Tekken is the biggest game of those you listed for the second half. November isn't big in Japan...December is. So having Jan in the first half and Dec in the second half means you can probably just do 1st half x 2. But, since big games tend to release in the west in the second half...while releasing at Japan at a similar time (except for RPGs and text heavy games) its probably reasonable to expect PS3 to do 700,000 in the second half in Japan....except that in the first half the Metal Gear week alone accounted for .078m PS3s out of the .56m (12.5% of the total, vs the 26 week avg of 21k). Take out that enormous spike and weekly PS3 sales have been ~19,000/week.
As a very rough estimate the second half will see something like 20 weeks of 10,000 units
two weeks of 15,000 units
two weeks of 30,000 units
two weeks of 60,000 units
as a bare minimum which would be 410k+.
I think 500k-600k is more realistic. I did a check with our sources Crazzy - none of those games that you listed are in the top 20 preorders yet. I'm sure a few will pop up eventually but its not like Eternal Sonata was that big on 360 - 48k debut - might do 75k week one on PS3. Afrika & Little Big Planet I think will see similar if not smaller debuts in Japan - the latter has much more potential in the USA and Europe. Naruto chould be ~100k week one. Tekken is big in Japan - thats the one to watch. Not too sure how Cross Edge will do week one.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
