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Forums - Sales - Interesting NPD analysis

John_Doe on 17 August 2008
Sqrl said:
Bodhesatva said:

Here we go, I just did cross analysis.


PS2 owners are:

~2% less likely to buy a Wii than the average consumer
~3% less likely to buy a 360 than the average consumer
~16% more likely to buy a PS3 than the average consumer

So it seems likely that "brand loyalty" nets you about 15% better sales among your base of past-generation users.

 

How are you getting those numbers?

[(21/18)-1] x100 = 16.67

[(38/39)-1] x100 =-2

 



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Sqrl on 17 August 2008
Bodhesatva said:
Sqrl said:
Bodhesatva said:

Here we go, I just did cross analysis.


PS2 owners are:

~2% less likely to buy a Wii than the average consumer
~3% less likely to buy a 360 than the average consumer
~16% more likely to buy a PS3 than the average consumer

So it seems likely that "brand loyalty" nets you about 15% better sales among your base of past-generation users.

 

How are you getting those numbers?

 

Look at my post earlier in the thread. I give total marketshare for each system (As in, everyone in the US) against marketshare of PS2 users (as in, everyone who has upgraded from the PS2).

Total marketshare according to NPD:

Wii: ~42%
360: ~39%
PS3: ~18%

Marketshare specifically of upgraded PS2 owners:

Wii: ~41%
360: ~38%
PS3: ~21%


Now just compare the marketshares.

Give me a little more credit than that .  I've looked over that post and I still don't see how you're getting the PS3 at 16%.

 
To Each Man, Responsibility
Bodhesatva on 17 August 2008
Sqrl said:
Bodhesatva said:
Sqrl said:
Bodhesatva said:

Here we go, I just did cross analysis.


PS2 owners are:

~2% less likely to buy a Wii than the average consumer
~3% less likely to buy a 360 than the average consumer
~16% more likely to buy a PS3 than the average consumer

So it seems likely that "brand loyalty" nets you about 15% better sales among your base of past-generation users.

 

How are you getting those numbers?

 

Look at my post earlier in the thread. I give total marketshare for each system (As in, everyone in the US) against marketshare of PS2 users (as in, everyone who has upgraded from the PS2).

Total marketshare according to NPD:

Wii: ~42%
360: ~39%
PS3: ~18%

Marketshare specifically of upgraded PS2 owners:

Wii: ~41%
360: ~38%
PS3: ~21%


Now just compare the marketshares.

Give me a little more credit than that . I've looked over that post and I still don't see how you're getting the PS3 at 16%.

 

 

Actually that gives you less credit! Because the last step is the easier part.

Wii goes from 42 to 41%, a 2.4% drop in marketshare.
360 goes from 39 to 38%, a 2.6% drop in marketshare.
PS3 goes from 18 to 21%, a 16.4% increase in marketshare.



http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">

Sqrl on 17 August 2008
John_Doe said:
Sqrl said:
Bodhesatva said:

Here we go, I just did cross analysis.


PS2 owners are:

~2% less likely to buy a Wii than the average consumer
~3% less likely to buy a 360 than the average consumer
~16% more likely to buy a PS3 than the average consumer

So it seems likely that "brand loyalty" nets you about 15% better sales among your base of past-generation users.

 

How are you getting those numbers?

[(21/18)-1] x100 = 16.67

[(38/39)-1] x100 =-2

 

Thats what I was looking for. Thanks~

 
To Each Man, Responsibility
Sqrl on 17 August 2008
Bodhesatva said:
Sqrl said:

Give me a little more credit than that . I've looked over that post and I still don't see how you're getting the PS3 at 16%.

 

 

Actually that gives you less credit! Because the last step is easy.

Wii goes from 42 to 41%, a 2.4% drop in marketshare.
360 goes from 39 to 38%, a 2.6% drop in marketshare.
PS3 goes from 18 to 21%, a 16.4% increase in marketshare.

 

You don't understand, I wasn't sure what you were trying to show.  If I knew what you were trying to show I could figure the formula out np.
To Each Man, Responsibility
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Bodhesatva on 17 August 2008
Sqrl said:
Bodhesatva said:
Sqrl said:

Give me a little more credit than that . I've looked over that post and I still don't see how you're getting the PS3 at 16%.

 

 

Actually that gives you less credit! Because the last step is easy.

Wii goes from 42 to 41%, a 2.4% drop in marketshare.
360 goes from 39 to 38%, a 2.6% drop in marketshare.
PS3 goes from 18 to 21%, a 16.4% increase in marketshare.

 

You don't understand, I wasn't sure what you were trying to show. If I knew what you were trying to show I could figure the formula out np.

Which should be fairly easy! Others caught on right away, as you can see above.

You actually got the hard part, but tripped up on the easy part :p

 



http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">

Sqrl on 17 August 2008
Bodhesatva said:
Sqrl said:

 

You don't understand, I wasn't sure what you were trying to show. If I knew what you were trying to show I could figure the formula out np.

Which should be fairly easy! Others caught on right away, as you can see above.

You actually got the hard part, but tripped up on the easy part :p

 

So I was giving you too much credit?

Nah, its just been one of those days (very "blah").  Was just easier to ask you =P

edit:

I knew I was missing an easy step, but like an optical illusion sometimes you can't make your eyes focus the right way.  Doesn't hurt to ask, and I'd be lying if I said I was always right so no sense in pretending I knew if I didn't =P

 
To Each Man, Responsibility
MikeB on 17 August 2008

About 40 million PS2 owners in the United States.

That would mean for the US ~78% of PS3 owners also own a PS2,
~66% of Wii owners own a PS2,
~67% of 360 owners own a PS2.



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales

Bodhesatva on 17 August 2008
Sqrl said:
Bodhesatva said:
Sqrl said:

 

You don't understand, I wasn't sure what you were trying to show. If I knew what you were trying to show I could figure the formula out np.

Which should be fairly easy! Others caught on right away, as you can see above.

You actually got the hard part, but tripped up on the easy part :p

 

So I was giving you too much credit?

Nah, its just been one of those days (very "blah"). Was just easier to ask you =P

edit:

I knew I was missing an easy step, but like an optical illusion sometimes you can't make your eyes focus the right way. Doesn't hurt to ask, and I'd be lying if I said I was always right so no sense in pretending I knew if I didn't =P

 

 

<3



http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">

Sqrl on 17 August 2008
MikeB said:
About 40 million PS2 owners in the United States.

That would mean for the US ~78% of PS3 owners also own a PS2,
~66% of Wii owners own a PS2,
~67% of 360 owners own a PS2.

 

See bolded:

Sqrl said:

Interesting, anyone happen to know the PS2 user base in the US according to NPD? Using NPD numbers is best since this is NPD polling.

For now I will use VGC #'s which have NA at 48.45m PS2 owners and an estimated 43.61m PS2 users in the US. Therefor in the US:

8.29m PS2 owners have a Wii or about 61.30% of Wii owners.
7,85m PS2 owners have a 360 or about 64.12% of 360 owners.
4.36m PS2 owners have a PS3 or about 78.61% of PS3 owners.

The Wii accounts for 40.43% of upgrades*.
The 360 accounts for 38.30% of upgrades*.
The PS3 accounts for 21.28% of upgrades*.

*Where an "upgrade" is a console hardware purchase made by an existing PS2 owner.

The thing is that percentage of next gen owners who own a PS2 is only part of the picture.  Raw sales as well as overlap are important as well. Although there is nothing to base overlap on within this data unfortunately.

 
To Each Man, Responsibility