If published and advertised properly, it could be 5 Million seller.
Nintendo should have published this title.

@sc94597 form posts and a few previews do not count as publicity.
we should be seeing some viral campaign's, web advertising, TV-Ads, Magazine Ads etc ...

I know of course, but he said only people on this site are hyped for the game.

120k first week. Then steep drop.........400k lifetime.

tough one this - online voice chat after animal crossing is released so Wii chat will already be in a lot of peoples homes, really well made FPS - a genre thats seriously missing from the Wii's games and getting released in a normally slow quarter in terms of games getting released.

I'm disapointed Nintendo didn't give this a showing in their E3 display yet they showed 2 ubisoft games - go figure, would have been great to have a shaun whytes snowboarding type display with online and Wii Chat working for this.

I reckon about 120k and quiet first week sales but may have great legs.

i think the game will pass 1million

Conduit threads are way longer than Zack and Wiki threads were.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=9502 (1page)
http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=16735 (1 page)
http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=9129 (three pages, longest I could find)

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=32663 (4 pages)
http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=29579 (3 pages)
http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=25784 (2)

This one is only one page but there talking about leaked manual scans...

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=30240


I'm not saying it will sell more, just that it is more hyped.

I totally agree, but the buyer usually won't know if he's buying a FPA or FPS. The people they listen to are likely to have reviewed MP3 better.

And people, you seriously see this game selling more first week than Super Mario Galaxy? And some see it selling as much as Super Smash Bros. Brawl - the best opening game ever on a Nintendo platform?

Face it - The Conduit isn't Gears of War. GeoW might be a new IP, but it was released at a moment in which there was very little quality on the 360. The Conduit doesn't have that by any means.

I see it doing 150-200k the first week (NA), if it is actually good then it will climb to 1mil.  There are a lot of things keeping it from reaching Gears levels.

1. Not first party.

2. Depending on the publishing deal there won't be tons of advertising, like there was for gears.

3. Online community is not as established on Wii.  There are no achievements, gamer-profiles, ways to make friends while playing, etc.

4. Even if there is a ton of advertising the game doesn't look like gears of war. (Even though the gears commercials weren't gameplay any way.)

If it does get a big boost in ads from the publisher, than my prediction for first week my creep up to 3-400k.

I'll add just one point here.

FPS do appeal to casuals as well. Look at Halo games or UT on PC. But the mass market won't buy 2-6 FPS a year. They'll buy one or two really good ones per console. That's all they need.

FPS that become the 'to own' FPS see those mass market legs. Look at Halo and CoD4. Then compare that to a typical shooter where they have great sales for the first week then drop off - quick.

I wouldn't say shooters underperform on Wii. There just hasn't been any of note. Red Steel sold great for what it was. MoH:H2 had great controls and online but failed to grip anyone's imagination and I couldn't play online because everyone walks around like they have a broken hip and it would really have benefited from voice chat. Irregardless it sold comparitively well compared to other MoH titles sold that year (they all bombed).

HVS has the right idea. Make this the defining FPS. Many Wii owners, both core and casual would love to have one FPS in their game library. As it stands today Conduit is head and shoulders above every other FPS on Wii - even CoD5 (as much as we've seen of it so far).

I don't expect great first week sales (good not great through) but I can see this becoming the next RE4 and selling a steady 10-15k week after week.

Only problem is if something better comes along - TimeSplitters 4 or Red Steel 2 probably being the biggest possible threats. I doubt CoD5 will have huge traction since it's WWII again and the world is pretty tired of WWII on all systems. And multi-console owners would get a HD version. Conduit is exclusive and multi-console owners will still get it. I'm sure they'd love one AAA FPS for their Wiis.

The Conduit really only has one big negative IMO - No split-screen. I'd get a FPS with split-screen over one without, even if it means scarificing graphics and I thnk that'd go for a lot of casuals who'd like to play with their friends/family. Still, it currently has no competition.