be well below $299, and stand alone drives will be well under $99. Then add in the fact that Stores are going to be stripping more and more floor space from DVD and adding to Blu-ray, and I think people will get the hint. The only people that are going to hold off are the ones that have some kind of Blu-ray grudge. Average consumers just take the hint. Blu-ray movies start coming out weeks earlyer, and DVD's become by order only. Most people will just decide it is time to move on and go BR.

LOL, you are so clueless. You think the fact t hat you put Blu-Ray up customers' faces they will jump into the next format??? Hasn't Blockbuster and other chains have been doing that??? The only reason why Blu-Ray is doing somewhat ok is because of the geek market that jumped into the PS3 that Sony shoved down their throats, if the PS3 hadn't come with Blu-Ray the technology would be ages behind. Your average Joe customer that drives the market will jump into Blu-Ray when the market is again financially stable and when the price of the hardware is cheap enough, otherwise they will not buy it. You tech nerds need to stop thinking you drive the market because you are far from it.

So your saying the only reason it is giong to take off is because all the big companies are going to shove Blu down the consumers throat?

I see absolutely no reason why the mass market will adopt bluray.  This is the same mass market that sees no difference between upscaled DVD and Bluray, all they will see is price which will always be in the DVD favour IMO.

Considering how much EFFORT Disney put into brd...no great surprise. They maybe plan on releasing movies Only on brd...lol.

I think Disney is in a better position to pick up on format trends than any of us, so take this with a grain of salt. With the economy the way it is i really can't see people spending top dollar for BR when DVDs are cheaper.

That's simply not gonna happen... while there's no doubt Blu-Ray will continue to grow and gain marketshare, there's simply no way it overtakes DVDs as the standard home video format in just 2 years, or ever for that matter.

DVD overtook VHS relatively quickly, but that was because it was like comparing night and day... the jump in video and audio quality between VHS and DVD was huge for its time... the jump between up-converted DVDs and Blu-Ray is minimal, even on high-end hardware. DVD player and movie prices also dropped to main-stream prices relatively quickly as well, with most DVDs being around the same price as their VHS counterparts by late 2000, and DVD player prices going below $200 around the same time as well.

There simply isn't enough reason for the average consumer to pay $10-$15 more for a movie and $300+ on a player, not to mention needing an HDTV that fully supports Blu-Ray, which would be a 1080p set AT LEAST 40" in size, preferably closer to the 50" range to really see all the details. No way the average household has that kind of set-up within 2 years, even if Blu-Ray player prices come down to mainstream prices (under $200) within that time.

Plus... in order for movies to really take advantage of the Blu-Ray format, they have had to have been originally filmed using high-end HD cameras. This is only true for movies within the past few years or so... all older movies that are transfered onto Blu-Ray are virtually the same as taking the existing DVD versions and up-converting them to 1080p. If you were to watch, say, the Wizard of Oz on Blu-Ray, there'd be virtually no difference between that version and the existing DVD version, and you're not gonna convince millions of consumers they need to re-buy all those movies yet again when the existing DVD versions are perfectly fine.

It is not going to be a question of weather the masses want to move on or not. The move from VHS to DVD was not because people wanted DVD. Many people I know held onto VHS as long as they could, but at some point they realized they had to move on or stop enjoying movies. The nice thing about this transition is people do not have to get rid of their old libraries. In fact their Blu-ray player will even make their old DVDs look much better. Due to that, CE companies really have no need to continue to manufacture DVD players. They will for a couple of more years, as they know not everyone can afford a $200+ device. Once Blu-ray players are below $100 very few DVD players will be available.

This is the way it goes, and average consumers will make the move when they are comfortable. Like I said, the only people that are going to hold out are people on that have some kind of grudge, and that is a very small protion of the market.

This isn't that weird.

Eclipsing doesn't necessarily mean selling more than the current number.

DVD sales will go down as Bluray, OnDemand, and other Digital Distribution take off.