360 or Wii: Who reaches 11M worldwide first?

[eques judicii]

ok... who ever said 200,000 a month is just flat wrong... even looking at the worst that the 360 sells thats too low...

lets assume 155,000/month in america (although thats the lowest its sold so far) and 22,000/ week in "other" which is roughly 88,000/month... then a meager 2500 / week in japan which is roughtly 10,000/month... add that together and you get 253,000 / month which is 25% more than 200,000 and that's the lowest that the 360 has yet to sell this year.

I'm still under the belief that the NPD tracked only sales of Premiums and Cores because with the release of the Elite there is no way that the sales of the 360 went down (check itrackr to see that elite is indemand) If they shipped 50,000 elites in may then that would put the 360's numbers back at 200,000/month which is where it had been averaging... but who knows, no tracking site ever reveals all their sources or how they actually calculate the data, so we will never know.

June might show a small boost because of Forza and July should show a boost due to E3. August will most likely boost 360 sales because of Blue Dragon, Eternal Sonata, bioshock, and (hopefully) mass effect... but the real boost will come with a price drop and halo 3...

Could be a price drop at E3 (which would solidify the 360 getting to 11 million first) but if that doesn't happen til october then the wii could possibly reach 11 million first.

The wii is selling ~1 million per month and the 360 is selling ~300k... without a price cut the wii might edge out the 360 by september... but I think August will tell us the most. If the wii keeps its legs through then it will get there, but if the 360 gets a price cut at E3 then it will pull ahead... And I wouldn't put it past Microsoft to put a price cut out well before halo 3... that way the userbase can grow in anticipation and thus help the first party titles coming in August and boost halo 3 holiday sales.