The Conduit sales prediction

[steven787]

Oyvoyvoyv said:

BengaBenga said:

Oyvoyvoyv said:
I predict lifetime sales to fall short of 500K copies.

I mean, what most people will look at this as, is Metroid Prime, without Samus, not made by Nintendo.

 

Call me a sissie, but after Metroid Prime I didn't really want to play that series again. I mean it was great, but a little too hardcore for my taste. I mean at a sudden moment I spend a full hour just backtracking. The game is just too friggin hard.

A FPS like the Conduit has a much bigger potential audience, because it's easier.

 

 

I totally agree, but the buyer usually won't know if he's buying a FPA or FPS. The people they listen to are likely to have reviewed MP3 better.

 

And people, you seriously see this game selling more first week than Super Mario Galaxy? And some see it selling as much as Super Smash Bros. Brawl - the best opening game ever on a Nintendo platform?

Face it - The Conduit isn't Gears of War. GeoW might be a new IP, but it was released at a moment in which there was very little quality on the 360. The Conduit doesn't have that by any means.

 

 

I see it doing 150-200k the first week (NA), if it is actually good then it will climb to 1mil.  There are a lot of things keeping it from reaching Gears levels.

1. Not first party.

2. Depending on the publishing deal there won't be tons of advertising, like there was for gears.

3. Online community is not as established on Wii.  There are no achievements, gamer-profiles, ways to make friends while playing, etc.

4. Even if there is a ton of advertising the game doesn't look like gears of war. (Even though the gears commercials weren't gameplay any way.)

 

If it does get a big boost in ads from the publisher, than my prediction for first week my creep up to 3-400k.