@ Sqrl

Well spotted.

~42,554,000 (US install base July NPD)

~71.6% of 360 owners also own a PS2.
~70.9% of Wii owners also own a PS2.
~83,4% of PS3 owners also own a PS2.



I would formulate it differently, PS2 ownership is a characteristic of GameCube and XBox users at large.

A small percentage of PS2 owners owned a XBox or GameCube.
A very large percentage of XBox and GameCube owners owned a PS2.

What I meant to say in my previous post, those previous PS2 owners who are fans of games like Mario or Zelda games are likely to own or have owned a GameCube and Wii. Those PS2 owners who are fans of Halo are more likely to own or have owned a XBox and XBox 360.

Those PS2 owners who haven't yet bought a Wii or 360 are for example far less likely to be Mario or Halo fans. Just an example, there aren't many high profile XBox sequels left to push XBox (who may also own a PS2) owners towards a 360 (only Fable and 3rd party cross platform Star Wars remaining).

MikeB said: @ Sqrl Your February number is the PS3 number. Well spotted. ~42,554,000 (US install base July NPD) ~71.6% of 360 owners also own a PS2. ~70.9% of Wii owners also own a PS2. ~83,4% of PS3 owners also own a PS2. The GC and Xbox ownership is a characteristic of the PS2 users at large I would formulate it differently, PS2 ownership is a characteristic of GameCube and XBox users at large. A small percentage of PS2 owners owned a XBox or GameCube. A very large percentage of XBox and GameCube owners owned a PS2. What I meant to say in my previous post, those previous PS2 owners who are fans of games like Mario or Zelda games are likely to own or have owned a GameCube and Wii. Those PS2 owners who are fans of Halo are more likely to own or have owned a XBox and XBox 360. Those PS2 owners who haven't yet bought a Wii or 360 are for example far less likely to be Mario or Halo fans. Just an example, there aren't many high profile XBox sequels left to push XBox (who may also own a PS2) owners towards a 360 (only Fable and 3rd party cross platform Star Wars remaining).

That conclusion seems somewhat eronious.

You are assuming those with 360's and Gamecubes had upgraded faster then those with PS2s for some reason. This conclusion seems completly undefendable by any statistical reasoning.

Basically the same arguement "Crazzyman" made.

The fact that the numbers are basically indistinguisable from zero and matches up so well with the general market share of the sysetms makes this seem very unlikely.

MikeB said: @ Sqrl Your February number is the PS3 number. Well spotted. ~42,554,000 (US install base) ~71.6% of 360 owners also own a PS2. ~70.9% of Wii owners also own a PS2. ~83,4% of PS3 owners also own a PS2. The GC and Xbox ownership is a characteristic of the PS2 users at large I would formulate it differently, PS2 ownership is a characteristic of GameCube and XBox users at large. A small percentage of PS2 owners owned a XBox or GameCube. A very large percentage of XBox and GameCube owners owned a PS2. What I meant to say in my previous post, those previous PS2 owners who are fans of games like Mario or Zelda games are likely to own or have owned a GameCube and Wii. Those PS2 owners who are fans of Halo are more likely to own or have owned a XBox and XBox 360. Those PS2 owners who haven't yet bought a Wii or 360 are for example far less likely to be Mario or Halo fans. Just an example, there aren't many high profile XBox sequels left to push XBox (who may also own a PS2) owners towards a 360 (only Fable and 3rd party cross platform Star Wars remaining).

Well I think the distinction that needs to be made is that the numbers as they are here are true.  Its not so much that you disagree with them (since they are the closest things we have to facts for the purposes of this thread), but rather that you do not believe the current split will hold over time as we move forward.

I honestly don't think we have enough data to try and accurately predict how the numbers are trending much less how much of a factor past franchises will play in people's upgrade choices.  With that said I have no doubt that your theory will play a role in the way things shape up, I just don't know what role that is or how big of a factor it will be.

@ Kasz216

I think I am correct.

Those who like the XBox for its games are more likely to have upgraded towards a 360 (nomatter if owning a PS2 as well or not) as sequels to nearly all big XBox games have already been released for the 360.

Fans of GameCube games like Mario Kart, Smash Brothers, Zelda, Metroid, etc are also more likely to have bought a Wii. As those sequels are also already out for the Wii.

With regard to the PS3, it's the console with the highest entry pricing. I think many are waiting for the price to drop or for sequels to the PS2's most popular games, like Final Fantasy, Gran Turismo 5, Kingdom Hearts, God of War, Jak & Daxter, team ICO game, etc. I think it's certainly a combination of various factors.

Also note the 360 had a year headstart on the market, so 1 extra year of people upgrading towards this platform.

^^Thats the thing, I don't doubt that those are all factors, I just don't think we have anywhere near the kind of information to determine how big of a factor those things are or will be in the future.

@ Sqrl

Statistics of genetic offspring likelihoods was part of my education. I don't agree with your percentages on likelihood. No such figures can be given due to the factors mentioned earlier, which I believe greatly alters the long term outlook.

[edit]

Agreed.

Kasz216 said: blazinhead89 said: Well i own both a PS2 and PS3 Hey and i own a PS2 and a Wii... ancetodal evidence doesn't really work.

 

 I own a Coleco vision and a wii.

Paul said: Kasz216 said: blazinhead89 said: Well i own both a PS2 and PS3 Hey and i own a PS2 and a Wii... ancetodal evidence doesn't really work.      I own a Coleco vision and a wii.

 

I own a PS2 and a box of Cuban cigars.

Bodhesatva said: NPD recently released statistical data relating to PS2 owners. Specifically, the question was: if you own a PS2, do you own any current generation systems? The breakdown was as follows. 10% of PS2 owners also own a PS3. 18% of PS2 owners also own a 360. 19% of PS2 owners also own a Wii. There can be overlap here: for example, someone who owns a PS2, PS3, and Wii would be counted in both categories. Still, it certainly discourages the notion that there are legions of PS2 fans waiting to upgrade to a PS3, when the PS3 has thus far been the least popular choice for PS2 owners when upgrading, and by a wide margin.

I was one of the legion but went 360

 

MikeB said: @ Kasz216 I think I am correct. Those who like the XBox for its games are more likely to have upgraded towards a 360 (nomatter if owning a PS2 as well or not) as sequels to nearly all big XBox games have already been released for the 360. Fans of GameCube games like Mario Kart, Smash Brothers, Zelda, Metroid, etc are also more likely to have bought a Wii. As those sequels are also already out for the Wii. With regard to the PS3, it's the console with the highest entry pricing. I think many are waiting for the price to drop or for sequels to the PS2's most popular games, like Final Fantasy, Gran Turismo 5, Kingdom Hearts, God of War, Jak & Daxter, team ICO game, etc. I think it's certainly a combination of various factors. Also note the 360 had a year headstart on the market, so 1 extra year of people upgrading towards this platform.

I understand your resonings... and while on the surface it makes sense... considering the current distribution of PS2 numbers vs the current distribution of console ownership in general it seems highly unlikely that it would be a big factor... or even a small factor distinguishable from zero.

If this were a big factor it should present itself in the current numbers more prominantly.

I mean... lets further examine the numbers

Combined the gamecube and Xbox sold 30 million consoles each... (about.) What percentage of these people do you believe owned PS2s? (Inoring the fact that some owned both a 360 and GC.)

I would say no more then 15% and that 15% was a generous figure.