The Conduit sales prediction

[Gamerace]

I'll add just one point here.

FPS do appeal to casuals as well. Look at Halo games or UT on PC. But the mass market won't buy 2-6 FPS a year. They'll buy one or two really good ones per console. That's all they need.

FPS that become the 'to own' FPS see those mass market legs. Look at Halo and CoD4. Then compare that to a typical shooter where they have great sales for the first week then drop off - quick.

I wouldn't say shooters underperform on Wii. There just hasn't been any of note. Red Steel sold great for what it was. MoH:H2 had great controls and online but failed to grip anyone's imagination and I couldn't play online because everyone walks around like they have a broken hip and it would really have benefited from voice chat. Irregardless it sold comparitively well compared to other MoH titles sold that year (they all bombed).

HVS has the right idea. Make this the defining FPS. Many Wii owners, both core and casual would love to have one FPS in their game library. As it stands today Conduit is head and shoulders above every other FPS on Wii - even CoD5 (as much as we've seen of it so far).

I don't expect great first week sales (good not great through) but I can see this becoming the next RE4 and selling a steady 10-15k week after week.

Only problem is if something better comes along - TimeSplitters 4 or Red Steel 2 probably being the biggest possible threats. I doubt CoD5 will have huge traction since it's WWII again and the world is pretty tired of WWII on all systems. And multi-console owners would get a HD version. Conduit is exclusive and multi-console owners will still get it. I'm sure they'd love one AAA FPS for their Wiis.

The Conduit really only has one big negative IMO - No split-screen. I'd get a FPS with split-screen over one without, even if it means scarificing graphics and I thnk that'd go for a lot of casuals who'd like to play with their friends/family. Still, it currently has no competition.