Okay, now, I know all of you are going: "Oh yeah, right, anyone who says they're unbiased is actually so biased that it'll make my teeth hurt even if I agree with them" But really, I'm serious about this.
Now, to begin, I'll give you a little background on myself. I know fully well that there is no way to get rid of bias completely, BUT what can be done is to be aware of one's own bias and account for it throughout the formation of assessments and predictions.
I am a Nintendo and Wii fanboy, I've owned nearly every Nintendo console(skipped gameboy pocket and original GBA and Virtual Boy) and the only non Nintendo console that I've owned is the PS2 which I pretty much only own for DDR. I've followed the "console wars" since the Wii first launched and I fully believe Nintendo is going to completely dominate with the Wii.
But I also recognize that I have been wrong on many accounts before. I originally predicted the Xbox would bomb completely and Microsoft would pull out of the console wars, but instead they have released Xbox360 and has set itself up as a tough competitor to Sony. I expected PSP to fail utterly, and while it trails behind the DS, it is not without its own merits and maintains a 1 to 2 sales ratio against the DS, the closest ANY handheld has come to being an actual competitor against Nintendo. I also expected Bluray to already be dead by now, but it has done surprisingly well and has garnered support from numerous companies.
So I keep these points in mind. My biases, how I have been wrong, and also how I have been right. So now that the introduction is over, let's get into the meat of things. Don't worry; I have good points and bad points all around. I'll start with an individual look at each console and then wrap up with comparing the respective value of the features that each of the consoles have in respect to each other. I will point out myself that my arguments supporting the Wii are going to be more solid than my arguments for the other consoles, primarily because I do not own the other consoles.
Let's go chronologically and start with Xbox360. As I've said, I never expected the 360 to exist, and at first I scoffed at the idea that releasing a year early would accomplish anything, but over the past year, the strategy has been pulled off quite successfully. The point was not simply to increase the install base, but to use the time to gain support from 3rd party developers. Microsoft has had over a year to gain roughly 9 million consoles before Nintendo or Sony even launched. These figures are not something a developer can ignore when deciding what console to develop for.
On top of this, Microsoft has managed to gain an incredible reputation for its online features, which has allowed it roughly $50 extra every year to go on top of the price of the console for roughly half of its consumers. This allows Microsoft to even sell at a loss, yet still retain a profit through the Gold account and various other downloads.
But Microsoft is not without troubles. As great as its advantage has been over the past year, it is already close to being overtaken by Nintendo after less than a year. On top of this, Microsoft has found itself to almost be locked into a rut. It has basically become the iconic "Hardcore" gaming machine, and as a result has actually cut itself off from the casual gamer crowd. As it stands, it will take something really big to be able to break out of that typecasting it has been given. To make matters even worse, there has been the widespread "red ring of Death" issue that has been becoming increasingly problematic. While I myself cannot vouch for its existence or inexistence, it has become increasingly more vocal and more public. For those slightly less hardcore gamers that have been considering getting a 360, but are still on the fence, these problems will almost certainly make them wait a bit longer, if not decide to simply go with a Wii or even PS3 instead.
Next we'll go with the Playstation 3. Sony has had an incredibly rough year, since the PS3 first was shown at E3 with its $600 price tag to the bluray diode shortages and the fatalities at launch day and its bugginess that came before its firmware updates, lack of rumble and exclusive games and content have left it as the perceived weak link of this particular console war. Sony excused its expense by saying that it would be a console whose capabilities wouldn't be reached for 10 years to come, apparently losing site of the fact that typical console release was every 5 years. By the time competing console companies are ready to release a new console, technology will change and the cost of technology as a whole will be significantly reduced.
PR aside, much of Sony's problem extends from its own sales angle. Sony is billing itself as more of a Media hub rather than as a gaming machine. Its most emphasized features are 1080p high def display and its ability to play Bluray movies. The only problem is that these features become pointless to anyone that does not have a TV that supports this. The price tag of $600 is already hard for the average consumer to swallow, but when one would need to purchase a $1000+ TV in order to take advantage of those features, the price becomes downright unacceptable.
But it is far too early to decide Sony's failure. Many of the initial issues with Sony's hardware have already been addressed, and firmware updates continue to bring new features that increase the value of the system. A price drop has already been confirmed, bringing the 60GB unit down to $500, and rumble features have been strongly hinted at. Along with this, the PS2 is still selling strongly, allowing Sony more leeway in its sale of the PS3.
The biggest advantages that the PS3 has at the moment are two things. The first being that Bluray is actually doing fairly successfully(maybe not a clear victory now or anytime soon, but still doing reasonably enough) Many people are seeing numerous movies that are popular that are coming out for Bluray, and the PS3 does become a viable option for playing bluray discs. The second reason is that PS3 already has exclusive games in development that look to be casual gamer friendly. The Little Big Planet demo shows that Sony's high quality graphics not only benefit hard core gritty games, but can also enhance games that are casual and generally whimsical in nature.
Finally, the Wii. Nintendo has introduced a completely new way to play. You can argue all you want about it being tacked on waggle and a fad, etc. but you're only deluding yourself. The Wii is still selling out after some 8 months from its release date. This is unprecedented throughout the entire history of the gaming industry. It is already well on its way to surpass the sales of the Xbox360 within a year of its launch, giving it better than double the sales rate with no signs of stopping.
Where the PS3 and the 360 have set themselves up as "hardcore" systems, Wii has chosen the route of cheap, simple, and fun for everyone. Rather than increasing the power of the console, they have created and devoted themselves to a control style that has the potential for unique, innovative and intuitive control. Nintendo is appealing to a broad market that the PS3 and 360 may never be able to touch, releasing simple games like Wii Play, Wii Sports, Wario Ware, Brain Age, Cooking Mama, and various other casual titles that many people can enjoy. At the same time, Wii has already shown with games like Resident Evil 4 and Zelda: Twilight Princess that the new controller, when used properly, is actually capable of making a good game even better and more enjoyable. To further increase its appeal to the casual consumer, the Wii displays in the more standard 480i or 480p, which does not require an expensive TV to be able to experience the benefits.
Despite its incredible popularity and success, the Wii still also has problems of its own. While good games that make good use of the controller are incredibly fun, many developers were caught flat footed by the success of the Wii. This has resulted in a veritable glut of Minigames, hastily made Ports from older systems, and crappy unimaginative wiimote peripherals that only reflect badly on the Wii console as a whole. Graphical limitations are another slight issue, but even more importantly are the AI and overall difficulty level of a game. Many games coming out for the Wii are aimed to appeal to as broad a consumer base as possible, which seems to have resulted in many games being watered down, and AI being dumbed down in order to create an easy gaming experience, but this creates drawbacks of becoming too easy for the more hardcore gamer, and also damaging the replay value for all gamers. The issue of difficulty can be relatively easily addressed simply by reintroducing scaleable difficulty, and allowing AI to scale with the difficulty, but there are no guarantees that developers will be bothered to include this.
Nintendo also places itself in a very tenuous position in the long run. As it has tapped into a completely untapped market, there is no way to know exactly how this market will react. This casual gamer market may be more fickle, and may simply drop the Wii entirely after getting bored with the first game, instead of looking for a new game to play, or perhaps they will develop tastes completely counter to that of the hardcore gaming market, making it hard for Nintendo to justify developing for the hardcore market. 3rd party developers may not be able to understand or adapt to the tastes of the casual market and may come out with straight out bad games in their attempt to do so, which may turn all markets away from Nintendo. It is true that there is a lot of hype to the popularity of the Wii, but unlike most fads, this hype can be fed with a continuous supply of good games.
So now with an overview of each console, we move on to comparing the values of the various features and perceptions of the 3 consoles. While it is obvious that many will find certain aspects to be more valuable to them personally, I am attempting to evaluate the values from the perspective of the average consumer in today's' market. I will warn that most of my arguments are in favor of the Wii on these points.
The Wii is only $250 vs. PS3 and 360 at $500.
Some people claim that Nintendo is taking advantage of the consumer mentality: "Oh, it's cheaper, therefor it's a better deal," but honestly, this just makes sense. People are still exploring the capabilities of the PS2 and have come out with incredibly graphically powerful games for it. The Wii is surely capable of doing the same. While the PS3 and 360 are pushing the limits of technology, they are basically overextending themselves, appealing to an elitist niche that is cutting them off from the casual gamer in terms of cost. It is actually quite interesting how quickly one can go from "This is a reasonable price" to "that is a totally unreasonable price"
Essentially, PS3 and 360 are in the features list and price range of a small computer, but are still being viewed as a gaming machine. While their price is reasonable for a small computer, it is not reasonable for a gaming machine. Sadly, fun and games, to the average consumer, do not take precedent over bills, payments and other financial necessities. In order for a gaming machine to be accepted, it must fit into the consumer's life, and not force the consumer to fit their life around a console. Nintendo's choice to keep their price low has allowed consumers to buy the Wii without having to worry about if they will be able to have enough game time to justify the purchase, whereas PS3 and 360 will be seen as a significant loss if the buyer does not have enough time to play it each day.
Sony's Recent Price Drop.
There was a constant call since day one for Sony to drop the price on the PS3, and many wonder why it has taken even this long. To understand the reasoning behind this, one must consider the possibilities surrounding each move. If Sony stayed at their original price of $600, then they obviously would have continued to sell badly, especially with the lower price of the 360. However it is obvious that Microsoft can afford to make a price drop of their own, possibly without even needing to go into the red to do it. As a result, all the price drop may do is simply make every sale even more of a loss for Sony.
There is also another effect to consider in having a price drop this early. When a product drops its price before it's even out for a full year, there's the tendency to say "Well, if it dropped its price this soon, I should probably just wait a bit longer and it might drop again." Admittedly, this effect is unlikely to be the typical reaction, but it is still something to consider.
Sony's Sixaxis vs. Nintendo's Wiimote
There are three things that separate the Wiimote from the Sixaxis. The first is that Sixaxis, like the name implies, can register 6 different types of motion, while the Wiimote can only register 5. both the Wiimote and Sixaxis can register movement in the horizontal, vertical, and depth axis, as well as being able to recognize tilt, and twist of the controller, however, the sixaxis can also recognize yaw. Yaw is sideways motion; as if you had the controller balanced on a stick and then spun it.
However, the other two points are in the favor of the Wiimote. The first advantage that the Wiimote has is that not only can it sense its MOTION, it can also, through the use of the sensor bar, register its actual LOCATION. This type of control is perhaps even more important than the Wiimote's ability to sense motion. Basically, the Wiimote can be used as a 3D air mouse. Not only can you point to specific locations on the screen, the Wiimote is also capable of sensing its specific distance away from the screen.
The second advantage actually is in two parts. Where the Sixaxis is held in both hands, the Wiimote is held in only one hand. Gesturing with one hand is far more natural and comfortable compared to trying to move both hands in order to gesture while both hands are holding the sixaxis controller. This places far more constraints on what the PS3 is capable of using its motion sensing to be applied to in its games. The second part is that the Wiimote has a nunchuck attachment, which comes with its own motion sensor, allowing you to have two independently controlled gestures at the same time. Quite frankly, holding a sixaxis, or for that matter any classic style controller feels much like being handcuffed, whereas the Nunchuck has the cord to attach to the Wii, which allows you to pretty much sprawl out while playing.
Hardcore vs. Kiddie
Nintendo has been labeled with "kiddie" ever since the Sega days. Now they're wearing it like a badge and Sony and Microsoft want to have that. Think about it on a purely mathematical basis. Let's say that 50% of the population is kids and 50% is adults. If you develop a game that is for mature only, thus giving yourself the "hardcore" reputation, the most you can get is 50%, because the kids can't buy it. If you develop a Kiddie game, you can get 50% from the kids half, and then you can also get some amount of the adults on top of that, because there's nothing stopping an adult from playing a kiddie game. Also, just because a game is restricted from children doesn't mean that it will be enjoyable to all adults.
Nintendo also has the advantage that its motion controls benefit both casual games and mature games as well. Manhunt has already been given Ao rating and will have to be toned down in order to be released for the Wii console, this has actually gained a reasonable amount of publicity which may do quite a bit towards taking Nintendo from a "kiddie only" to a "kiddie, but also mature" console.
Graphics vs. Gameplay
Much of the argument for the Wii has been that graphics don't matter in a good game, while many others point out what a ridiculous statement that is. The polarity of this particular argument is perhaps the most out of touch of all arguments for or against any of the consoles. To say that a game cannot be good without hyper realistic graphics is simply irrational. If that was the case, then why are classic games still considered better despite their low grade pixel graphics?
But just as far off base are the people that claim that graphics play no part in a good game. Gameplay makes the difference between a bad game and a great game, but graphics are a large part of what make the difference between a great game and a stunning game. There is one disadvantage to graphics, that being that even as you improve graphics, it becomes more and more difficult to improve those graphics by a noticeable amount.
As I see it, the Wii is just at that edge where the effort invested to graphical improvement ratio is reasonable, whereas PS3/360 are at the point where a great deal of effort needs to be invested in order to realize the graphical superiority over other systems. Also, not all games and gaming styles benefit from more complex and involved graphics, meaning the PS3/360's features are wasted in these cases.
Online vs. NOT Online
Online is a feature that many people are clamoring for either to be implemented in the latest consoles. Indeed, I myself am both interested and also wary of online game play. There are cases where I would like to test my skills against players around the world, or even just simply to have another person to play against if my friends are too busy or too far away to come over. However no matter what you do, this is still the internet, if it's not someone you know, there's just as likely a chance you'll either run into someone who is way too obsessed with whatever game it is for you to want to play a simple casual game against, a jerk, or simply really, really weird.
While it's a nice feature to have on certain games, I can understand the problems with bringing that feature to the casual gamer market that Nintendo is focusing on. Xbox seems to be doing incredibly well, and most people I've heard form are quite satisfied with the service, but at the same time, this is the more hardcore competitive crowd, so that has to be taken into account when determining how successful online play will be on a more casual market.
If it is to be implemented for casual gamers, there does need to be some type of ranking system which decides who you can or can't play against based on skill, so that higher level players don't harass players who are lower level in skill, and so noobs don't annoy the veteran players. On top of this, a basic friend system should be set up so that you can add players to your list of people who you will accept play against even if they are of higher or lower level skill than you, as well as a block system if you find someone to be overly aggravating.
For all I know, I may have just described Microsoft's Gold account service, but I honestly don't know myself.
By the Numbers
If you do a compare consoles and take the Xbox 360, PS3 and PS2 and line them up by launch date, you'll see that PS3 and the 360 are apparently selling just as well as the PS2 had been. This could be good news for them. Even if they don't "win" the console wars, they may be able to achieve success similar to the PS2.
Unfortunately, if you take a look at the PS2 vs. Gamecube and Xbox with lined up by release date, and then look at the Wii vs. the PS3 and 360; you'll notice almost the exact same difference. The vicious cycle of Less consoles sold = less developers, less developers = less games, less games = less consoles sold, may mean that even though PS3 and 360 are currently selling as well as the PS2, that they will ultimately atrophy from lack of support.
The one advantage that PS3 and 360 have compared to the previous console generation is that they are such different consoles compared to the Wii that there will still likely be demand for them despite Wii's massive success. Whether both will be capable of capitalizing on this, or if only one of the two will manage to lock itself into second place has yet to be determined.
Wrapping Up
Basically, the Wii will be dominating, and as it continues to dominate, it will draw in both old and new developers who will bring fresh ideas and fresh takes on old ideas. Just like with the DS and the PS2, there will likely be a number of bad games, but there will also eventually be an extensive library of good games for all ranges of genres. Provided developers maintain quality in the games they produce for the Wii, it will continue to be popular.
While the 360 has managed an incredible lead over the past year, between its recent drop in sale rate and the more and more widespread problems of Red Ring of Death, it may be possible for the PS3 to continue its slow but steady pace, eventually taking the lead over the 360.
I see the Wii surpassing the 360 by the end of September, and continuing to sell out almost up until Christmas, and possibly beyond. If The PS3 surpasses the 360, it will not be until at least the end of 08. The most important factor for PS3 is to find developers that are actually capable of bringing out the potential that Sony claims the PS3 possesses. Until this point, Sony will only be seen as more expensive, but not better than the 360. Alternately, if 360 does not specifically address the Red Ring of Death issues, than people may see the 360 as being cheaper, but not reliable enough to be worth choosing over the PS3.
So there you go. There's obviously a bias towards the Wii, it is the console that I picked and many of the arguments I gave are the reasons that led me to choose teh Wii in the first place. I suppose I could go the cliché route and simply point out that the world is biased towards the Wii, but I'll instead point out, as I said from the beginning, that getting rid of a bias is practically impossible, so all I can really do is account for it. I don't ask that you agree with my choices, merely that you understand the logic with which I made them. Even as I firmly believe that the Wii will dominate, I realize the issues that it has which still need to be addressed in order for it to continue to dominate.
Along with this I just as firmly believe that there is a need for at least one of the other consoles in this gaming market. No idea which one it should be, but I'm leaning a bit more towards Sony, I really like how Little Big Planet is looking and I wouldn't mind eventually getting LotR extended edition 1080p with the movies fitting completely with all bonus features on just one disc, or anime box sets with multiple seasons on a single disc, though that'll probably be a few years, after another price drop and when the HD TVs come down in price as well.
So, did I succeed? Bias kept to a minimum? Any points that I missed? Anything anyone else wants to add? I tried to touch on everything I could think of, but after I got to page 8 in MS word I figured I should start wrapping things up.
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Seppukuties is like LBP Lite, on crack. Play it already!Currently wrapped up in: Half Life, Portal, and User Created Source Mods
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