Ok.. what we have now for HD consoles:
http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS3&reg1=Japan&cons2=PS3&reg2=Japan&cons3=X360&reg3=Japan&start=39446&end=39663&weekly=1
it`s like from 1,69 mln. at the begining of the year went to 2,25 mln. after 6 months. That is 0.56 mln. in 1st part of 2008.

During that time Japan got DMC4, Disgaea 3 then Yakuza 3, Valkyrie Chronicles and MGS4.
Now, what is left for the 2nd part of 2008:
Afrika
Eternal Sonata
Cross Edge
LittleBigPlanet
Naruto: Ultimate Storm
Tekken 6

And with Christmas Boost it should easy cross 3 mln. and reach 3,2 mln. by the end of 2008. That is 0.75-0,95 mln. in the 2nd part of 2008 and Total 1,3-1,5 mln. in 2008.

Will that be enough for Sony? Will LBP ant Tekken 6 have any BIG effect on sales, that will help PS3 to get into 3.5-4 mln. sales?
Should we expect any pricecut in Japan or 80GB model will be more, then enough? =) Is there any chance for Resistance 2 and Motorstorm: Pacific Rift to have any effect on sales? Or maybe some western multiplatform games will help for PS3 sales? =)

What sales do you expect? =]

I don't think so. None of those game seem to have any pushing power. Not to mention MGS has been the only PS3 game to push PS3s.

Tekken 6 will push PS3s I think.

The PS3 would have to start selling amazing from now on to reach 3 million sold in Japan this year. The PS3 is selling crappy ever since it was released.

Conclusion: The PS3 will never make 3 million in Japan this year.

im thinking it will sell around near 3 mil

First of all,

"PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2008 with average weekly sales 40k.
PS3 will reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2008 with average weekly sales 60k."

LOL

none of those games will give the PS3 a bump in sales, MGS was suppose to be its saviour but one month after its release and sales are back down to -15k

I don't see anything big happening for the PS3 for its sales to stay above 10k up until christmas.

Tekken is the biggest game of those you listed for the second half. November isn't big in Japan...December is. So having Jan in the first half and Dec in the second half means you can probably just do 1st half x 2. But, since big games tend to release in the west in the second half...while releasing at Japan at a similar time (except for RPGs and text heavy games) its probably reasonable to expect PS3 to do 700,000 in the second half in Japan....except that in the first half the Metal Gear week alone accounted for .078m PS3s out of the .56m (12.5% of the total, vs the 26 week avg of 21k). Take out that enormous spike and weekly PS3 sales have been ~19,000/week.

As a very rough estimate the second half will see something like 20 weeks of 10,000 units

two weeks of 15,000 units

two weeks of 30,000 units

two weeks of 60,000 units

as a bare minimum which would be 410k+.

I think 500k-600k is more realistic. I did a check with our sources Crazzy - none of those games that you listed are in the top 20 preorders yet. I'm sure a few will pop up eventually but its not like Eternal Sonata was that big on 360 - 48k debut - might do 75k week one on PS3. Afrika & Little Big Planet I think will see similar if not smaller debuts in Japan - the latter has much more potential in the USA and Europe. Naruto chould be ~100k week one. Tekken is big in Japan - thats the one to watch. Not too sure how Cross Edge will do week one.

Just say no to unnecessary bolding of text!

Traditionally consoles sell about 66% of their full year's units for the year in the first 8 months of a year in Japan; PS3 is no different. So far the PS3 has managed about 600,000 units, and at current rates of sale, will probably have around 650,000 units sold by the end of the month. At 66% of the year's total consoles, that would put them at around 990,000 consoles sold for the entire year. Cumulatively, that would work out to about 2,690,000 PS3 consoles sold in Japan.

hmm i honestly do think little big planet and afrika will be up japans street, although they might not have instant success like mgs4 had i believe they will have good legs similar to those of wii fit mario kart wii, and monster hunter 2 portable, so gradually the games will do well, i believe tekken 6 will do well due to timing of release and will bring an instant boost to ps3, so i can see the ps3 pushing past 3 million but i dont think it will reach 4 million

Crazzy you have added an extra week.

In the graph you posted a link to the points represent the numbers at the end of the weeks.... so the week where it crossed 1.69 million was in fact in 2007.

What the PS3 has actually sold for 1st 6 months of 2008 in Japan is: 2,251,309 (figure for the week ending 29th June) minus 1,759,650 (w/e 6th Jan) = 491,659 Edit.. never mind this itlalised bit =)

So if in the first 5 months (January sales high in Japan, MGS4 release) it sold 560k... I don't think it can sell much more than that for the second half.

The best it could get imo would be ending the year around 2.85 million, which is 600k for the second half.

----
So far in the first 6 weeks (of 26) it has sold about 63k, I would probably expect similar sales for the next 6 weeks... bringing it to about 125k... maybe a bit higher for 6 weeks after (spanning September-October) taking it to 200k in 18 weeks.

I am unsure what kind of boost it could get through November-December as it was helped last year by the 40G release and lots of other things....but maybe 200k for the last 8 weeks is reasonable, ending the year around 2.65-2.7 million.