The big issue with everyone bashing the analyists:
You are no better. Everyone assumes that since the Wii is in the lead (and by everyone, 90% of people here think the Wii will have a 2:1 lead over the next system, or 1:1 with the PS3/360 combined). Everyone bashes the analyists, but you are doing the same thing. What are you doing only using arguments based on past systems to pidgenhole the future.
Maybe just Ckmlb, myself and TheSource (to a degree) think that this generation, might just be different from every other, since the PS1/2 left us in a lull for 10 years (ie, to expect full market dominance by 1 company). Everyone thinks that the past is the only way to go. John thinks that since from the SNES/Gen>PS1/N64 era, sales were 100% bigger (they weren't), and skipped a gen on such an increase, that this gen must obviously have a 100% increase. Likewise, everyone assumes that since the Wii is selling at breakneck speeds, and is the worst hardware, then it must be like the PS1/2 era where the PS1/2 were weaker (but only by a small margin).
So in the end, everyone, including the analyists are trying to predict the future based on past preformances. Some are getting mad that some analyists think the PS3 can pull it out, since the hardware is great, whereas the analyists would say that they believe trends still show the PS3 can do well. Both sides could be very wrong. Thats why I've called for a near-tie akin to the battle between the Genesis and SNES, and its conundrum: The SNES wasn't able to achieve dominance due to Sega in the US, and Sega never got off the ground in Japan. But again, this cannot be entirely accurate, because there is no Atari Jaguar, no Amiga, or 3rd-string that absolutely sucks.
About the Holiday 2007 comment about blockbuster software going to Wii. Let me throw my 2 cents in.
It's not entirely about the Wii being in the lead, and the entire cost of deving a game. Yes, thats a big part, but there are alot of other variables.
Consider this: what if the PS3 has a huge boost in Nov-Dec, or the X360 that allow them to beat expectations. The devs might look at trends, and believe the PS3/360 are gaining, and they become viable options again. Likewise, Wii software could remain like it is, and suffer with very weak tier ratios, and devs could worry about the blockbusters selling since tier ratios are weak. And finally, MS/PS3 could easily float a few million USD to companies for enticements.
I'm not saying any of those things will happen, but the fact is, the future isn't set in stone. The Wii could end up blowing everything out and getting 200m like John Lucas says. Or, it could bomb and do ~40m because it wasn't designed to go head to head with the X360/PS3 in the later years. Whos to say? All I know, like ckmlb and the others that believe in a 3-way race, there are many more holidays to go, and many many variables.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
