It's ridiculous to think "Oh well when the PS2 hits $200 it'll start selling like the PS2"
1- Countless PS2 exclusives or notable titles have gone multiplat and therefore are splitting the former PS2 userbase, not everybody will upgrade to the PS3, regardless of what Sony would like to hope for. Last gen there were millions of "casuals" (before casual was a dirty word) who would only play select games like GTA and Madden. Those games are succeeding quite well on the 360 so those gamers won't have the same desire to go for a more expensive PS3.
2- By the time PS3 hits $200 (at least 2 huge pricecuts away, if not 3-4 smaller ones) the Wii will be even cheaper and the 360 should also be below or around $200. The PS3 will probably never have a sizeable price advantage. Some could argue it's a better value at similar prices but value is relative and for some the Wii/360 would be a better value if they want to play the exclusives they offer. This is where some random user could respond with a list of 30 exclusive PS3 titles which are amazing but it's meaningless if I personally don't care for any of them.
3- BR has won the war against HDDVD. And for now I do believe it is helping PS3 sales. But by the time the PS3 hits $200 BR shouldn't be a huge consideration as standalone BR players will be cheaper. Even if the PS3 is still at that point considered the "best BR player" it won't matter as the consumers who buy cheaper electronic products at $99 or less won't care. The ones willing to pay more for quality are the ones getting the PS3s now.
4- In point 1 I already mentioned why I don't think most PS2 owners will necessarily upgrade to the PS3. I also don't think the PS3 can make up the rest of the difference with new gamers. Core gamers will be split amongst the 3 consoles but the casuals and non-gamers will continue to flock to the Wii. The PS3 has already built up a reputation as a high-powered, high-price, deluxe gaming console for core gamers. Which is great for us but for nongamers the DS3 gamepad is more intimidating than the Wiimote and the Wii will continue to be the console of choice even when all consoles are cheaper.
5- It's very likely that HD adoption rate will be far greater when the PS3 hits $200 but that won't trample the Wii's success. Engadget had an article a few months back that 65% of Wiis were connected to HDTVs already and yet the Wii is still selling fine. Just like some like to say "This game looks so amazing. It can't be done on the 360" there are many games with unique enough controls that can't be properly duplicated on the PS3/360 so their experience can only be achieved on the Wii and people won't abandon the Wii once they suddenly get an HDTV. People who bought a Wii for Wii Sports won't want to get a PS3 to play Resistance.
@DmeisterJ
Why do some Sony fans get so defensive and upset when the Wii is brought up? It's very logical and reasonable for the Wii/360 to be brought up in discussions like this. The PS3 doesn't exist in a vacuum. The Wii and 360 directly compete for sales and consumers pick between them. Some will pick multiple consoles but many won't so it's only fair to discuss what impact the competitors' consoles would have while discussing the PS3s chances of hitting 150 million. I for one think it's a forgone conclusion that the PS3 could hit 120 million if the Wii/360 didn't exist but with both of them in the race I don't personally see the PS3 hitting 100 million.
