Anallyst: PS3 Will Generate More Software Revenue Than Wii

[mike_intellivision]

There are several things to consider in this theory.

First, the PS3 has sold less than half the hardware of the Wii. Second, the PS3 has a lower attach rate than the Wii. On the other hand, PS3 software tends to cost more than Wii software (most PS3 games are $60 (USD) while Wii games can range from $30 to $50.

So .5* hardware * .95 * software per console * 1.5 pricepoint = 0.7125

Figuring an equalization of attach rates and treating the price differential as a constant, Sony could exceed the Wii's software sales if it had two-thirds as many console sold. So if the Wii sells 100M units, the PS3 could have more software revenue with only 70M units sold. (If the pricepoint ratio is considered to be 1.33 (60 vs. 45), then it is 75M, it the pricepoint ratio is considered to be 1.2 (top game prices only of 60 vs 50), then it is 83+M.)

The question to be raised is what is going to spur PS3 sales. One factor is BR-DVD. But that group who are buying it as a Profile 2 player are probably not going to help raise (and may even lower) the attach rate, which would change the equation.

The PS2 owners have migrated to all the different consoles of this generation, so they cannot be counted upon to lift the count of PS3s.

Basically though, only time will tell.

And Megaman2, while you may think that citing old analysts reports does not mean anything, it does show that their track record is pretty bad -- which is germane in this instance since you are basing your claim on the report of an analyst.

To that end, I thought I would include two links:

http://gametunnel.com/articles.php?id=265 -- someone who thought the Revolution might be a revolution.

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Analyst_predictions -- a Wiki of predictions.

Mike from Morgantown