I Think the wii will hit it somewhere in September

and the 360 will have 10.8m

Ps3 4.6m

As long as NIntendo can keep shipments at high and increase them when big games come out then Wii will hit it first. Especially with Strikers and MP3 releasing in America before September, Super Paper Mario in Europe, and of course Dragon Quest Swords in Japan. All big titles that should boost sales.

I'd say around the end of August Wii will get around 11 million if all those big games are able to have sales increases.

But it's really going to be up to NIntendo as well. If they can keep shipments constantly flowing and increase with big names.

yea it looks like the Wii, but if Wii can't get 11 million by the day Halo comes out, 360 will hit it first. Anyway, even if Wii passes 360 in august/september, when Halo comes out 360 will pass Wii probably until December.

I think 360 already did sell 11 mil. I love the work being done here, but until your formulas aren't drastically changed based on every major release of sales info, its very hard to take them seriously (you have a "Beta" tag on the sight for a reason, right? ;). I think what you do have right, and is more interesting anyway, are the trends of sales. Keep up the good work.

I wonder... I know Halo will have a very positive effect on the 360's hardware sales, but enough to offset the fact that the Wii is selling well in all 3 regions, versus 1 for the 360?

As it is, according to ioi there's less than a million difference in the install base in Europe between the 360 and Wii.

I have little doubt that the 360 will outsell the Wii that month in North America, Europe is iffy, but Japan's numbers should offset most if not all of the differences of the other region(s).

The Xbox 360 probably isn't going to go over 11M before either the price drops, or Halo 3 is released. Looks like the Wii is hitting the amount very close to the Halo 3 date, so I'm guessing it'll be there first. First to 12M at the very least.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the Wii takes the lead momentarily, but then goes back to second place after its main competitor gets a boost.

remember the price
its 250....
come on.. i buy that in amazon one weekend..
that is why the wii will win.

the ps3 it will have "that" price cut, and here in 3 years it could be in 300 dllrs the ps3.

ok... who ever said 200,000 a month is just flat wrong... even looking at the worst that the 360 sells thats too low...

lets assume 155,000/month in america (although thats the lowest its sold so far) and 22,000/ week in "other" which is roughly 88,000/month... then a meager 2500 / week in japan which is roughtly 10,000/month... add that together and you get 253,000 / month which is 25% more than 200,000 and that's the lowest that the 360 has yet to sell this year.

I'm still under the belief that the NPD tracked only sales of Premiums and Cores because with the release of the Elite there is no way that the sales of the 360 went down (check itrackr to see that elite is indemand) If they shipped 50,000 elites in may then that would put the 360's numbers back at 200,000/month which is where it had been averaging... but who knows, no tracking site ever reveals all their sources or how they actually calculate the data, so we will never know.

June might show a small boost because of Forza and July should show a boost due to E3. August will most likely boost 360 sales because of Blue Dragon, Eternal Sonata, bioshock, and (hopefully) mass effect... but the real boost will come with a price drop and halo 3...

Could be a price drop at E3 (which would solidify the 360 getting to 11 million first) but if that doesn't happen til october then the wii could possibly reach 11 million first.

The wii is selling ~1 million per month and the 360 is selling ~300k... without a price cut the wii might edge out the 360 by september... but I think August will tell us the most. If the wii keeps its legs through then it will get there, but if the 360 gets a price cut at E3 then it will pull ahead... And I wouldn't put it past Microsoft to put a price cut out well before halo 3... that way the userbase can grow in anticipation and thus help the first party titles coming in August and boost halo 3 holiday sales.

Just to follow up on my elite theory...

It is sold out still at Amazon, best buy, and Circuit City

 http://www.circuitcity.com/ssm/Microsoft-Xbox-360-Elite-High-Definition-Gaming-and-Entertainment-System-882224390118/sem/rpsm/oid/177538/catOid/-16483/rpem/ccd/productDetail.do

http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?skuId=8301492&st=xbox+360+elite&type=product&id=1172881999620

http://www.amazon.com/360-Elite-System-Console-120GB/dp/B000OYMSL6/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/104-3640980-5454339?ie=UTF8&s=videogames&qid=1182547448&sr=1-1

edit: as of 4:30 EDT 6/22/07

I don't care what anyone says, if ps3 gets a price drop of $100 dollars or more its going to be much more than just like 4million when the wii reaches 11m