Paul_Warren said: "That is called a hopeful dream.
It's possible in my lifetime someone will find a way to make me live 100 years longer than anyone else before me and still be healthy till the end... it's possible that for some unknown reason everyone stops buying bread next week.
This website is about sales; past, present and future. The future part comes from analysing the past and present part.... mysterious occurences that make no sense and don't have any significant chance of happening aren't generally considered."
Yeah, well, when the University of Kentucky Wildcats basketball team was behind LSU by 32 points with 10 minutes to go in Baton Rouge, La, in the 1993-1994 season and managed to come back to win the game, and the same thing when UK was behind Duke by 20 points at the half-time in the 1998 NCAA tournament, yet managed to win as well. I think that there's no reason to doubt that the PS3 has any less of a chance to win than UK did in both of those situations.
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Actually, there is, as the analogy you provide doesn't perfectly match the nature of the console wars. You see, the console wars have always been based on momentum. As one system pulls ahead, public opinion of it improves, which leads to increased third party support, which leads to more sales in a giant self-sustaining chain reaction. This applies globally, and has been true of the NES, the PSX, the PS2, and most recently, the DS. The Wii has been exceptional in this regard in that they have achieved record sales rates with very little of it being attributable to third party support - just think what the sales will be like when third parties finally get onto the bandwagon. Of course, Nintendo would have to ramp up production even further to reap the benefits of that, as they are still selling every system they can make, which is already an incredible number.
Of course, the reverse is also true. As a system stagnates, public opinion of it deteriorates, which leads to reduced support, which leads to less sales and, ultimately, an early death. That's the road the PS3 is on right now, and if the history of the console wars is any indication, it's already too late for them to change course. When you combine this with the skyrocketing costs of HD game development, and the fact that Sony has already wiped out all their profits from the PS2 with the PS3 (i.e. their current PS3 strategy is already horribly unsustainable), the picture gets even worse. I know it's a difficult perspective to adjust to, especially when the PS2 was the runaway leader of the last generation, but you have to accept that the history of the console wars simply doesn't support your argument.