Oh yeah - Rock_2008 just wants to have a thread full of flames. I really, really think he enjoys seeing his threads go nutz, personally.

As far as the eu sales go its hard to know exactly whats going on there with both claiming to be ahead of the other although I think no one can argue that the ps3 does sell more there but by exactly how much is hard to know. The rumoured price cut that is suppose to happen for the 360 could really lock NA for the 360 and who knows how well the new 60 gig will go over in eu. As for japan with the 360 titles that are coming out this year it could be real close.

Providing if 3 PS3's are sold to 2 X360's sold over the next twelve months then PS3 can be in front of the X360 by July 2009. Assuming PS3 outsells the X360 by 50% from now on.

considering how many consoles are sold during the holidays i dont doubt this at all

No not a chance, that is crazy talk right there. Ps3 will not reach  an install base of 30 million before 360.

I dont think this will happen. I dont think PS3 will ever overtake 360 but not by 2009 for sure. Problem is 360 has the big price cuts coming Sep 7 while Sony has already resigned to not having any price cuts until after March 2009 with their 10m PS3 fiscal 09 projection which is very low.

The PS3's relative high price is simply down to Blu Ray. Yes Blu Ray is nice at times but it's also very expensive. So yeah, PS3 has Blu Ray but 360 has 199 Arcade model in a month. It's a game of tradeoffs.

Plus I look at the software situation and the big guns that will appeal in the west in holiday 08 are simply Resistance 2 for Sony and Gears 2 for 360. Obviously I happen to believe Gears 2 will be the far more compelling title to casuals out of those 2.

Personally I suspect 360 will outship PS3 the remainder of this year. We should see a big bump as 360's hyped titles start hitting, combined with the price drops 360 can easily average 300k a month NPD's in Jul-Aug-Sep quarter (if not more). Thats 900k in USA alone, plus currently MS is shipping as much to the rest of the world as they're selling in USA (example, 2.6m shipped the last two Q's while selling ~1.2m in NPD's in that time frame). So you easily reach 1.8m shipped in third quarter, plus add some overstock for the coming holidays and you could easily see 2+m 360's shipped 3Q, last 4Q MS shipped 4.3m, I think they can easily do 5m with the lower prices this year. So MS could easily ship 7m +360 in the next two Q's, putting them at 27m + by Jan 09 (and again, I believe my estimates could actually be low!). That will be very tough for Sony to catch..

Believing the PS3 will overtake 360 to 30m is based on a delusional mentality that some PS3 fanboys have that PS3 is in line for price cuts soon while 360 isnt. Obviously that just isnt reality, in fact the reverse is reality. Also I think the software situation generally favors 360, especially with FF13 now on 360, the biggest remaining exclusive title this gen is going to be another Halo game, and it will be unveiled soon on 360, as well there are growing third party exclusives like left4dead on 360.

You have yet to provide any real justification for such stark change in sales trends. Even when Sony had the MGS4 momentum this prediction would have seemed ridiculous. The momentum is on the 360's side at the moment and if the $199/299/399 pricepoint comes to fruition there is no reason to think that will change anytime soon.

@bolded

Thats the problem.... so far these price cuts are just rumours and screenshots. What if MS doesn't have a price cut this fall? We've been in this boat before, where everyone thought a price cut was coming for the GTA IV launch and it never happened.

The price cuts are just rumours. BTW: are the numbers on this site for real? PS3 is way undertracked. X360 and Wii are both way over tracked.
BTW: 90% of the mods on this site are Wii bias. For the record I am pro games.

I love this....

PS3 fanboys claiming their system will achieve miraculous growth in the next 2 years on the one hand, and on the other, 360 fanboys claiming that their system will outsell the PS3 worldwide for the rest of the year after only 2 weeks (being a fluke compared to the last 50), while the PS3 had shortages and a better value system hitting the stores in 2 weeks and the 360 had a clearance sale....