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Forums - Sales Discussion - Does anyone still believe PS3 will win the console war?

slimeattack said:
Kenny said:
slimeattack said:

The problem is that the Wii isn't getting any serious third-party support for a number. Quite a few people want to get a PS3 once the price drops. After that happens, the PS3 should get more third-party exclusive support, the public opinion will get better and sales will increase. A chain reaction.

And how much of the Wii's current success is owed to third party support, exactly?  Even if they didn't get any, that would just maintain the status quo for them, which is still Nintendomination.  Their sales aren't going to walk off a cliff one day if nothing changes as far as support is concerned, as the past year has already shown.  As long as the third party power vacuum keeps growing on the Wii, the chances of third parties continuing to ignore the Wii decline by the day.

Also, the chain of events you predict for the PS3 aren't realistic, because A) the price drop(s) that have already come to pass weren't enough to push the PS3 even close to the Wii (though they did push sales slightly over the 360), and B) if you've seen the software sales charts that NPD put out, the PS3 has about 40% less third party software sales compared to the Wii and the 360 in North America, despite enjoying markedly superior third party support compared to the Wii.  When amplified by the cost of HD game development, this makes the PS3 rather unattractive to third parties next to its competitors.

Before the price drops the Wii was selling 3x what the PS3 was, now it's 2x. Makes a difference.

 

 

 

Lol great comeback, you really showed him

 



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Currently own- DS, PSP, PS2, Wii, Xbox 360, PS3 DreamCast.

Man i have too many consoles..... 

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Phasma said:

Well said, you got many good points there. But the thing is everyone has played with a wii. But i still think you may be right, those who don't have it may get. I also got bored by it a little so i didn't buy it. I have lost completely my interest on buying a wii.

 

 

It happens. Not everybody likes the same things. :)



Sky Render said:
This will probably strike many around here as a very foreign and impossible concept, but there are people who enjoy games like Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Wii Play, and yes, even Carnival Games. But they aren't interested in games like Halo 3, Gears of War, Metal Gear Solid 4, or even LittleBigPlanet. These people, whom I'm sure many here would be tempted to write off as "casual gamers" and be done with them, are as valid of customers as any of us are; our money is not worth any more to the industry at large than theirs is. They are downmarket gamers, often new to the market or just disinterested in moving upmarket at the moment.

Blasphemy!!! Everybody should be interested in LBP. Don't say such a thing. :P



One thing I think is odd is that everybody keeps talking about how a $299 PS3 will see some amazing spike in sales, but they forget that with the massive profit Nintendo makes on the Wii they could afford a far larger drop in cost (% wise). Heck they could prob. sell it for $150 tomorrow and still make a few bucks. Not to mention that with so many first party games Nintendo can afford to sell below cost and easily make it back with Mario's and Wii Fits. Nobody else could do that by a long shot. They are making a killing at $250 while the Box and the PS3 are being forced to lower the cost just when they might actually have a chance of breaking even. Also $299 is hardly a mass-market price, unless you factor in the Blu-Ray which seems to motive just a handfull. Considering its the best BR player on the market easily it is very telling that sales are so poor.



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The reason, averyblund, is simple: the rules of the industry for the last 20 years had it stated that a console will experience its most significant sales after it reaches a "mass market price". The reality of this (that the mass market was only willing to pay $200 or less for a video game system) of course was conveniently taken for granted. The question of why it held no higher value even as the value of money dropped never really registered.

The reality of the situation, if you look at the trend, is that the market had entered into a state of value entropy. The real value of a console to the average consumer was actually dropping constantly. Even as other products raised in price, people at large still saw video game systems as not worth investing more than $200 in.

So the mantra emerged that $200 was the market's "sweet spot", without any consideration as to why this was. But now that mantra no longer applies. Or rather, it only applies to consoles which follow the "old" values, and not to any great extreme. One thing that people conveniently forget is that the $200 price point "sweet spot" only ever helped the console that was already "winning". The XBOX didn't exactly fly off shelves at $200, and the GameCube launched at that price and only went down, to lacklustre results.

The short of it is that a drop to $300 (or even $200) isn't going to boost the PS3 into the stratosphere. But it's a convenient idea to latch onto since it appeared to work in past generations, as long as you didn't look at the cause behind the effect.



Sky Render - Sanity is for the weak.

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Well atleast we don't have to listen to the peeps who said that the PS3 would dominate at its original price. I think they have moved onto the "ten year lifecycle". The rationale seems to change yearly. New years is right around the corner, I wonder what we get to hear next. Perhaps the 15 year life cycle? Or that "everybody I know is waiting till it hits $149". Who knows but it will sure be fun to watch. I don't know about sales but on VGZ at least the PS3 is #1 on spin.



XBL: WiiVault Wii: PM me  PSN: WiiVault

PC: AMD Athlon II Quadcore 635 (OC to 4.0ghz) , ATI Radeon 5770 1GB (x2)

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Sony can't beat Nintendo ever again. Nintendo is the best and you know it!



Now that is a statement I cannot stand behind. There are no permanently excellent companies. Satoru Iwata turned Nintendo's fortunes around with the help of Shigeru Miyamoto, but they are mortal men. They are no more immune to error than any of us, even if they do know the rules of the industry better than we do. Just as all it took was acknowledging Sega's claim to the market as valid by releasing a Super Nintendo to set Nintendo on a course towards decline, so too could it happen again. I doubt it will as long as Iwata is in charge, but I'm not going to hedge my bets on it being impossible, either.



Sky Render - Sanity is for the weak.

averyblund said:
Well atleast we don't have to listen to the peeps who said that the PS3 would dominate at its original price. I think they have moved onto the "ten year lifecycle". The rationale seems to change yearly. New years is right around the corner, I wonder what we get to hear next. Perhaps the 15 year life cycle? Or that "everybody I know is waiting till it hits $149". Who knows but it will sure be fun to watch. I don't know about sales but on VGZ at least the PS3 is #1 on spin.

 

QFT



WE ARE ALL STUPID FOR EVEN HAVING THIS CONVERSATION! I DON'T THINK SONY HAS A GAME THATS GOING TO MOVE 30M UNITS AHEAD OF NINTENDO IN THE NEXT THREE YR'S! MICROSOFT JUST SUX.? THEY COULDN'T EVEN HOLD FIRST PLACE WHEN THEY HAD IT. NINTENDO IS TO BUSY RIDING ON THERE HIGH THAT IF SONY WAS KNOCKING AT THERE BACK DOOR THEY WOUDN'T EVEN KNOW IT! AND MICROSOFT IS TALKIN ABOUT NOTHING OR SOMETHING THAT ALREADY HAPPENED OR HASN'T HAPPENED. SONY AND MICROSOFT ARE SALING AT 2 DIFFERENT RATES. SONY'S FIRST FULL YR. NETTED THEM 4M+ UNITS SOLD WORLDWIDE. MICROSOFT'S FIRST YR. NETTED THEM 5M+ WORLDWIDE. MICROSOFT'S SECOND YR. NETTED THEM 7M+ FOR THERE SECOND YR. FOR A TOTAL OF 13M IN THERE FIRST 2YR'S. WE ARE IN SONYS SECOND YR. AND THEY ARE ON TRACK TO SALE 13M+(AT 12M NOW FOR A TOTAL OF 15M+ WORLDWIDE). (THESE NUMBERES ARE BASED ON NPD). THAT MEANS THAT SONY IS BEATTING MICROSOFT NOT ONLY FOR THERE SECOND YR. BUT THIRD(WITCH IS THE 1 WE'RE IN FOR MICROSOFT NOW)YR. TO DATE MICROSOFT HAS ONLY SOLD 8M UNITS FROM NOVEMBER LAST YR. TO THIS YR. ON ANOTHER NOTE I PREFURE TO HAVE A CONSOLE THAT WILL BE AROUND LONG ENOUHG FOR THE DEVELOPERS TO GET USE TO IT. THAT BRINGS DOWN THE COST OF DEVELOPMENT AND BIG BUDGET GAMES BECOME CHEAP GAMES. THATS WHY DEVELOPERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING FOR THE PS2 AND LA NOIR IS NOLONGER PS3 EXCLUSIVE. SO THEY MIGHT WIN OUTRIGHT OR JUST HIGHDEF.
BUT ALL I KNOW IS THAT I'LL BE SAVING MONEY ON PS3 FOR A NOTHER 8YRS. WARE AS NINTENDO FANS CAN LOOK FORWARD TO SONY'S LUANCH PROBLEMS AND MICROSOFT FANS CAN LOOK FORWARD TO ANOTHER EXPENSIVE CONSOLE. ID RATHER BE A NINTENDO FAN LOOKING AT A CONSOLE AT $300 RATHER THAN A $599 FROM MICROSOFT. AND NOTHING BUT GAMES FROM SONY. (SONY WII GAMER HERE)!