Ok, but how does this mean Sony is doomed? I never said it's impossible for the PS3 to finish last this gen, but it is impossible in my opinion for it to be doomed as a lot of people on here have been suggesting lately.

N64 was a success overall, it wasn't first but it wasn't a failure... 

how many consoles did n64 sell?

I should be an analyst. You can literally make up whatever the hell you want and people report on it like news. Dream job!

It did dry up quicky because it only sold somewhat better than the PS3 is currently selling:

http://www.vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=Japan&cons2=PS3&reg2=Japan&cons3=GC&reg3=Japan&align=1 

http://www.vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=America&cons2=PS3&reg2=America&cons3=GC&reg3=America&align=1 

Yes, it was a success, not a failure. However, the general concensus is that it was a failure.

Same thing will happen if the PS3 comes last. I dont believe the N64 or the GC were failures, the same way you would believe the PS3 is not a failure if it comes in last. 

 This is such a worthless analysis. Here's my breakdown of the "analysis"...

 DFC says they look at the past to predict the future. They use the PS1 and PS2 popularity to predict the PS3 will eventually become popular. Thats really insightful, but how does that demonstrate how the Wii is popular now. Furthermore, why not look at how in the past, expensive consoles were always flops.

 DFC claims that the Wii's popularity is not going to last forever.  But did DFC look at who is buying Wii's? Its the general consumer who are buying Wii's. The Wii is getting picked up by general consumers and hardcore/casual gamers. Who is buying PS3s? Who is buying X-Box 360s? What exists more, general consumers or hardcore/casual gamers? DFC thinks they can magically discount the Wii's appeal by saying it won't last long.

 DFC is betting that a AAA game is going to sell a lot of PS3s. A AAA game is not what's making the Wii sell-out, if the Wii is selling-out without a AAA game, why would the PS3 sell-out with a AAA game? Frankly, I think most gamers are burned out of AAA games and their high price tag. The power of a true AAA game hasn't been demonstrated- but did Gears of War really sell consoles for the Microsoft? Did Resistance really sell a lot of PS3s?

 The big question is: Will GTA/MGS/FF be enough to sell PS3s/360s? If gamers say, "PS3 + GTA/MGS/FF is not enough" then Sony is dead. The machine is too expensive for anyone to buy it for just 3 games that are all sequels and provide more of the same gameplay.

 The Wii already won. Get it in your head. If your grandmother and your baby sister wants to buy the console, the console already won. I cannot believe people STILL think the Wii will not "win" this console generation. The stupid machine has continuously sold out since November. Can you not understand that? Sheesh.

The big issue with everyone bashing the analyists:

You are no better. Everyone assumes that since the Wii is in the lead (and by everyone, 90% of people here think the Wii will have a 2:1 lead over the next system, or 1:1 with the PS3/360 combined). Everyone bashes the analyists, but you are doing the same thing. What are you doing only using arguments based on past systems to pidgenhole the future.

Maybe just Ckmlb, myself and TheSource (to a degree) think that this generation, might just be different from every other, since the PS1/2 left us in a lull for 10 years (ie, to expect full market dominance by 1 company). Everyone thinks that the past is the only way to go. John thinks that since from the SNES/Gen>PS1/N64 era, sales were 100% bigger (they weren't), and skipped a gen on such an increase, that this gen must obviously have a 100% increase. Likewise, everyone assumes that since the Wii is selling at breakneck speeds, and is the worst hardware, then it must be like the PS1/2 era where the PS1/2 were weaker (but only by a small margin).

So in the end, everyone, including the analyists are trying to predict the future based on past preformances. Some are getting mad that some analyists think the PS3 can pull it out, since the hardware is great, whereas the analyists would say that they believe trends still show the PS3 can do well. Both sides could be very wrong. Thats why I've called for a near-tie akin to the battle between the Genesis and SNES, and its conundrum: The SNES wasn't able to achieve dominance due to Sega in the US, and Sega never got off the ground in Japan. But again, this cannot be entirely accurate, because there is no Atari Jaguar, no Amiga, or 3rd-string that absolutely sucks.

About the Holiday 2007 comment about blockbuster software going to Wii. Let me throw my 2 cents in.

It's not entirely about the Wii being in the lead, and the entire cost of deving a game. Yes, thats a big part, but there are alot of other variables.

Consider this: what if the PS3 has a huge boost in Nov-Dec, or the X360 that allow them to beat expectations. The devs might look at trends, and believe the PS3/360 are gaining, and they become viable options again. Likewise, Wii software could remain like it is, and suffer with very weak tier ratios, and devs could worry about the blockbusters selling since tier ratios are weak. And finally, MS/PS3 could easily float a few million USD to companies for enticements.

I'm not saying any of those things will happen, but the fact is, the future isn't set in stone. The Wii could end up blowing everything out and getting 200m like John Lucas says. Or, it could bomb and do ~40m because it wasn't designed to go head to head with the X360/PS3 in the later years. Whos to say? All I know, like ckmlb and the others that believe in a 3-way race, there are many more holidays to go, and many many variables.

Well said, mrstickball.

Shame on you people bashing the analyst.

I love the analysts! They have made me tons of money, but mostly when I prove them wrong.

Ultimately, we can analyize/bash the predicters, but the reason they get bashed so much is they've been around so long doing what they do. I guarentee you if TheSource, Myself or Hidier were full-fledged paid analyzers we'd miss the mark too. Maybe not as bad as some, but still, there is so much about the video game market. It's still growing at such a huge, rapid pace, and with huge growth comes rapid market changes. It's not every day you see an upstart company like Sony totally manhandle the tried and true Nintendo, and vice versa.

So we just have to be careful. Now as for Patcher.....That's another deal. Let him fry. :)