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Forums - Sales Discussion - Interesting NPD analysis

Kasz216 on 17 August 2008
Soriku said:
@Kasz

Don't worry, man. I believed you :) It seemed kinda obvious though. I always knew more PS2 owners upgraded to a 360, and to a greater extent the Wii over a PS3.

Yeah, but it's still nice to see the numbers back up the theory. 

Looks like you get another argueing chip in your endless Kingdom Hearts threads too... there is no way to tell how many of each who "upgraded" bought KH2, but considering the sheer numbers, it defeats the whole "staying loyal to the PS2 fanbase" arguement.

 



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Bodhesatva on 17 August 2008

I think another interesting fact can be highlighted by comapring market share over the entire market and market share of PS2 owners.

Marketshare in the whole market according to NPD:

PS3: ~18%
360: ~39%
Wii: ~42%

Now, marketshare of PS2 owners who have already upgraded:

PS3: ~21%
360: ~38%
Wii: ~41%

 

Let me put that more simply, because I think it's a very important point: when choosing a next generation console, the PS3 is 15% more popular with PS2 owners than it is with the populace in general.

"Brand loyalty" is virtually non existant. If you owned a PS2, you're only slightly more likely to buy a PS3 than anyone else would be. I expect the same holds true for Nintendo and Microsoft, but because they were sidelined last generation it's difficult to calculate.

The main point I'm making can't be stressed enough though: brand loyalty is statistically insignificant.



http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">

Kasz216 on 17 August 2008
Stever89 said:
So this proves (or could prove...?) a few things:

Some PS2 owners are also MarioBoys!

The PS2 was for casuals - confirmed?

Overall though, this makes sense. You can't have Wii-like sales unless you have PS2-like popularity. Also, if this 19% of PS2 owners own a Wii stat can be used for worldwide sales (because I assume this is for the USA only, since it's NPD?), that means of the 31 million Wiis out there, at least 22 million are PS2 owners (using this sites PS2 userbase - 120 million), and at most 25 million are PS2 owners (using Sony's fiscal reports that adds some un-tracked territories), which means we can now say how many soccer moms are out there - roughly 7.5 million.

Yeah... you can't use it for world wide since it is the US... in Japan i expect it to be MUCH higher since the Wii is tracking higher then the PS2 and the PS2 like the GC...

and in europe.  Who knows... maybe lower since the PS3 is more popular... maybe not.

The thing is... you gotta think most of the people who upgraded were PS2 early adopters too... you don't go from early adopting to not buying till late usually.

Early adopters being the least casual market.



Kasz216 on 17 August 2008
Bodhesatva said:

I think another interesting fact that isn't patently obvious would be to compare market share over the entire market and market share of PS2 owners.

Marketshare in the whole market according to NPD:

PS3: ~18%
360: ~39%
Wii: ~42%

Now, marketshare of PS2 owners who have already upgraded:

PS3: ~21%
360: ~38%
Wii: ~41%

 

Let me put that more simply, because I think it's a very important point: the PS3 is 15% more popular with PS2 owners than it is with the populace in general.

"Brand loyalty" is virtually non existant. If you owned a PS2, you're only slightly more likely to buy a PS3 than anyone else would be.


Yeah... the percentage difference i imagine would be statistically indistinguishable from zero.



BringBackChrono on 17 August 2008
woopah said:
so that means that over 50% on the PS2 owners havnt gone next gen still, interestin

A lot of people had bought the PS2 just cos it was cool at the time, so not really surprising. This gen total sales still has a long way to go before catching up to PS2



"The accumulated filth of all their sex and murders will foam up about their waist and all the whores and politicians will look up and shout "Save us!"...

 ....and I'll look down and whisper  "no."  

                                                                   - Rorschach

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Bodhesatva on 17 August 2008
Kasz216 said:
Bodhesatva said:

I think another interesting fact that isn't patently obvious would be to compare market share over the entire market and market share of PS2 owners.

Marketshare in the whole market according to NPD:

PS3: ~18%
360: ~39%
Wii: ~42%

Now, marketshare of PS2 owners who have already upgraded:

PS3: ~21%
360: ~38%
Wii: ~41%

 

Let me put that more simply, because I think it's a very important point: the PS3 is 15% more popular with PS2 owners than it is with the populace in general.

"Brand loyalty" is virtually non existant. If you owned a PS2, you're only slightly more likely to buy a PS3 than anyone else would be.


Yeah... the percentage difference i imagine would be statistically indistinguishable from zero.

 

It isn't -- it's appears to be in the 10% range.


Still, 10% better sales? I doubt that's the sort of significant advantage analysts were expecting.



http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">

Bodhesatva on 17 August 2008

Here we go, I just did cross analysis.


PS2 owners are:

~2% less likely to buy a Wii than the average consumer
~3% less likely to buy a 360 than the average consumer
~16% more likely to buy a PS3 than the average consumer

So it seems likely that "brand loyalty" nets you about 15% better sales among your base of past-generation users.



http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">

Sqrl on 17 August 2008
Bodhesatva said:

Here we go, I just did cross analysis.


PS2 owners are:

~2% less likely to buy a Wii than the average consumer
~3% less likely to buy a 360 than the average consumer
~16% more likely to buy a PS3 than the average consumer

So it seems likely that "brand loyalty" nets you about 15% better sales among your base of past-generation users.

 

How are you getting those numbers?
To Each Man, Responsibility
Kasz216 on 17 August 2008
Soriku said:
BringBackChrono said:
woopah said:
so that means that over 50% on the PS2 owners havnt gone next gen still, interestin

A lot of people had bought the PS2 just cos it was cool at the time, so not really surprising. This gen total sales still has a long way to go before catching up to PS2

 

Erm...well, the amazing line up and of course the DVD player (DVD players were high in demand when the PS2 launched) helped too. This gen really has to do all with games seeing as how HD movie platforms aren't high in demand (heck...HD itself isn't that high in demand. Wait until next gen before HD really matters.)

I think that was only true when PS2 first came out in Japan Soriku.

I mean... PS2 launched over 3 years after DVD did in the US i believe. Hence the "Blu-ray players are wildly outselling DVD players 6 to 2" despite the disc sales not being way behind DVD.

Once the PS2 players start getting counted as DVD players... (if they do). Watch out.

 

 

 



Bodhesatva on 17 August 2008
Sqrl said:
Bodhesatva said:

Here we go, I just did cross analysis.


PS2 owners are:

~2% less likely to buy a Wii than the average consumer
~3% less likely to buy a 360 than the average consumer
~16% more likely to buy a PS3 than the average consumer

So it seems likely that "brand loyalty" nets you about 15% better sales among your base of past-generation users.

 

How are you getting those numbers?

 

Look at my post earlier in the thread. I give total marketshare for each system (As in, everyone in the US) against marketshare of PS2 users (as in, everyone who has upgraded from the PS2).

Total marketshare according to NPD:

Wii: ~42%
360: ~39%
PS3: ~18%

Marketshare specifically of upgraded PS2 owners:

Wii: ~41%
360: ~38%
PS3: ~21%


Now just compare the marketshares.



http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">