RolStoppable said:
Just because you say this thread is based on opinion only, does not mean that I haven't pointed out some facts. Anyway... 1) The Wii offers many things the PS3 and 360 do not. The consumers will decide with their money which console offers the better overall value. Game lineup is your opinion. I don't think that the PS3 and 360 can offset their initial losses. 2) Things should go better is already calculated in the projection for this fiscal year: a loss of $500 million. Bluray vs. HD-DVD is at this point in time pretty much meaningless, neither format is anywhere near DVD sales. You don't have a chance to become the successor of an established format if you are clearly unable to outsell it. Same for 360/PS3: both have been unable to outsell the PS2 so far on a constant basis. Only the Wii constantly outsells the PS2, thus has the best chances to become the next dominant console. So Sony has supported winning formats. That's still no guarantee that Bluray becomes a winning format anytime soon or ever, at this point in time failure is more likely than success. 3) They still have to post a profit though. 4) But the PS3 is being outsold by its own predecessor worldwide. The PS3 is closer to be discontinued than the PS2. I guess we have to give the PS3 more time then, let's see how the big games coming out this year help. 5) I never claimed that Nintendo's strategy is perfect. But if they don't become the dominator in the market they are still profitable, so even in a worst case scenario for them they won't lose any money after all is said and done. You say graphics (in the form only the HD consoles can provide) do matter for gamers, sales numbers so far prove you wrong. Nintendo isn't as far behind in online gaming as you think, you may hate friend codes, but most people care more for the availability of games they want to play than features of an online network. After 18 months the Nintendo Wifi connection had already 5 million different users. Xbox Live is at about 6 million users after how many years, four? Who's userbase is growing faster, eh? Yes, there are reasons why Nintendo lost the last two generations. They lost the 5th generation because they were as arrogant as Sony is now, they pissed of 3rd parties, they focused on a powerful machine. They lost the 6th generation because they let Sony define the rules of the game and competed with a powerful machine and trying to do things just better. This time they define the rules themselves. They don't go for the "more power makes better games" route. They chose a different approach and so far it's paying off. They outsell the 360 and PS3 combined worldwide, easily I might add. Sales numbers aren't an opinion, they are fact. 6) I agree on that. But you have to agree with me that Nintendo's strategy to do so is clearly the best out of the three companies, because it is a calculated risk, i.e. it's not a neccessity for them to become marketleader to make money. 7) The PS3's best days are ahead of it, same is true for 360 and Wii. The PSP is not doing great. You look at hardware numbers and cheer about how it took marketshare away from Nintendo's handheld monopoly. Look at the software numbers and attach ratio, they are horrible compared to the DS. Also the PSP has already peaked, its sales are declining and software support from 3rd parties shrinks. I've already stated why Microsoft is in this business, if Sony leaves, the primary reason for them to enter the market has vanished. If Microsoft doesn't see a viable business in videogames they have no real reason to stay. Don't forget the most important thing: No matter for which other reasons Microsoft and Sony are in this business, if they can't sell a lot of consoles their other efforts are pointless, it won't be profitable. Videogames are their entry point, but if they don't get a big enough foothold in the market their other products they intend to sell won't make enough money. |
The thread is not just your post. I was referring to the title of the thread. This generation has not been decided. I was also responding to the fact that John Lucas likes to think he's right all the time.
Anyway...
1. We disagree. I think gamers will choose a PS3 or 360 more down the road, and many Wii users will also choose one of the others. I also don't think old people will buy many games. In fact, I think a lot of people bought a Wii for Wii Sports and will not play anything else. That's $250 for 1 game. I'm speaking about all the casuals that Nintendo is trying to attract. I guess we'll just disagree on the issue, though, which is fine.
2. DVD sales are predicted to flaten out for the first year ever, mainly due to a new format being adopted. You can not expect a new format to take over in only a year (it's only been a little over a year now). Both formats have sold movies very well so far and are gaining momentum. If people would just decide on the better format, blu-ray, it would be doing even better. At least the war has caused a price war and both formats will have 1080p players under $300 by Christmas I believe.
The PS2s great success competes with the Wii at this point, since the Wii is getting a lot of PS2 ports. Now that I think about it, I believe that is a big complaint on this board about the PSP...
I mention that Sony has supported winning formats because you mentioned 3 of their failed formats. None of them mean much when it comes to blu-ray or hd-dvd winning. I just tire of hearing that Sony only supports failed formats when they supported the 2 most popular optical formats in the last 2 decades.
3. And they can...although I know we disagree on this.
4. Indeed, let us see how the big games effect the 3 consoles this year. It will be interesting. I'll have PC, Wii, PS3, PSP, and maybe a DS, so I should be good to go.
5. Well I'm glad we agree that Nintendo isn't perfect. Obviously, their new strategy is paying off so far, but I don't think they will continue to be as successful for a long time.
About this online thing, though. The install base of the DS is used against the PSP all the time, despite the PSP being successful in its own right to me, and yet with 44 million DS users only 5 million have online accounts? I'd say 6 million out of 10 million 360 users is more impressive. I don't care that it's been 4 years. PC Gamers have had the features for free for over a decade. Battle.net has had many more than both of those numbers combined. Still, the DS numbers could be a lot better if it wasn't for the friend codes as far as I know about them so far.
Nintendo is pretty far behind. They just recently gave third parties code for online games, if they did at all. I think someone said they did. That's really sad either way. So far they only have Charged as a first party game on the Wii out of all the games out.
6. Well, it's hard to say Nintendo doesn't have the best strategy. They sold fewer consoles than the Xbox last generation and still made money I think. Meanwhile, Micrsoft lost billions. Nintendo is making money on every console sold right now, so good for them. I just wish they had added some more power to get at least halfway inbetween where they are now (Xbox level) and the PS3 and 360. The closer the Wii was, the most likely third parties could port all the games they are making only for PS3 and/or 360. It's going to be hard for gamers to not also get a PS3 and/or 360 and as those drop in price it will be easier to get one of those as well if you already have a Wii. Meanwhile, casual gamers won't be buying as many games.
7. The PSP is doing great. The DS is doing better, and it might end up beating the PS2 in console sales. Obviously, the PSP is not as successful as the DS. However, sales have picked up from only a $30 price cut, a new revision is on the way, this year is the best year for PSP games so far, the PSP is the most successful handheld not made by Nintendo by over a 5 to 2 ratio (25 million to 10 million Gamegears). This year (or next) it will pass the Genesis and the N64. Time will tell, but it could pass the SNES and NES, the latter at 61 million, which would put it behind only the PS, PS1, GB, GBA, and DS. Would that not be impressive? I think it would. I think it's impressive even if it's behind the SNES and NES. I think the PSP is doing great. I think if Sony just used memory sticks instead of the UMD it would be doing a lot better since it would fix load times and battery time, and it would give developers more space. Btw, UMD failed perhaps, but the memory stick is doing well. Both are Sony formats...
I don't think Microsoft or Sony will leave the videogame business, as much as I would like Microsoft to get out before they convince everyone to pay for online features that have been free for so long. What you are saying makes no sense, though. If they saw that Sony had a good idea with trying to own the living room and introducing all of these other devices they make and that is the reason they got into video games, then why would they give up that market just because Sony quit? I believe it would be much more likely that Microsoft gobbles up the high end side of the console market that could be split this generation, enabling them to do whatever they want without Sony interfering.
