Soriku said: DMeisterJ said: Somehow the Wii had to get brought in here. Anyhoo. It's entirely possible that with ten years it could do 150 million. They'd have to keep pace with at least 15 million for the next few years, with a couple approaching twenty. Not entirely unlikely, seeing as that Sony does believe in the whole 10 year lifespan thing (look @ the PS2). A lower price point would do wonders. Nintendo also said the GC would live 10 years. Look what happened. Personally I think Sony REALLY needs to shut up about the 10 year thing. The PS3 isn't going to last that long, sorry. The PS2 is barely selling now and it's on its 9th year. Do they really think the PS3 will have a shot then when the Wii is goign to be the #1 console and the 360 is eating up PS3 exclusives anyway? Arrogancy isn't going to get them anywhere.

thats a fair point.

After all everybody knows all companys spin.

 

I think the comparisons to the Wii and "Market Growth" and all that crap is truly miss guided. The numbers either havnt been compiled or they havnt been released, but Im pretty sure a significant portion of the Wii's install base are people that would never have bought a console if the Wii didnt exist. They arent the previous market for Consoles.

There is PLENTY of room for growth in the market as previous PS2 owners start upgrading to the current gen, be it 360 or PS3 or Wii.

@libellule - I think the 360 getting even close to 100 million units could only take place in a world where pigs fly.

I don't see 150m as possible for PS3. There are probably as many as 120 million PS2+Xbox+GC owners who reject the direction of Wii and will go Xbox 360/PS3. But Xbox 360 already has 20 million of them. It going to get potentially another 20 million. So to me, the theoretical upper limit on PS3 is about 80 million, but I have it more realistically at 65 million, as PS3 is tracking like a more expensive PSP on a worldwide basis, and since quite a few people will end up with Wii & PS3.

Thing is....by then we´d probably in the 8th generation, perhaps making it a shallow 'victory'....problem is if the userbase ever gets to 100 million +, it will have been so late that this won´t translate into PS2 like level of support.

If the PS3 last 10 years then it diffenitely has a good chance to get 150 million, but you never know by the time they discontinue the PS2 it might be at the 150 million mark and then Kaz well probably change his mind and say 160 million lol

It's ridiculous to think "Oh well when the PS2 hits $200 it'll start selling like the PS2"

1- Countless PS2 exclusives or notable titles have gone multiplat and therefore are splitting the former PS2 userbase, not everybody will upgrade to the PS3, regardless of what Sony would like to hope for. Last gen there were millions of "casuals" (before casual was a dirty word) who would only play select games like GTA and Madden. Those games are succeeding quite well on the 360 so those gamers won't have the same desire to go for a more expensive PS3.

2- By the time PS3 hits $200 (at least 2 huge pricecuts away, if not 3-4 smaller ones) the Wii will be even cheaper and the 360 should also be below or around $200. The PS3 will probably never have a sizeable price advantage. Some could argue it's a better value at similar prices but value is relative and for some the Wii/360 would be a better value if they want to play the exclusives they offer. This is where some random user could respond with a list of 30 exclusive PS3 titles which are amazing but it's meaningless if I personally don't care for any of them.

3- BR has won the war against HDDVD. And for now I do believe it is helping PS3 sales. But by the time the PS3 hits $200 BR shouldn't be a huge consideration as standalone BR players will be cheaper. Even if the PS3 is still at that point considered the "best BR player" it won't matter as the consumers who buy cheaper electronic products at $99 or less won't care. The ones willing to pay more for quality are the ones getting the PS3s now.

4- In point 1 I already mentioned why I don't think most PS2 owners will necessarily upgrade to the PS3. I also don't think the PS3 can make up the rest of the difference with new gamers. Core gamers will be split amongst the 3 consoles but the casuals and non-gamers will continue to flock to the Wii. The PS3 has already built up a reputation as a high-powered, high-price, deluxe gaming console for core gamers. Which is great for us but for nongamers the DS3 gamepad is more intimidating than the Wiimote and the Wii will continue to be the console of choice even when all consoles are cheaper.

5- It's very likely that HD adoption rate will be far greater when the PS3 hits $200 but that won't trample the Wii's success. Engadget had an article a few months back that 65% of Wiis were connected to HDTVs already and yet the Wii is still selling fine. Just like some like to say "This game looks so amazing. It can't be done on the 360" there are many games with unique enough controls that can't be properly duplicated on the PS3/360 so their experience can only be achieved on the Wii and people won't abandon the Wii once they suddenly get an HDTV. People who bought a Wii for Wii Sports won't want to get a PS3 to play Resistance.

@DmeisterJ

Why do some Sony fans get so defensive and upset when the Wii is brought up? It's very logical and reasonable for the Wii/360 to be brought up in discussions like this. The PS3 doesn't exist in a vacuum. The Wii and 360 directly compete for sales and consumers pick between them. Some will pick multiple consoles but many won't so it's only fair to discuss what impact the competitors' consoles would have while discussing the PS3s chances of hitting 150 million. I for one think it's a forgone conclusion that the PS3 could hit 120 million if the Wii/360 didn't exist but with both of them in the race I don't personally see the PS3 hitting 100 million.

I doubt the Wii might make PS2 levels unless Nintendo increases its life-span.

The reason the PS2 is still selling is because of the needlessness of the PS3.

Latin America is a huge market but again, your not going to sell 5 million PS2s in 6 months. Even if its 500 million, 700 million, 1 billion or whatever number of people, you have maybe 50 million who are wealthy enough and educated enough to want a videogame console, and they aren't going to buy 5 million consoles in six months. Just look at the USA or Japan - two areas in love with videogames - and with a wide net of wealthy enough people - and they rarely ever buy 5 million consoles in six months.

TheSource said: Latin America is a huge market but again, your not going to sell 5 million PS2s in 6 months. Even if its 500 million, 700 million, 1 billion or whatever number of people, you have maybe 50 million who are wealthy enough and educated enough to want a videogame console, and they aren't going to buy 5 million consoles in six months. Just look at the USA or Japan - two areas in love with videogames - and with a wide net of wealthy enough people - and they rarely ever buy 5 million consoles in six months.

 

 The population of South America is 371,000,000

Soriku said: DMeisterJ said: Somehow the Wii had to get brought in here. Anyhoo. It's entirely possible that with ten years it could do 150 million. They'd have to keep pace with at least 15 million for the next few years, with a couple approaching twenty. Not entirely unlikely, seeing as that Sony does believe in the whole 10 year lifespan thing (look @ the PS2). A lower price point would do wonders. Nintendo also said the GC would live 10 years. Look what happened. Personally I think Sony REALLY needs to shut up about the 10 year thing. The PS3 isn't going to last that long, sorry. The PS2 is barely selling now and it's on its 9th year. Do they really think the PS3 will have a shot then when the Wii is goign to be the #1 console and the 360 is eating up PS3 exclusives anyway? Arrogancy isn't going to get them anywhere.

The PS1 sold for ten years.

The PS2 is in it's eight year, and still doing extremely well, (almost beat the 360 Ww this week), and the PS3 will do the same.  I don't see how that's hard to believe.