For North America I think there's a small chance for the 360 ending up second, but it's far too early to tell (I think it's unlikely though, but would certainly be relatively close). For Japan and Europe most people including the bulk of most vivid 360 fans seem to agree this won't happen (/by a long shot).

Mainly because it slowed down this time last year, and came back up.  It's called being normal seasonal instead of supply constrained.

Unless PS3 or 360 consistantly (a week here or there for price drops and budnles don't count), then you kow it's not going to stay at low numbers for too long.

(PS: I will ignore the fact that you are dismissing third party titles...)

depends on the 10 year plan.... PS3 cheap might sell well for BluRay....

Other than that, it'll never catch up 7M

will probably end up being a 3M difference.

The answer to the question is yes it is is reasonable to assume that at this point. Sure the deluded and idiotic will argue against that. They may even invoke the mythical ten year plan to create a new math to argue the point. Unfortunately for them Sony is in no position to dictate terms to the industry. They are not king anymore. They do not get to work the clock anymore. The generation ends when one of their rivals says it does. Which will probably be Microsoft in the 2010 holiday season.

That said Sony has a little over two years to win this shit, and quite frankly that isn't likely with the divide in place currently. With Microsoft having the lower price point by far. Let alone the fact that Microsoft has negotiated so many former exclusive franchises onto their console as well. Basically the PS3 has fewer advantages to draw upon this generation then any generation before. Not only that, but Microsoft is getting the third party exclusives.

That is far too much to overcome in that small a stretch of time. You have to be realistic about these things. It is actually more likely that Microsoft will trump Sony in Japan then Sony will trump Microsoft in North America.

Yes, because 8,000 a week, no JRPGs, and XIII years off, Japan is a surefire win for the PS3.

Well this thread regards a long term question. I can understand your views, for example by making premature judgements based on the short term.

Long term factors IMO are, (1) I think the PS3 will remain a viable product on the market for more years than the 360. (2) Sony has more room to cut down entry pricing for the long run and (3) Sony has a great reputation when it comes to consumer electronics quality / long haul game console competence.

I hope you are able to understand my views as well. But in any case it will take a long time for either of us to be proven right or wrong, so IMO it's useless to get upset about contradicting perspectives at this point.

Would be a smart by Sny to cut prices this week, maybe $50, so to brake MS momentum, otherwise the prediction that x360 may came true. In the Holidays people will look at price because this are dire straits. people won´t spent 399 on a console when there´s one at $199. They don´t go searching at th net after information. Most people will enter the store, take a look at prices and then get the cheaper one. So Sony better cut all prices. And launch a special BC SKU. (I wanna trade mine BC-less one for a bC one).

The PS3is certainly unlikely to catch up in NA, and I would go so far as to say "very unlikely", but it is not "set in stone" as many people are saying.

I mean, if you guys honestly think the PS3 is doing comparatively as badly in NA as the 360 is doing in Japan, I think you need to take a closer look at this site's core functions.

I think it's possible, but it's also likely that PS3 will win out in the long run. The Blu#Ray Drive is a big deal. If Sony releases a Value Pack later on in the future, say Console and 2 controllers, 1 Game and 2 Movies for I dunno $399 (obviously this would be 2010 - 2011). This will attract buyers who are overlooking it right now. Also when BluRay becomes a bigger part of the Home Movie industry PS3 will boost in sales as well. I think it's reasonable to assume that it will surpass 360 eventually, though it isn't what Id LIKE to see, but will probably be what happens. Already there is a decent sizewd commodity of PS3 selling just for Blu Ray.