This reminds me of some Hillary Clinton voters still not letting go...

Edit-Actually, this reminds me of the bargaining stage of grief: The PS3 won't beat the Wii in install base but...but...it'll still collect more revenue.

IDC was one of the only people who predicted Nintendo winning anything.

Which is why I don't understand how those analysts think Nintendo is dumb now because they should've seen their success coming.

It isn't so much the fact that everyone here loves Nintendo so they must rush in to attack these analysts - it's more of the fact that these "predictions" aren't exactly in touch with reality.  The fact is, all the signs currently point to the Wii being the clear winner, so it's the Sony enthusiasts that need to explain their side.  If you notice, even the 360 fans talk about 2nd place because they know the Wii is out of reach (the PS3 is the one that needs to prove itself).

Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it.

OK, Fair enough. I posted this is a previous thread:

"I actually think this is a very healthy, and quite possiblydeliberate. Third party developers have always complained that they can’t compete with Nintendo’s own games; that whatever they produce will be lost in Mario’s shadow.

Now they have a clear shot and some of them are definitely stepping up to the plate. Mad World, Conduit, COD (if they don’t screw it up again),Red Steel 2, Castlevania, No more Heroes 2, two Star Wars games and the other new third parties coming out will get the attention they deserve.

These are games that would never come from Nintendo and the road is wide open. A good “hardcore” game faces less competition and has a larger potential audience. With 30, 000, 000 out there it doesn’t take a very high attach rate to start ringing up some numbers.

There are more games in development than most people expect, especially the games in the works to use motion plus but needless to say, you won’t hear about most of them until just before release because there is a vacuum waiting to be filled and someone is going to hit the first one out of the park.

In other words, the critics, always looking for some ray of hope want to have it both ways. Nintendo is making too many core games so that third parties have no chance or Nintendo is not making enough core games.I think the upcoming third party games are very exciting and I think Nintendo is deliberately not crowding them out.

Besides if you had been paying attention you would know that the Wii is built on making "experts" look like idiots. Acording to them it was going to be DOA.

There are several things to consider in this theory.

First, the PS3 has sold less than half the hardware of the Wii. Second, the PS3 has a lower attach rate than the Wii. On the other hand, PS3 software tends to cost more than Wii software (most PS3 games are $60 (USD) while Wii games can range from $30 to $50.

So .5* hardware * .95 * software per console * 1.5 pricepoint = 0.7125

Figuring an equalization of attach rates and treating the price differential as a constant, Sony could exceed the Wii's software sales if it had two-thirds as many console sold. So if the Wii sells 100M units, the PS3 could have more software revenue with only 70M units sold. (If the pricepoint ratio is considered to be 1.33 (60 vs. 45), then it is 75M, it the pricepoint ratio is considered to be 1.2 (top game prices only of 60 vs 50), then it is 83+M.)

The question to be raised is what is going to spur PS3 sales. One factor is BR-DVD. But that group who are buying it as a Profile 2 player are probably not going to help raise (and may even lower) the attach rate, which would change the equation.

The PS2 owners have migrated to all the different consoles of this generation, so they cannot be counted upon to lift the count of PS3s.

Basically though, only time will tell.

And Megaman2, while you may think that citing old analysts reports does not mean anything, it does show that their track record is pretty bad -- which is germane in this instance since you are basing your claim on the report of an analyst.

To that end, I thought I would include two links:

http://gametunnel.com/articles.php?id=265 -- someone who thought the Revolution might be a revolution.

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Analyst_predictions -- a Wiki of predictions.

Mike from Morgantown

Whoever put together that Wiki deserves a lot of credit. Anyone that thinks analysts have any special insight need to take a hard look at their past predictions.

They could be right or wrong at any time...

the ninty fanz are going to kill this man. its a good job he isnt a member of vgc because he would get a ban for creating a flame topic

 True, but people need to learn that its called,"prediction" for a reason...