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Forums - Sales - HD Console sales break down for when or if the PS3 will pass the Xbox 360.

JaggedSac on 27 August 2008

* 12 months it would take 113k per week.
* 18 months it would take 75k per week.
* 24 months it would take 57k per week.


These are facts based on the current number of consoles.



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Kyros on 27 August 2008

That information would be very valuable if nobody believed it would.


If you had some information of the future this might be true. But everything you have is:

IF the PS3 wants to outsell the 360 it has to sell more than the 360!

Which has no value or information whatsoever.

Now you could try to provide some information about the likelyhood that this will happen. But extrapolating from the past at this point of time in the console race is bullshit. So you have nothing valuable left.



aavidbacon on 27 August 2008

I think that taking past numbers is not only a good start, is the only one. Of course one should consider anounced facts that we know will happen, but the past is the basis for an educated guess.
That being said, I don´t think that the ps3 will outsell x360 in this xmas, but in the next, taking that last year all the consoles managed to sell in the last 4 months of the year a little more than the rest of the year:
x360 for example, sold 3,8 mill till august 07 and than another 4 mill in the rest of the yea. If that is reapeated, even if roughly. The ps3 will only gain a 3 mill advantage over the x360, not enough to cover the 6,5 mill gap that exists today.
And the lead matters if is devoloped a strategy to gather the 3Parties again.



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Spankey on 27 August 2008
aavidbacon said:
I think that taking past numbers is not only a good start, is the only one. Of course one should consider anounced facts that we know will happen, but the past is the basis for an educated guess.
That being said, I don´t think that the ps3 will outsell x360 in this xmas, but in the next, taking that last year all the consoles managed to sell in the last 4 months of the year a little more than the rest of the year:
x360 for example, sold 3,8 mill till august 07 and than another 4 mill in the rest of the yea. If that is reapeated, even if roughly. The ps3 will only gain a 3 mill advantage over the x360, not enough to cover the 6,5 mill gap that exists today.
And the lead matters if is devoloped a strategy to gather the 3Parties again.

 

I agree for the most part except for the bolded. the gap is  about 5.5 million now



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Impulsivity on 27 August 2008
Squilliam said:
Impulsivity said:
While yes it is at a somewhat slow (but steady) pace most months, console wars are won and lost in big bursts. More ground can be gained and lost in a month between Thanksgiving and Christmas then in the entire rest of the year for instance. Also big release weeks make large dents, and there are a lot of those coming for the PS3 (I really think that Little Big Planet will be more of a game changer then MGS4 since it expands the audience in a much larger way).

The way it really seems to be is a weekly advantage of 30k to Sony with occasional jumps to 100k or more with big releases. If that continues (and price drops on the 360 don't seem to be changing much) the eventual 299 price drop and big releases will easily let the PS3 overtake the 360 by the end of next year when it will still matter. All thats left is the NA market, The PS3 is ahead of the 360 throughout the rest of the world.

Additionally the pace of PS3 sales have been accelerating rather profoundly, while the 360 sales have more or less stagnated (and will almost certainly decrease as the 360 hits its saturation point of around 30-35 million consoles at which point almost all of their core audience will have one just like with the original).

The only big weeks for the 360 on the horizon are GOW2 week and Fable 2 week. Unfortunately most of the audience for those two games bought a 360 long ago with Halo 3 or Gears of War One. There is no real week you can point to in the upcoming months and say "that will be a good week for the 360" while there are at least a half dozen of those weeks for the PS3.

Why all this talk of stagnation 11 days before a major price cut? Can't you at least wait until after....

 

   Isn't the 360 down to 299 already?  I just checked Amazon and after going WAY down to 74th on the video game sales charts I ran into the 299.99 20GB 360.  Sure its sitting 70 places behind the PS3 and the Wii, but at least its 15 places ahead of the PS2!  Think it had two weeks where it was ahead of the PS3 after the 50 dollar cut, then right back to barely beating out the PS2 for last.

 

   I talk about stagnation because the market for the 360 is limited.  They talked a good "everyone can play" game at E3, but the 360 remains what the Xbox always was, the gamerboy machine.  Everyone can play the Wii, everyone could play the PS2, the PS3 is ramping up so everyone can play more so (Little Big Planet being key in that move) but the 360 is only for you if you're male and under 30 or your little brother/teenage son if you're over 30.

 




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goddog on 27 August 2008

@impulsivity, there have been many articals dealing with the reliability of amazon, and it has basicaly come down to their positions fluctuate too quickly to be of any real help. yes the 20 is price cut already, but many places are out and outside of target (which select stores seem to have somehow missed the 60 is 349) the stores are all charging standard pricing. some people do not buy clearence, so until a real sustained price drop the one up and coming kicks in, we will not know what that could do for the system.

I also have to disagree with useres, thats your opinion, i see no difference between the 360 and ps3 useres base, they generaly are targeted at an older crowed yes, but at women and men (i know quite a few girls addicted to viva pinata). LBP will not change its image it might help much like VP or any one of those silly games with special controllers... but it wont change a carefully crafted marketing image. unless they change the marketing completely ... i do not see sony or ms doing that. nintendo has the luxury of everyone know its main stable games so the family push grew its brand, and its core mario/zelda/extra stayed intact. sony does have a core history but that has been muddied by core PS identities loss/or multiplat so they must push the core message, while ms is still growing their image though the push.




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Darc Requiem on 27 August 2008
Spankey said:

A lot of people seem to be confusing projection and prediction.
If posters don't agree with Stevens numbers, please could you provide your own?

 

They won't provide their own because if they did they'd come out just like Steven's. Libellule has been all over this thread and I have yet to see him post an actual response to Steven's numbers. Is it so hard to say" I disagree with the OP because ______.  I think this will happen because of _______." ?



libellule on 27 August 2008
libellule said:
+1 for Kyros

I believe the PS3 as the most expensive console will see a big bump for Xmas sales as people like to buy expensive at the end the year.
I believe BR will continue to increase his market share and increase the value of the PS3 (balancing the expensive price of the console).
I believe not all the first party games will bomb as "Lair".
I believe a PS3 at 300$ will appear "somewhere" in 09.

MS should have dropped the price in 07.

 

==>

Darc Requiem,

you should read the thread before posting ...

I also add my sig : Brandname is very important (guess why Xbox360 is suffering in PAL/Japan...)



Time to Work !

Darc Requiem on 27 August 2008
libellule said:
libellule said:
+1 for Kyros

I believe the PS3 as the most expensive console will see a big bump for Xmas sales as people like to buy expensive at the end the year.
I believe BR will continue to increase his market share and increase the value of the PS3 (balancing the expensive price of the console).
I believe not all the first party games will bomb as "Lair".
I believe a PS3 at 300$ will appear "somewhere" in 09.

MS should have dropped the price in 07.

 

==>

Darc Requiem,

you should read the thread before posting ...

I also add my sig : Brandname is very important (guess why Xbox360 is suffering in PAL/Japan...)

 

You are absolutely right. I must of missed that post and thus I owe you an apology. Sorry Libellule. You have already posted your reasons for your disagreement with the OP.



Squilliam on 27 August 2008
Impulsivity said:
Squilliam said:
Impulsivity said:
While yes it is at a somewhat slow (but steady) pace most months, console wars are won and lost in big bursts. More ground can be gained and lost in a month between Thanksgiving and Christmas then in the entire rest of the year for instance. Also big release weeks make large dents, and there are a lot of those coming for the PS3 (I really think that Little Big Planet will be more of a game changer then MGS4 since it expands the audience in a much larger way).

The way it really seems to be is a weekly advantage of 30k to Sony with occasional jumps to 100k or more with big releases. If that continues (and price drops on the 360 don't seem to be changing much) the eventual 299 price drop and big releases will easily let the PS3 overtake the 360 by the end of next year when it will still matter. All thats left is the NA market, The PS3 is ahead of the 360 throughout the rest of the world.

Additionally the pace of PS3 sales have been accelerating rather profoundly, while the 360 sales have more or less stagnated (and will almost certainly decrease as the 360 hits its saturation point of around 30-35 million consoles at which point almost all of their core audience will have one just like with the original).

The only big weeks for the 360 on the horizon are GOW2 week and Fable 2 week. Unfortunately most of the audience for those two games bought a 360 long ago with Halo 3 or Gears of War One. There is no real week you can point to in the upcoming months and say "that will be a good week for the 360" while there are at least a half dozen of those weeks for the PS3.

Why all this talk of stagnation 11 days before a major price cut? Can't you at least wait until after....

 

   Isn't the 360 down to 299 already?  I just checked Amazon and after going WAY down to 74th on the video game sales charts I ran into the 299.99 20GB 360.  Sure its sitting 70 places behind the PS3 and the Wii, but at least its 15 places ahead of the PS2!  Think it had two weeks where it was ahead of the PS3 after the 50 dollar cut, then right back to barely beating out the PS2 for last.

 

   I talk about stagnation because the market for the 360 is limited.  They talked a good "everyone can play" game at E3, but the 360 remains what the Xbox always was, the gamerboy machine.  Everyone can play the Wii, everyone could play the PS2, the PS3 is ramping up so everyone can play more so (Little Big Planet being key in that move) but the 360 is only for you if you're male and under 30 or your little brother/teenage son if you're over 30.

 

If the PS3 is even near to the Wii then obviously the rankings on Amazon are wrong. Since i've seen a lot of people pushing those numbers for PS3 success I can assume they generally favor the PS3 or they wouldn't be used. Furthermore the people already on Amazon can be assumed to be internet savvy so theres a greater chance that they already know about the 60gb model coming, well at least in far greater numbers than the people who aren't.

Your last paragraph is wrong, fewer people can play games on the PS3 because its simply too expensive. It doesn't matter if they include all of the mainstream games in the world if the price is not mainstream. At least the Xbox 360 its going to hit that mainstream price in about 11 days so we can see then. You could wait a further month if you'd like to see the official NPD data if you want.

 



Tease.