Why this generation has already been decided

[windbane]

RolStoppable said:

windbane said:

The thread is not just your post. I was referring to the title of the thread. This generation has not been decided. I was also responding to the fact that John Lucas likes to think he's right all the time.

Anyway...

1. We disagree. I think gamers will choose a PS3 or 360 more down the road, and many Wii users will also choose one of the others. I also don't think old people will buy many games. In fact, I think a lot of people bought a Wii for Wii Sports and will not play anything else. That's $250 for 1 game. I'm speaking about all the casuals that Nintendo is trying to attract. I guess we'll just disagree on the issue, though, which is fine.

2. DVD sales are predicted to flaten out for the first year ever, mainly due to a new format being adopted. You can not expect a new format to take over in only a year (it's only been a little over a year now). Both formats have sold movies very well so far and are gaining momentum. If people would just decide on the better format, blu-ray, it would be doing even better. At least the war has caused a price war and both formats will have 1080p players under $300 by Christmas I believe.

The PS2s great success competes with the Wii at this point, since the Wii is getting a lot of PS2 ports. Now that I think about it, I believe that is a big complaint on this board about the PSP...

I mention that Sony has supported winning formats because you mentioned 3 of their failed formats. None of them mean much when it comes to blu-ray or hd-dvd winning. I just tire of hearing that Sony only supports failed formats when they supported the 2 most popular optical formats in the last 2 decades.

3. And they can...although I know we disagree on this.

4. Indeed, let us see how the big games effect the 3 consoles this year. It will be interesting. I'll have PC, Wii, PS3, PSP, and maybe a DS, so I should be good to go.

5. Well I'm glad we agree that Nintendo isn't perfect. Obviously, their new strategy is paying off so far, but I don't think they will continue to be as successful for a long time.

About this online thing, though. The install base of the DS is used against the PSP all the time, despite the PSP being successful in its own right to me, and yet with 44 million DS users only 5 million have online accounts? I'd say 6 million out of 10 million 360 users is more impressive. I don't care that it's been 4 years. PC Gamers have had the features for free for over a decade. Battle.net has had many more than both of those numbers combined. Still, the DS numbers could be a lot better if it wasn't for the friend codes as far as I know about them so far.

Nintendo is pretty far behind. They just recently gave third parties code for online games, if they did at all. I think someone said they did. That's really sad either way. So far they only have Charged as a first party game on the Wii out of all the games out.

6. Well, it's hard to say Nintendo doesn't have the best strategy. They sold fewer consoles than the Xbox last generation and still made money I think. Meanwhile, Micrsoft lost billions. Nintendo is making money on every console sold right now, so good for them. I just wish they had added some more power to get at least halfway inbetween where they are now (Xbox level) and the PS3 and 360. The closer the Wii was, the most likely third parties could port all the games they are making only for PS3 and/or 360. It's going to be hard for gamers to not also get a PS3 and/or 360 and as those drop in price it will be easier to get one of those as well if you already have a Wii. Meanwhile, casual gamers won't be buying as many games.

7. The PSP is doing great. The DS is doing better, and it might end up beating the PS2 in console sales. Obviously, the PSP is not as successful as the DS. However, sales have picked up from only a $30 price cut, a new revision is on the way, this year is the best year for PSP games so far, the PSP is the most successful handheld not made by Nintendo by over a 5 to 2 ratio (25 million to 10 million Gamegears). This year (or next) it will pass the Genesis and the N64. Time will tell, but it could pass the SNES and NES, the latter at 61 million, which would put it behind only the PS, PS1, GB, GBA, and DS. Would that not be impressive? I think it would. I think it's impressive even if it's behind the SNES and NES. I think the PSP is doing great. I think if Sony just used memory sticks instead of the UMD it would be doing a lot better since it would fix load times and battery time, and it would give developers more space. Btw, UMD failed perhaps, but the memory stick is doing well. Both are Sony formats...

8) I don't think Microsoft or Sony will leave the videogame business, as much as I would like Microsoft to get out before they convince everyone to pay for online features that have been free for so long. What you are saying makes no sense, though. If they saw that Sony had a good idea with trying to own the living room and introducing all of these other devices they make and that is the reason they got into video games, then why would they give up that market just because Sony quit? I believe it would be much more likely that Microsoft gobbles up the high end side of the console market that could be split this generation, enabling them to do whatever they want without Sony interfering.

You claimed that this thread is based on opinion only, I said that's not entirely true. Sales numbers as well as profits/losses taken out of financial reports are always a fact and never an opinion.

1) So you assume that quite a lot of the people who will buy a Wii, won't buy many games for it. So far the attach ratio for the Wii is good this early into its lifecycle, considering how many games that have been released are mediocre or just plain bad. On contrary the attach ratio of the PS3 (which you assume to sell more software because the real gamers are the ones currently buying the system) is lower than the one of the Wii, that's not an opinion, it's a fact. The 360 has a high attach ratio, but it seems only games of certain genres (FPS, racing games, sports) are bought in high numbers from the current userbase. If only these games sell, only these games will be made by 3rd parties. Many people aren't interested in this kind of lineup the 360 offers, otherwise more people would be buying the 360, considering that it already has a lot of good games.

2) I am tired of discussing the current "success" of bluray. Unless a bluray version of a movie outsells the DVD version, there's no reason to believe that bluray has a chance to become the successor of the DVD.

The complaint about the PSP (maybe still is) was indeed that it merely offers PS2 ports by the general public. The Wii isn't seen as a console that gets PS2 ports by the general public, it is seen as a highly innovative console that relies on games like Wii sports that offer a new gaming experience.

3) Sure they can, but even if they do they have already lost so much money it will take some years to offset a initial losses.

5) You don't need friend codes to play against other people online, neither on the DS nor the Wii. I don't think online play on the DS or Wii is as bad as you want to believe it is. The Wii will be able to grow its number of online users faster than the Xbox line. The variety in games offered for online play are more important to most people than offered features.

I've seen you posting several times posting that you are a big fan of Mario Strikers on the GC. The Wii version has better gameplay and it supports online. Do yourself a favor and get Charged. You don't need friend codes to play against people.

6) Nintendo wanted to avoid simple ports from the HD consoles. Last generation it was easy for devs to port their games to the GC, did it help Nintendo's sales? No, 3rd parties didn't put much effort into their ports. If the Wii keeps selling at its current pace, it will become the primary platform to develop games for. The resource shifts are already happening. Once the Wii is the primary platform, the differences between the Wii and the 360/PS3 will be a handicap for the HD consoles. Simple ports between Wii and 360/PS3 aren't possible. Third parties probably will keep their games exclusive to the Wii for that reason.

7) Tell Sony that the PSP is doing great. Really, I am tired of arguing about this, the PSP is not a success. I'll let hardware and software sales for the PSP in the upcoming months speak for themselves.

8) Microsoft assumed it was a good idea to have a videogame console that could be used as convergence box, that's why they saw a threat in Sony and why they entered the videogame market. There's just one problem: everytime a company tried to do what Sony is trying to do with the PS3 (selling a console for its multimedia functions rather than for its games), they miserably failed, the 3DO, the cd-i. What Microsoft saw as threat to their main business, Windows, had never a chance to succeed in the first place. Thus, Sony's PS3 will fail in the marketplace and any other console that tries to be like the PS3 will most likely also fail.

1. I never made any assumption about PS3 attach ratio. I've merely said that a lot of the demographic that Nintendo brags about, such as old people, won't be buying as many games going forward. So far, the Wii software is selling better, so maybe I'm wrong. I just think people are overreacting before the big 2nd half of the year.

2. You are ridiculous. So until a format is passing the previous format, you will give no thought to how successful it is? It took DVDs several years to overcome VHS in sales, and it was the year after the PS2 was released.

The public I talk to realizes that the Wii's only innovation so far is the controller and that many of the games are also on PS2. I'm pretty sure a lot of people realize that. But hey, I don't have poll numbers so I could be wrong.

3. So what if it takes years to offset lossses if you do indeed offset losses. Time will tell.

5. You need codes for certain aspects of online play from what I've heard. Please point out some games that you don't. I'm pretty sure that to play with your friends you have to exchange codes for each game, including charged. I know Charged has online play without it but it's limited to 2 versus 2 and that's only if both online players also have friends at their side. The high level play is with 4 players, and I'm not sure 4 versus the computer will be an option. I hope it is. I've said before that I might get my Wii to play the game because I consider it the hardest Mario game ever made until someone disputes that claim. I haven't played them all.

I was going to get a Wii for Manhunt 2, but that seems to have been delayed for now..*sigh*

6. The 360 and PS3 get multiplatform third party games announced all the time, such as Soul Calibur 4, The Darkness, Army of Two, and an endless number of others. Devil May Cry 3, Haze (PS3 exclusive this year, heh), Assassin's Creed, etc. Lots of them. I don't think the Wii will be the primary platform for many developers, even with the shifting of resources. I think the shifts will be games like EA's Playground aimed more for younger gamers. I expect more mini-game bananzas as well. And hey, the PS3 could use a mini-game title as well, so I'm not completely dissing the Wii...

7. The PSP hasn't trailed the Wii much in Europe the last several months. The only way you can say the PSP is a failure is if you directly compare it to the GB, GBA, DS, PS, PS2, and maybe the NES and SNES (time will tell).

In fact, here is a nice chart from last week in Europe/Others:

Total:

Console	Weekly	Total
	122,831	14,085,444
	70,792	7,920,487
	61,273	2,229,330
	22,838	3,213,644
	21,883	1,023,604
Total	299,617

In fact, looking back, let me revise my claim: in the last few months the PSP has been outselling the Wii. I thought the Wii was going to win this generation? I guess that means the PSP isn't successful? Except that wouldn't make sense. Sony: the PSP is doing great.

7. Ok, we disagree.