I am currently using this for my lifetime predictions.

Going by that it is possible the PS3 will pass X360 in Americas, but unlikely.... as in the worst case X360 will sell 25 million, wheras if PS3 picks up a lot it has a chance to sell over 30 million there.

You will also notice in this the Wii has no chance of being caught in either Americas or Japan... and PS3 would have to make a big turn-around (similar to the one that would cause it to outsell X360 in America) to pass the Wii in Others.

The PS3 will never catch the 360 in North America. Just like the 360 will never catch the PS3 in Japan.

I can't see the PS3 ever passing the 360 in this region. The 360's lead over the PS3 is gigantic in America; in fact, the 360 has a bigger lead (6.5m) than the PS3 has total consoles sold (5.8m)! In order to predict the PS3 passing it, we'd have to see a consistent pattern of PS3 sales outpacing 360 sales for months and years on end, which hasn't shown up at all.

Another way to look at it is thusly: if the 360 stopped selling today, it would still take more than 2 years for the PS3 to pass it in American sales.

So it's not inconceivable, but it would require Microsoft taking the 360 off the market years and years ahead of the PS3, which is rather unlikely. Once the next group of consoles come out, sales for both PS360 will die off, as all the tech savants rush to get the latest and greatest device. I'd be shocked if this race ever gets within 5m.

@TWRoO, it will be 6 mln. PS3 in Japan by the end 2009 atleast.
It will be 10 mln. PS3 LTD with the release of PS3 slim.
Come on, you must be joking.

American numbers, PS3 is only by 1,5 mln. behind x360 on same lifetime. So far, if x360 reach 14-15 mln. in NA this year, that means already atleast 13-14 mln. PS3 by the end of 2009. Or you think with KZ2, FFXIII, GT5, T6, HR and etc. PS3 is going to sell worse? Not to mentionm 299$ price.

In Others, PS3 is going to make around 7 mln. atrleast this year, or 11 mln. total. It`s not even at 299 euro price. So far, 25 mln. will be alreadty by the end of 2010.

I recommend you to check your minimal expectatioons.

AND Wii in Japan is SLOWING down. This year only Wii Music and AC left for them. Why would it has any increase?

7 million in the US is an insurmountable lead for the PS3 to take over.  This is *not* too early in the generation to see that -- we're nearing the half way point already.

In order to pass the 360 by 2012, the PS3 would need to outsell the 360 about 179,000 per month on average.  And with the 360 all but certain to outsell the PS3 this holiday season in the US (can we just say it is certain?), that will leave the PS3 with fewer months to close a bigger gap.

Not likely.

The 360 has gained too much momentum in NA for PS3 to ever catch up.  It's possible it may even outsell it in the holidays this year, which would make it pretty much impossible to catch up.  I think the HD console market will become saturated, slowing the PS3 down enough to keep it from ever overtaking the 360.

@TWRoO: Wow, expected Wii sales for America is ~65mil?  That sounds like too much... more than 1 Wii for every 5 person I believe?  I'd think it would hit saturation point and slow down quicker - something like what happened with the DS in Japan, especially considering one Wii can serve a whole family.  America is only more frontloaded, and Others should take it over due to more potential buyers.  Perhaps I'm missing something?

Editing to try stop it cropping the edges.

no it isn't. When the Ps3 is at 200$ we will know reasonably well which system will finish second in the United States. Not before.

Well I think demand over there is staggeringly high... but you could be right, take 5 mil away from Americas and add it to "others"

However things like this:
http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=America&cons2=GBA&reg2=America&cons3=PS2&reg3=America&weeks=156

tend to convince me otherwise.... currently the GBA is still the fastest selling device in Americas (to the current point in Wii's life) Wii is trending steeper than GBA currently, despite massive shortages.

GBA managed over 32 million in just 4 years... so what could the Wii do in 6? or more years?

Why do people keep jumping on this.... just because last generation 70% (or whatever) of consoles sold below that, doesn't mean it will this time.... in fact the high starting points of the two HD consoles and the continued success of the Wii without a price cut will almost ensure that won't happen.

PS3 is currently at $399... and there are no plans to drop that this fiscal year.... so why do people think it is going to drop $200 any time soon.... My guess would be there is another price drop in maybe a years time from now... if Sony are "generous" to you it could be another $100 off.

That means it's almost 2010, and the console is still $300.... best case scenario in terms of price loweing is that it will finally be $200 by 2011 (or very late 2010)... so what? suddenly PS3 will skyrocket and quadruple it's total sales? yeah sure.