In my opinion, I would expect that any consoles released in 2010 would have to be green lit by the end of 2008, any consoles released in 2011would have to be green lit by the end of 2009, and consoles released in 2012 would have to be green lit by the end of 2010.

I see no reason why Nintendo or Sony would release another console in the immediate future, and they're both (probably) waiting until someone else makes a move (or they have saturated the market) before they release a new system.

Microsoft, on the other hand, is in an awkward position in that the XBox 360 is struggling even though it is the least expensive system with (in some ways) the best software line-up. The XBox 360 is simply getting lost in the mix and, although it is unlikely that software support will drop away like it has in previous generations, it will be difficult to increase demand for the system when exclusive third party support for it will become rarer and rarer. In other words, I wouldn't be surprised to see Microsoft release a new system in 2010 or the first half or 2011 which would make them the first mover again.

Half year ago there was a article here of a guy saying it wouldn't make much sense anymnore for MS and Sony to release a new console, and why of course.

Yea Sony had the biggest drop but the ps3 will continue to sell longer than the 360.  It's hard to imagine that anyone would pick anyone besides microsoft.  A big part of the reason why microsoft will be first is because they started this gen first, they are further ahead in the life cycle.  Another reason is because microsoft had good luck with being first this time, the 1 year head start has done well for them.  If they can just avoid the hardware reliability issues this time around they will be good.  They've got to show people it was a fluke not that they are just bad at making hardware.

Agreed.

Microsoft will announce a new system in early 2010, to be released in the fall of 2011.

I think MS around Christmas 2010 with a Halo 4 launch title release. That will be 5 years right from when the 360 came out? They will force Sony to speed up the clock on PS4. A 10 year plan is laughable there is to much competition now.

With how much the Wii is selling if they can keep up any of this steam N doesnt need a new system for a long time. Its just to big of a cash cow for them.

MS will go first, and with the way things are going for the Wii we are not gonna see a new one anytime soon.

Order they will come out
MS
WII
Sony

MS has done many things right with the 360 and started to build up a decent fanbase they can correct there issues and come out first they have a shot at first or second next round easy.

wii HD. SDTV is dying

That isnt a bad guess but sales would have to drop if they did it would be easy to up a few parts and make it hd and quickly relaunch

Not really.

Even inspite of the law in the U.S. standardizing HD broadcasting in February of 09, HD TVs are still in trouble and not doing well in sales.

The Wii will go last just as Nintendo always has to let the competition make their mistakes so they can capitalize on them.