| Rock_on_2008 said: Second half of 2009 PS3 will reach 30 million install base - I predict by September 2009. PS3 will over take the X360 in worldwide console sales by July 2009. PS3 will reach 30 million consoles in September 2009 and be roughly 1 million consoles in front of the X360. As for the Wii well I do not care. It could be around 60 million install base by September 2009. Providing if 3 PS3's are sold to 2 X360's sold over the next twelve months then PS3 can be in front of the X360 by July 2009. Assuming PS3 outsells the X360 by 50% from now on. Remember take intoaccount the whole 12 months sales averages with the peak holiday season launches and PS3 exclusives that would significantly boost PS3 console sales. Discuss this fair prediction. please no troll/ flaming in my thread. Thanks. |
I dont think this will happen. I dont think PS3 will ever overtake 360 but not by 2009 for sure. Problem is 360 has the big price cuts coming Sep 7 while Sony has already resigned to not having any price cuts until after March 2009 with their 10m PS3 fiscal 09 projection which is very low.
The PS3's relative high price is simply down to Blu Ray. Yes Blu Ray is nice at times but it's also very expensive. So yeah, PS3 has Blu Ray but 360 has 199 Arcade model in a month. It's a game of tradeoffs.
Plus I look at the software situation and the big guns that will appeal in the west in holiday 08 are simply Resistance 2 for Sony and Gears 2 for 360. Obviously I happen to believe Gears 2 will be the far more compelling title to casuals out of those 2.
Personally I suspect 360 will outship PS3 the remainder of this year. We should see a big bump as 360's hyped titles start hitting, combined with the price drops 360 can easily average 300k a month NPD's in Jul-Aug-Sep quarter (if not more). Thats 900k in USA alone, plus currently MS is shipping as much to the rest of the world as they're selling in USA (example, 2.6m shipped the last two Q's while selling ~1.2m in NPD's in that time frame). So you easily reach 1.8m shipped in third quarter, plus add some overstock for the coming holidays and you could easily see 2+m 360's shipped 3Q, last 4Q MS shipped 4.3m, I think they can easily do 5m with the lower prices this year. So MS could easily ship 7m +360 in the next two Q's, putting them at 27m + by Jan 09 (and again, I believe my estimates could actually be low!). That will be very tough for Sony to catch..
Believing the PS3 will overtake 360 to 30m is based on a delusional mentality that some PS3 fanboys have that PS3 is in line for price cuts soon while 360 isnt. Obviously that just isnt reality, in fact the reverse is reality. Also I think the software situation generally favors 360, especially with FF13 now on 360, the biggest remaining exclusive title this gen is going to be another Halo game, and it will be unveiled soon on 360, as well there are growing third party exclusives like left4dead on 360.
