Interesting NPD analysis

[Sqrl]

MikeB said:

@ Sqrl

Your February number is the PS3 number.

Well spotted.

~42,554,000 (US install base)

~71.6% of 360 owners also own a PS2.
~70.9% of Wii owners also own a PS2.
~83,4% of PS3 owners also own a PS2.

The GC and Xbox ownership is a characteristic of the PS2 users at large

I would formulate it differently, PS2 ownership is a characteristic of GameCube and XBox users at large.

A small percentage of PS2 owners owned a XBox or GameCube.
A very large percentage of XBox and GameCube owners owned a PS2.

What I meant to say in my previous post, those previous PS2 owners who are fans of games like Mario or Zelda games are likely to own or have owned a GameCube and Wii. Those PS2 owners who are fans of Halo are more likely to own or have owned a XBox and XBox 360.

Those PS2 owners who haven't yet bought a Wii or 360 are for example far less likely to be Mario or Halo fans. Just an example, there aren't many high profile XBox sequels left to push XBox (who may also own a PS2) owners towards a 360 (only Fable and 3rd party cross platform Star Wars remaining).

Well I think the distinction that needs to be made is that the numbers as they are here are true.  Its not so much that you disagree with them (since they are the closest things we have to facts for the purposes of this thread), but rather that you do not believe the current split will hold over time as we move forward.

I honestly don't think we have enough data to try and accurately predict how the numbers are trending much less how much of a factor past franchises will play in people's upgrade choices.  With that said I have no doubt that your theory will play a role in the way things shape up, I just don't know what role that is or how big of a factor it will be.