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Forums - Sales - Does anyone still believe PS3 will win the console war?

Skeeuk on 28 September 2008
Sky Render said:
This will probably strike many around here as a very foreign and impossible concept, but there are people who enjoy games like Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Wii Play, and yes, even Carnival Games. But they aren't interested in games like Halo 3, Gears of War, Metal Gear Solid 4, or even LittleBigPlanet. These people, whom I'm sure many here would be tempted to write off as "casual gamers" and be done with them, are as valid of customers as any of us are; our money is not worth any more to the industry at large than theirs is. They are downmarket gamers, often new to the market or just disinterested in moving upmarket at the moment.

And of course, there are the midmarket gamers who also enjoy the Wii series, but will still play some upmarket games as well. Most gamers actually fall into this category, and I'm sure they vex the self-proclaimed hardcore even more since they can't rightly be labeled "casual" if they also enjoy games like Super Smash Bros Brawl and Resident Evil 4. They are the market's actual lifeblood, you see; the gamers who will buy pretty much anything as long as it entertains them.

The group that only buys upmarket games, of course, will happily identify itself as "hardcore". And if they want such a negative label, they're welcome to it (try looking up "hardcore" some time; it basically means somebody who's dead set in their ways and opposed to change, like the cliche'd old man who complains about "them damned kids"). But I'm sure this market is well known; they're the sorts who scoff at the Wii series and think that the 360 and PS3 are superior platforms based on the games they like. And for their own tastes, they're absolutely right. The Wii is not particularly littered with upmarket games, after all.

Well, there you have it in a nutshell. The Wii sells the most because it appeals to the downmarket and midmarket consumer. In other words, to people who will play only simple games and to people who will play just about anything.

thats a very good imformative post, i agree with you 100%



...not much time to post anymore, used to be awesome on here really good fond memories from VGchartz...

PSN: Skeeuk - XBL: SkeeUK - PC: Skeeuk

really miss the VGCHARTZ of 2008 - 2013...

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Viper1 on 28 September 2008
Skeeuk said:

 

the "patiantly awaiting ps3 sales to exceed 360 sales" thats a bet ive had with a freind of mine.

360 has a bigger library, and due to a 16 month head start there was some good games released, but they are old news to me ive played them and traded them, no future title intrests me on 360 apart from 2. so what of it. i wont be playing 2 yer old games this fall, so theres no point in bringing that up

i was origionally talking about wii games, the hd console games are miles better.

 

This.

This is why you will never understand the Wii.  You assume your perspective is the only acceptable perspective.  You assume that your taste in video games should be the ONLY games people play.

You have an elitist viewpoint that shuts out all other possible personal choices.  Do you live every sport?  Do you like3 every color?  Do you like every food?  I think you see my point now.  There are millions of people who like things that you don't.

 

 



The rEVOLution is not being televised

slimeattack on 28 September 2008
koffieboon said:
slimeattack said:
koffieboon said:
slimeattack said:
I still think the PS3 will win this gen. When the price drops to 299 or so sales should double, just like they did with the last year drop. Games like LBP will steal SOME potential Wii owners who will think that the PS3 has better games than Wii Music or sth like this. The PS3 will in the end pass the Wii, albeit minimally. It won't pass the PS2 though, which should get to 150 million in LTD sales (now it's around 140 million, vgchartz is undertracking).

Pricedrops usually only provide a temporary bump in sales and maybe a small improvement over the long run, but no way a PS3 will continuously see its sales double when dropping its price to 299. And although Vgchartz is probably a little low on PS2 it shipped around 130M units in March 2008 (it's hard to be precise considering they used production shipments for most of the time), so it is definitely not at 140M yet.

 

I don't want to disappoint you but the PS3 is selling twice what it was last year. Because of a price drop.

Are you referring to the abysmal sales in the US last year? Cause it really wasn't that hard to double sales there. I could just as easily point towards the Japanese market where sales didn't improve at all or any other price drop in history for any console which didn't show continued rising of sales by 100%.

 

I am talking about WORLDWIDE sales. The PS3 has the biggest SALES POTENTIAL. 150k WW sales is a hell lot for a 399 console. If it is selling this well at such a price point, then just think what will happen when the price falls to 299 or less. I know a lot of people that will buy a PS3 at 299 or less, so quit trolling. And the PS3 in Japan will pick off once it gets some big games (FFXIII, GT5).



slimeattack on 28 September 2008
Kenny said:
Paul_Warren said:
"That is called a hopeful dream.

It's possible in my lifetime someone will find a way to make me live 100 years longer than anyone else before me and still be healthy till the end... it's possible that for some unknown reason everyone stops buying bread next week.

This website is about sales; past, present and future. The future part comes from analysing the past and present part.... mysterious occurences that make no sense and don't have any significant chance of happening aren't generally considered."

Yeah, well, when the University of Kentucky Wildcats basketball team was behind LSU by 32 points with 10 minutes to go in Baton Rouge, La, in the 1993-1994 season and managed to come back to win the game, and the same thing when UK was behind Duke by 20 points at the half-time in the 1998 NCAA tournament, yet managed to win as well. I think that there's no reason to doubt that the PS3 has any less of a chance to win than UK did in both of those situations.

Actually, there is, as the analogy you provide doesn't perfectly match the nature of the console wars.  You see, the console wars have always been based on momentum.  As one system pulls ahead, public opinion of it improves, which leads to increased third party support, which leads to more sales in a giant self-sustaining chain reaction.  This applies globally, and has been true of the NES, the PSX, the PS2, and most recently, the DS.  The Wii has been exceptional in this regard in that they have achieved record sales rates with very little of it being attributable to third party support - just think what the sales will be like when third parties finally get onto the bandwagon.  Of course, Nintendo would have to ramp up production even further to reap the benefits of that, as they are still selling every system they can make, which is already an incredible number.

Of course, the reverse is also true.  As a system stagnates, public opinion of it deteriorates, which leads to reduced support, which leads to less sales and, ultimately, an early death.  That's the road the PS3 is on right now, and if the history of the console wars is any indication, it's already too late for them to change course.  When you combine this with the skyrocketing costs of HD game development, and the fact that Sony has already wiped out all their profits from the PS2 with the PS3 (i.e. their current PS3 strategy is already horribly unsustainable), the picture gets even worse.  I know it's a difficult perspective to adjust to, especially when the PS2 was the runaway leader of the last generation, but you have to accept that the history of the console wars simply doesn't support your argument.

 

The problem is that the Wii isn't getting any serious third-party support for a number. Quite a few people want to get a PS3 once the price drops. After that happens, the PS3 should get more third-party exclusive support, the public opinion will get better and sales will increase. A chain reaction.



yo_john117 on 28 September 2008

This thread is quite epic!! Fanboys to your battle stations!!!!!!



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Sky Render on 28 September 2008

Your argument, slimeattack, seems to be based upon how the industry has worked for the last 20 or so years. Which isn't surprising, seeing as the industry has been pretty consistent since the NES established its current form, and since the Genesis and SNES set the precedent for how it would grow and advance. But I see a critical flaw in your viewpoint, too: you don't really seem to consider what happens when an industry changes.

By the logic of the industry of the last 20 years, the Wii should have been a horrible failure. It didn't play the horsepower and graphics game at all. It didn't try to draw in boatloads of third parties from the get-go. It didn't release ahead of the rest of the competition to get a foothold before the competition. By the rules of the industry precedent set by the Genesis and reinforced by the SNES, the Wii should have failed.

But it did not fail. Which means, by extension, that the rule of the industry have to have changed. Meaning that, while your logic is 100% valid by the "old" rules, it is entirely wrong by the "new" rules. You seem to be assuming that the rules will go back to the "old" set, but that doesn't happen in any industry.

When an industry changes, when it becomes disrupted, the "old" rules are gone for good. People didn't go back to iceboxes, telegraphs, wood ovens, candles, and horse-drawn carriages after the refridgerator, telephone, electric oven, incandescent bulb, and automobile were introduced and gained popularity. This is progress of the same nature, and the same sort of changing of the rules.



Sky Render - Sanity is for the weak.

Roma on 28 September 2008

Never expected it to win! so no



    R.I.P Mr Iwata :'(

Kenny on 28 September 2008
slimeattack said:

The problem is that the Wii isn't getting any serious third-party support for a number. Quite a few people want to get a PS3 once the price drops. After that happens, the PS3 should get more third-party exclusive support, the public opinion will get better and sales will increase. A chain reaction.

And how much of the Wii's current success is owed to third party support, exactly?  Even if they didn't get any, that would just maintain the status quo for them, which is still Nintendomination.  Their sales aren't going to walk off a cliff one day if nothing changes as far as support is concerned, as the past year has already shown.  As long as the third party power vacuum keeps growing on the Wii, the chances of third parties continuing to ignore the Wii decline by the day.

Also, the chain of events you predict for the PS3 aren't realistic, because A) the price drop(s) that have already come to pass weren't enough to push the PS3 even close to the Wii (though they did push sales slightly over the 360), and B) if you've seen the software sales charts that NPD put out, the PS3 has about 40% less third party software sales compared to the Wii and the 360 in North America, despite enjoying markedly superior third party support compared to the Wii.  When amplified by the cost of HD game development, this makes the PS3 rather unattractive to third parties next to its competitors.



Super World Cup Fighter II: Championship 2010 Edition

slimeattack on 28 September 2008
Kenny said:
slimeattack said:

The problem is that the Wii isn't getting any serious third-party support for a number. Quite a few people want to get a PS3 once the price drops. After that happens, the PS3 should get more third-party exclusive support, the public opinion will get better and sales will increase. A chain reaction.

And how much of the Wii's current success is owed to third party support, exactly?  Even if they didn't get any, that would just maintain the status quo for them, which is still Nintendomination.  Their sales aren't going to walk off a cliff one day if nothing changes as far as support is concerned, as the past year has already shown.  As long as the third party power vacuum keeps growing on the Wii, the chances of third parties continuing to ignore the Wii decline by the day.

Also, the chain of events you predict for the PS3 aren't realistic, because A) the price drop(s) that have already come to pass weren't enough to push the PS3 even close to the Wii (though they did push sales slightly over the 360), and B) if you've seen the software sales charts that NPD put out, the PS3 has about 40% less third party software sales compared to the Wii and the 360 in North America, despite enjoying markedly superior third party support compared to the Wii.  When amplified by the cost of HD game development, this makes the PS3 rather unattractive to third parties next to its competitors.

Before the price drops the Wii was selling 3x what the PS3 was, now it's 2x. Makes a difference.

 



koffieboon on 28 September 2008
slimeattack said:
koffieboon said:
slimeattack said:
koffieboon said:
slimeattack said:
I still think the PS3 will win this gen. When the price drops to 299 or so sales should double, just like they did with the last year drop. Games like LBP will steal SOME potential Wii owners who will think that the PS3 has better games than Wii Music or sth like this. The PS3 will in the end pass the Wii, albeit minimally. It won't pass the PS2 though, which should get to 150 million in LTD sales (now it's around 140 million, vgchartz is undertracking).

Pricedrops usually only provide a temporary bump in sales and maybe a small improvement over the long run, but no way a PS3 will continuously see its sales double when dropping its price to 299. And although Vgchartz is probably a little low on PS2 it shipped around 130M units in March 2008 (it's hard to be precise considering they used production shipments for most of the time), so it is definitely not at 140M yet.

 

I don't want to disappoint you but the PS3 is selling twice what it was last year. Because of a price drop.

Are you referring to the abysmal sales in the US last year? Cause it really wasn't that hard to double sales there. I could just as easily point towards the Japanese market where sales didn't improve at all or any other price drop in history for any console which didn't show continued rising of sales by 100%.

 

I am talking about WORLDWIDE sales. The PS3 has the biggest SALES POTENTIAL. 150k WW sales is a hell lot for a 399 console. If it is selling this well at such a price point, then just think what will happen when the price falls to 299 or less. I know a lot of people that will buy a PS3 at 299 or less, so quit trolling. And the PS3 in Japan will pick off once it gets some big games (FFXIII, GT5).

Trolling? Because I disagree with you that PS3´s sales will consistantly double once its price is lowered to 299? Or because I called its 2007 sales in the US abysmal, a period it often reached similar sales as the GBA? That is not trolling, that is stating the obvious. So you sir, you owe me an apology.