25 or 40 years? We are talking in the world 6.5+- billion people. If a console sell 150 million this time a round, that would mean you would need 6.6 atach rate (1bil/150mil=6.6bar). I think a console can easily sell more than PS2 this gen as India, China, Russia, Pakistan, Moderate Arab States, Eastern Europe, Moderate African States, Mexico, Brazil, and the rest of the world's economies grow.

The population of the gaming market last gen was about 1.5 billion people (Mostly US, Can, Eur, Jap), this gen 80%* of the worlds population will start seeing growth in their standard of living. While I don't think that a Wii or a PS3 will be available to every Chinese National, there is a distinctive middle class growing in China.

On top of the growth in the available market, there is also growth in the market as games are being marketed to the busy lifestyles of western and Japanese gamers. (tapping into the potential of the available market)

(I figured 80% (1.5bil+1.1bil(ind)+1.3(china)+1.2bil(l.a.)/6.6bil)=77%

On the subject of China's Middle class

Large Middle Class
http://english.people.com.cn/200509/03/eng20050903_206346.html


Only 100,000,000?
http://www.chinaeconomicreview.com/editors/2007/02/14/market-myths/

290 million people by 2011 & 520 million by 2025
http://www.chinalawblog.com/chinalawblog/2006/05/url_for_dont_ig.html

Sony's PS2 sells well in China but no numbers given.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/007447ec-329d-11db-87ac-0000779e2340.html

Based on these figures we could possibly see UK like wii sales in China by 2010 and US type sales by 2025 (for the best selling console) , taking into account that the Wii would sell quite a bit cheaper then in the west and it is made there, also by 2010 we can assume a price cut for the wii.

I also predict that by 2015 - 2020 they will have there own development houses in china, i can see lots of tie-in games for chinese films ;)

This leads me to believe that yes, china will have a real impact on sales in the long term future and maybe up to a 10% WW increase in sales by 2011.

PS2 has already done it. Does anybody really believe that 1.24 billion pieces of software have been shipped through March, but that 1 billion haven't been sold-through to customers? And if you actually believe that, do you further believe that the billion mark won't be reached in the next 18 months through large ongoing shipments and massive retailler discounts to clear stock?

There's no reason Wii can't repeat the feat. They could get over 5% of the way there just from Wii Sports and Wii Play.

As a ballpark, very rough estimate consider: 

Since the NES days, Nintendo alone has averaged about 80 million pieces of software sold per year, yet their revenue last year was something like 1/4 of the industry total...

If we pretend for a minute that all of that money came from software that makes me think 320 million+ units of software are sold every year as a very, very low minimum..although it is more like 5 million hardcore gamers buying 50 games each year, and and 35 million other people buying 2 games each year on average, vs. 40 million people buying 8 games.

I would think it takes a dominant console 5 years to push 1 billion pieces of software these days.

well, for china, first they'll need to solve the piracy issue. which they won't for at least another 10 years. ditto for india. so... software-wise, non-factors. hardware, yeah, they'll be big, UK levels in a few years sound reasonable.

It's hard to say.  More and more Hardcore gamers are buying pre-paid and bargin bin consignment games these days, which are almost impossible to count.

However an increasing number of kids are getting video games now for valentines day and easter which sway numbers in the opposite direction.

If a console sold 50 million units it would need an attach rate of 20:1, provided that all of the purchased consoles were in working order and all the copies purchased were bought factory sealed.

If anybody has pushed a billion units on a game system, my money would be on the origional game boy

 problem is china is the capital of the world for piracy, and they dont seems to interested in fighting it all that much.

"With its slogan “Disneyland is too far,” Beijing’s Shijingshan Amusement Park features a replica of Cinderella’s Castle, with staff dressed like Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs and other Disney characters.

None of this is authorized by Disney - but that has not stopped the state-owned park from creating its own counterfeit version of the Magic Kingdom in a brazen example of the sort of open and widespread copyright piracy that has Washington fuming.

The United States announced Monday it would file a case at the World Trade Organization over rampant copyright piracy in China, a practice which US companies say deprives them of billions of dollars each year.

But 31-year-old housewife Zhang Li betrays a typical Chinese attitude on the issue while chasing her young son around the park.

“I don’t understand why that is such a big problem. Shouldn’t others be able to use those characters besides [Disney]?” she asks."

ohh sweet lord LOL

that link is freaking great!