If that's your definition of establishing a new brand then I'll give you that.

Using the same convertion rate as the 360, ie 2.5 attach in million+ sellers = 6 total the PSP would be around 1.8(0.75 x 6/2.5), far lower than the 3 you assumed. there's nothing to say that there won't be a big group of titles sitting at just under a million on 360 either so I'd say this is a fair estimate.

The problem is that we don't have reliable historical attach rate info, and no two consoles work the same way. I'm just pointing out how counting *only* the million-sellers, particularly on a console that has one four-million and then nothing else above 1.5 million, has no meaning. maybe I'm wrong. I'm not saying my facts are absolute. They're based on observation and heresay. But yours aren't based on anything more. It's all dependent on figures we don't have.

GBA's attach rate is lower than 2, counting only million-sellers. And older consoles have the advantage in attach-rates. All I'm saying is your method of figuring out attach rates is horribly faulty.

2 is still way higher than 0.75. I realise the 1.8 overall attach ratio is not fool proof but it is the most accurate it can be based off the 2.5 & 6 values given for 360. Yes every system is different but these are 2 consoles out at the same time with a lot of the same type of games so have more in common than a lot of platforms. I agree that the actual attach rate of the PSP could be >1.8 but it could just as easily be <1.8. Remember that there are legions of PSP owners out there playing tons of games that they haven't paid a penny for, a system can't be hit as hard by piracy as the PSP has and not have correspondingly low software sales.

The issue with PSP attach ratios is that historically, handhelds have always had much lower tier rates than home consoles. Last gen, most home consoles were near 10.0, whereas GBA was somewhere near 4.0~5.0.

PSP attach ratios for software are NOT that great. It's around 3.0. Trust me, I've checked. Just add up the past oh, 1 year of PSP software history in Japan and divide by total sales then, and you'll get a general, fairly accurate picture.

However, to the PSP's advantage, it does have UMDs that increase attach ratios for a unique type of software to the PSP. I assume the UMD attach rate is around 1.0 for purchased UMD movies, give or take.

Overall, I would consider the PSP, if profitable over its lifetime for Sony, a great succuess. Many people feel its a failure since it's in the shadows versus the DS, but the fact is, the PSP has helped, along with the DS, expand the handheld market. The handheld purchase rates are through the roof - every week, almost 750,000 PSPs and DSs are sold a week. The PSP has sold more than every non-Nintendo handheld (Lynx, Ngage, Game Gear, ect, ect) combined, and it can easily do another 15-25m before a succuessor announces.

So in that way, it hasn't failed. However, it did have alot of foward momentum pre-DS launch, and blew some of it's momentum. It was highly anticipated, and greatly recieved. Honestly, it faces a difficult problem: the fact is, the software SUCKS for the PSP. I want a PSP, but the games just aren't there, unlike the DS. Games that are big for the PSP such as the GTA Stories, MHP, and Final Fantasy itenerations do well because they're big name IPs, but most devs havent supported it as well as they could have.

Likewise, Sony hasn't done enough to develop alot of strong IPs on their own handheld. With God of War, I think they're finally realizing that half of the reason the DS does so well is top-tier Nintendo franchises on their handheld have only but helped. Nintendo has Pokemon, a unique great IP for their handhelds, whereas Sony really has nothing to combat it. Hopefully, Sony can do better, because the PSP has the potential to do upto 75m still in this gen (Im not saying it will get insane numbers like that, but it could if Sony really cared about the PSP).

Not that I don't trust you but basing an attach rate on 1 year of a console's life in 1 territory isn't necessarily going to yield any more accurate results than my, admittedly crude calculation. Have more abundant, better titles been releases in year 2 than year 1? Do Japanese PSP owners tend to depend on homebrew and piracy less than other regions? Are some games much bigger hits in Japan than elsewhere(I'm thinking MH2 here)? All we know for sure is that PSP's attach rate is low and that this makes the platform very unattractive to developers and paints a bleak picture for future releases, I don't see how this view can be questioned.

Including UMD's in the attach ratio's is only going to convince movie studios not game developers and those are who ultimately decide the fate of any system.

Of course, there's no need for such a rough estimate since the lifetime hardware and software sales are available for Japan. And the attach rate is around 2.0 (11.6Million software, 5.7Million hardware). Unfortunately, American total hardware sales are not available, so the same calculation cannot be performed. But when that's compared to the DS attach rate of 4.0, which is around the same age, shows that it's struggling to sell software (at least in Japan)

Thanks for clearing that up.

Has any other system at this stage of it's lifetime had a lower attach ratio than PSP's 2 I wonder?

I will first state that I have read none of the posts in this topic. I'm simply responding to the title of the thread.

I do not believe the PSP was a failure, by any means. Fast approaching 25 million units sold, the PSP is absolutely a success, and is the first handheld to stand toe-to-toe with the DS since the Game Gear. I was, admittedly, surprised to see the PSP doing as well as it did. In the end, it survived and did well enough that Sony could certainly produce a "PSP 2" (the first follow-up handheld to a successful Nintendo opponent unit in the industry's history).

Sony did well with the PSP.

The PSP isn't a failure in the grand scheme of things as it is, or very soon will be, profitable. I think a lot of people are underestimating what the new PSP model is going to do for sales. It won't be a DSL-like boost, but it's going to be a significant (and permanent) increase in sales. Most of the issues associated with the PSP are being taken care of and there are new features being added.

The one issue not being addressed is the overall impression that the system lacks any good software. And that's being taken care of both inside and outside of Sony. It's taken a long time, but a couple more games that will prove to be decently good sellers are on their way. Additionally, with the PS2 on the decline it is quite possible that developers may shift resources to the PSP. Really, the two are in competition with eachother and the PSP just can't win that.

Now I won't say that the PSP is suddenly going to become a massive success, but it's making people money. If it can keep doing that for a couple more years, I'd call that a success.

The psp has a low attach rate simply because the handheld cost to much. In terms of software failure in the gaming department, I would love to say they have been below what the expectations was at e304. The psp (I have one) is a unique system, though the only real good action games, are the ones I will list

Killzone:liberation
Starwars battle front 2
GTA vice city & liberty city
socom
and daxter, those are basicly atleast the games that apeal to me that are worth getting a psp. Though the upcoming starwars and god of war games could increase attach rates as well as hardware sales in the near future.