DMeisterJ said:
The thing is that no one can predict the future. Price drops, maybe Sony will get agressive with the Third-Party exclusives, maybe MS will bow out of the console race, who knows?! It's so far off into the future. All we can do is go on track record, which is that Sony supports it's consoles for ten years, and they will likely do the same for this. Even if they only do release multi-plat games on it, it will be around for the full ten years, and at a lower price point, it's entirely possible.
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This is the problem with looking at it through fanboy goggles. You're only fooling yourself if you actually think you're judging past trends accurately.
It's not fair to say PS sold over 100 million and PS2 sold over 120 million so "going on track record" PS3 will sell over 140 million.
You have to look for the reasons behind the trends. If we were to keep on going simply by brand name loyalty then the N64 would have continued to dominate and the PS brand would never have gotten off the ground. PS and PS2 succeeded for several reasons including high profile exclusives and even more importantly wide demographics that could appeal to a broad audience.
Yes Sony has in the past supported its consoles for 10 years. But both of those consoles were overwhelming popular and dominant. They had enough legs in them to sell 10 years after launch to more casual gamers who wouldn't pick it up at a higher price. The Wii has monopolized the casual market. Mainstream gamers aren't going to sit around waiting for the PS3 to drop to a lower price when the Wii is already at $250.