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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official June NPD Thread (for the 5 weeks ending 7/5, data in ~6 hours)

BKK2 on 18 July 2008

I wouldn't expect many sales from Mexico, official consoles are very expensive due to import duties. For example, 40Gb PS3 is $700 from Sony Style Mexico compared to $400 across the border. Wii costs $440 compared to $250 in US. Most people will either buy from US directly, or buy ilegally imported consoles with no import duty. The vast majority of Mexican console sales should already be tracked in US.



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Oyvoyvoyv on 18 July 2008
BKK2 said:

I wouldn't expect many sales from Mexico, official consoles are very expensive due to import duties. For example, 40Gb PS3 is $700 from Sony Style Mexico compared to $400 across the border. Wii costs $440 compared to $250 in US. Most people will either buy from US directly, or buy ilegally imported consoles with no import duty. The vast majority of Mexican console sales should already be tracked in US.

 

 Still, with 16M making as much as US average, 300-400K Wii sales wouldn't be impossible, would it?

 



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

BKK2 on 18 July 2008
Oyvoyvoyv said:
BKK2 said:

I wouldn't expect many sales from Mexico, official consoles are very expensive due to import duties. For example, 40Gb PS3 is $700 from Sony Style Mexico compared to $400 across the border. Wii costs $440 compared to $250 in US. Most people will either buy from US directly, or buy ilegally imported consoles with no import duty. The vast majority of Mexican console sales should already be tracked in US.

 

 Still, with 16M making as much as US average, 300-400K Wii sales wouldn't be impossible, would it?

 

Sure, but  my point was the majority of those 300k-400k sales will be US imports and thus already tracked in US.

I'm not really following your argument closely, but are you aware that "America" on VGC also includes South America?



Oyvoyvoyv on 18 July 2008
BKK2 said:
Oyvoyvoyv said:
BKK2 said:

I wouldn't expect many sales from Mexico, official consoles are very expensive due to import duties. For example, 40Gb PS3 is $700 from Sony Style Mexico compared to $400 across the border. Wii costs $440 compared to $250 in US. Most people will either buy from US directly, or buy ilegally imported consoles with no import duty. The vast majority of Mexican console sales should already be tracked in US.

 

 Still, with 16M making as much as US average, 300-400K Wii sales wouldn't be impossible, would it?

 

Sure, but  my point was the majority of those 300k-400k sales will be US imports and thus already tracked in US.

I'm not really following your argument closely, but are you aware that "America" on VGC also includes South America?

I didn't really know whether it was in or not. Most people say NA, so I assumed it wasn't. I believe this only strengthens my argument though.

 



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

BKK2 on 18 July 2008

It should really be called "Americas" to avoid confusion.



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Squilliam on 18 July 2008
Euphoria14 said:
Squilliam said:
I think it was MGS4 + $100 gift card at Walmart that did it! - Remember Vgchartz doesn't track walmart.

http://www.joystiq.com/2008/06/11/wal-mart-corporate-confirms-100-ps3-gift-card-yes-even-mgs/

Theres the scoop. So I think that explains both the discrepency and the huge sales the PS3 got.

$499 80GB PS3 with $60 MGS4 and $100 Gift card = $160 discount for some people. Or they could have gotten a 40gb PS3 no MGS4 for $399 with said $100 gift card and bought a PS3 for less than a Pro Xbox360 if you add it all up. *Xtra controllers/games etc*

So based on that I would predict that theres not yet any indication of a trend for a huge increase in PS3 sales rates.

 

I am pretty sure NPD does not track Walmart either.

 

Edit - NVM, I just read that supposedly they started sometime in the middle of last year.

 

Even so, 1 week is responsible for equating to double sales?

Discount + MGS4 bundle discount + limited 80gb release = sales.

Since Big games don't influence sales trends greatly, the 80gb isn't coming back afaik (Replaced) and there isn't a discount this month then July will probably be very average.

But to answer the bolded: Yes - People can get a 80gb MGS4 pack for $499 with a $100 gift voucher... (Up to $160 if you like MGS4 off) And since its limited of course people will jump - hard onto it.

 



Tease.

Jhriad on 18 July 2008
Oyvoyvoyv said:
Godot said:
Oyvoyvoyv said:

CrazzyMan, you know that we estimate that by subtracting out Canada. I've already proven that Mexico and the rest of NA should favour Wii, making the real difference very small.

"OR it`s ok to SCALE American MONTHLY data, BUT NOT ok, to scale LTD???"

Not really, because the monthly numbers are fairly unprecise (5-10% off is possible), while the LTD is very accurate. This means that doing it LTD messes up the accuracy, while the monthly is already so inaccurate it doesn't make a lot of difference.

North America is not USA + Canada, in fact, they present less than 2/3 of th total population in North America.

Mexico has about 103 million people while USA 300 + Canada 30 gives us 76% of NA. Besides, Mexico is really poor compared to USA and Canada so they don't buy nearly as much video games than USA and Canada.

added that because he seems to believe so again and again.

Also, Mexico isn't the only other country, so 76% is totally wrong. The total is 523M, including all the countries in NA.

Another thing, the top 15% make up for the top 60% of the total income in Mexico. That means they average 30.000 dollars/year. Considering the far lower prices there, that does in reality equal the average in America. Meaning that those 16.5M are just as likely as Americans, if not more than as likely, to buy consoles.

Also, in poorer countries, people are more likely to buy the cheapest console if they buy one.

 

Just wanted to go ahead and correct the NA population percentages that are being thrown around.

Canada+U.S.+Mexico = 84.6% of the popluation of NA  or 443,230,979 people in those three countries alone according to Wikipedia.

Also don't expect South America to skew the numbers despite the large population (primarily in Brazil) as pirated consoles/games are the norm down there not to mention consoles that ARE available officially cost double or more what they cost in the U.S.  I seem to remember an article on Kotaku a while back about how the 360 was going to cost over $1000 in Brazil at launch.  Found it.  Note that in the article it says "importers will bring a 360 to you for close to half that price" which means those sales are likely to show up on.. you guessed it!.. the U.S. market!

 



Oyvoyvoyv on 18 July 2008
Jhriad said:
Oyvoyvoyv said:
Godot said:
Oyvoyvoyv said:

CrazzyMan, you know that we estimate that by subtracting out Canada. I've already proven that Mexico and the rest of NA should favour Wii, making the real difference very small.

"OR it`s ok to SCALE American MONTHLY data, BUT NOT ok, to scale LTD???"

Not really, because the monthly numbers are fairly unprecise (5-10% off is possible), while the LTD is very accurate. This means that doing it LTD messes up the accuracy, while the monthly is already so inaccurate it doesn't make a lot of difference.

North America is not USA + Canada, in fact, they present less than 2/3 of th total population in North America.

Mexico has about 103 million people while USA 300 + Canada 30 gives us 76% of NA. Besides, Mexico is really poor compared to USA and Canada so they don't buy nearly as much video games than USA and Canada.

added that because he seems to believe so again and again.

Also, Mexico isn't the only other country, so 76% is totally wrong. The total is 523M, including all the countries in NA.

Another thing, the top 15% make up for the top 60% of the total income in Mexico. That means they average 30.000 dollars/year. Considering the far lower prices there, that does in reality equal the average in America. Meaning that those 16.5M are just as likely as Americans, if not more than as likely, to buy consoles.

Also, in poorer countries, people are more likely to buy the cheapest console if they buy one.

 

Just wanted to go ahead and correct the NA population percentages that are being thrown around.

Canada+U.S.+Mexico = 84.6% of the popluation of NA  or 443,230,979 people in those three countries alone according to Wikipedia.

Also don't expect South America to skew the numbers despite the large population (primarily in Brazil) as pirated consoles/games are the norm down there not to mention consoles that ARE available officially cost double or more what they cost in the U.S.  I seem to remember an article on Kotaku a while back about how the 360 was going to cost over $1000 in Brazil at launch.  Found it.  Note that in the article it says "importers will bring a 360 to you for close to half that price" which means those sales are likely to show up on.. you guessed it!.. the U.S. market!

 

 

 That's what I said. Well basically. Canada + US = roughly 340M = roughly 64% of the total population of NA. If you include Mexico, that makes about 85%.

And yes, SA isn't likely to make much of a difference, so I didn't include it in the comparison.



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

Diomedes1976 on 18 July 2008

95% of Mexico and SA sales are US imports.Thats the way things are,its a lot cheaper to buy a US import that the official release.Even the people that can buy it know that.

I have been saying this problem a lot of time ago.It just doesnt add that the PS3 is under NPD numbers and the Wii and 360 are way ahead NPD.

And we have seen now that something is wrong ....Nintendo claimed 26 million shipped some 2 weeks ago and MS has just claimed 20.2 million shipped ....so no way they have 19.78 sold to retail.



FishyJoe on 18 July 2008
Diomedes1976 said:
95% of Mexico and SA sales are US imports.Thats the way things are,its a lot cheaper to buy a US import that the official release.Even the people that can buy it know that.

I have been saying this problem a lot of time ago.It just doesnt add that the PS3 is under NPD numbers and the Wii and 360 are way ahead NPD.

And we have seen now that something is wrong ....Nintendo claimed 26 million shipped some 2 weeks ago and MS has just claimed 20.2 million shipped ....so no way they have 19.78 sold to retail.

 

Seriously, why the f*ck do you just make statistics up and completely distort the truth. The Wii was at 24.45 million on March 31, 2008, do you honestly thing they only shipped 1.5 million units in two months around the world??? If so then you need your head examined.

And you don't have any clue how many are sold in Central in South America. However Nintendo conveniently provides the data for all of Americas so if you subtract NPD numbers from US and Canada, you'd realize the number is significant.