That's simply not gonna happen... while there's no doubt Blu-Ray will continue to grow and gain marketshare, there's simply no way it overtakes DVDs as the standard home video format in just 2 years, or ever for that matter.
DVD overtook VHS relatively quickly, but that was because it was like comparing night and day... the jump in video and audio quality between VHS and DVD was huge for its time... the jump between up-converted DVDs and Blu-Ray is minimal, even on high-end hardware. DVD player and movie prices also dropped to main-stream prices relatively quickly as well, with most DVDs being around the same price as their VHS counterparts by late 2000, and DVD player prices going below $200 around the same time as well.
There simply isn't enough reason for the average consumer to pay $10-$15 more for a movie and $300+ on a player, not to mention needing an HDTV that fully supports Blu-Ray, which would be a 1080p set AT LEAST 40" in size, preferably closer to the 50" range to really see all the details. No way the average household has that kind of set-up within 2 years, even if Blu-Ray player prices come down to mainstream prices (under $200) within that time.
Plus... in order for movies to really take advantage of the Blu-Ray format, they have had to have been originally filmed using high-end HD cameras. This is only true for movies within the past few years or so... all older movies that are transfered onto Blu-Ray are virtually the same as taking the existing DVD versions and up-converting them to 1080p. If you were to watch, say, the Wizard of Oz on Blu-Ray, there'd be virtually no difference between that version and the existing DVD version, and you're not gonna convince millions of consumers they need to re-buy all those movies yet again when the existing DVD versions are perfectly fine.
On 2/24/13, MB1025 said:
You know I was always wondering why no one ever used the dollar sign for $ony, but then I realized they have no money so it would be pointless.
