the PS3 won't get to 50 mio. I expect 42 to 45 mio. at the end of this gen.

the 360 will have 50 mio. around early 2011.

Whoops, double post

If the 360 gets to 50 million, it will be crawling over the line after the release of the 720

The PS3 should probably get to 50 million before this.

Sony has lost this gen and they know this for 1 1/2 years.

They are hard at work preparing the PS4 for a possible launch in mid/late 2010.

There is no need for MS to launch a 720 in 2010. I expect 2009 to be the year with the best sales of the 360.

I say no.

After the price cuts, the 360 has been outselling the PS3 WW, even in Japan. Granted that will not likely stay along, especially if Sony does a price cut. That said, I doubt that either will reach 50 mil, but if one of them does, right now the 360 is more likely. The PS3 library just isn't catching up with the 360, and PS3 sales are going to start to spiral downward if that doesn't improve.

Sony has lost this gen and they know this for 1 1/2 years.

They are hard at work preparing the PS4 for a possible launch in mid/late 2010.

There is no need for MS to launch a 720 in 2010. I expect 2009 to be the year with the best sales of the 360.

Launch a console and then replace it after 4 years? we're not talking about MS here.

It is impossible for Sony to be working on the PS4 right now. They may be thinking about it, y'know, getting designs drawn and things like that, but they are not physically putting parts together to work on that. Making a new system costs $1 billion dollars in R&D (Reasearch & Development), $1 billion Sony does not have at the moment to be spending.

As for a 2010 launch, it will never happen for Sony, and won't happen for the 360. The earliest is the end of 2011. I'm going with 2012. Sony has a 10-year plan, but that probably constitutes a new system being released in the 6th/7th year of the PS3, hence 2012 being the earliest date. Sony cannot and will not release a new console after only 4 years. Sega unfortunately (I miss you guys) made that mistake with the Saturn going into the Dreamcast. Microsoft did that going into the 360 from Xbox1 and they got RROD.

Neither 2009 nor 2010 will see the launch of an Xbox 720

If Sony launches PS4 in 2010 depends on PS3 sales in the next 6 to 9 months.

The bad launch of the PS3 forced Sony to start development of the PS4 very early. Then PS3 sales picked up. The situation now is ambivalent. On all accounts it is necessary for Sony to have a new console for a possible launch in 2010, if necessary Sony is 3rd in this gen they are the ones who need the fastest replacement.

I just changed the numbers to what I thought they might be. I hope they add up now, but there might be an error or two. I'm assuming that these numbers are the least these consoles can do.