By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official June NPD Thread (for the 5 weeks ending 7/5, data in ~6 hours)

Nutboy on 18 July 2008
CrazzyMan said:
Thus a totally fair prediction for NA totals would be

12.7-13M for Wii

11.9 - 12.2M for X360

5.5M - 5.7M Ps3


Now, the actual VGC numbers, excluding the last week of hardware, as it is not included in NPD:

Wii: 12.7M

X360: 11.9M

Ps3: 5.3M
THAT`s the POINT, PS3 behind by 200k, while x360 and Wii match the lowest "a totally fair prediction for NA totals would be".

And i ask, WHY?

 

 HOLY SHIT! Look at that! Crazzy changed the numbers in the quote!

 You couldn't prove him wrong so you cheated. That's a new low, even for you.



Around the Network
shanbcn on 18 July 2008
Oyvoyvoyv said:
CrazzyMan said:
Oyvoyvoyv said:
Griffin said:
Oyvoyvoyv said:
Griffin said:
Oyvoyvoyv said:
Griffin said:
superchunk said:
Griffin said:
FishyJoe said:

According to Bloomberg, over 10.9 million Wiis LTD in US. If you add in Canada and the rest of the Americas, VGC almost sounds like it's tracking on the low side comparatively. I've underlined comparatively because I'm not saying VGC is under tracking, only that it may be tracking differently on the low side when you compare.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aK64sYWSB1Rw&refer=asia

 

How do you get that, according to this site we have the wii at 12.55mil for the last week in june, with the US at 10.9 that puts 1.6 for Canada, and thats well above 10%. If anything it appears we are over tracking.

ummm, your forgeting about all those little countries below the US.

10.9 + 1.1 = 12m

Then about 500k for the rest of NA. Sure, that's reasonable.

 

You are out of your mind if you think there are 500k sales of the wii for central and south America, and does Nintendo even ship wii's to South America, i think the suppliers buy them from the US and ship them down south.

 

You are aware that south America isn't a part of North America, right?

As for the numbers, look at this.

NA population: 523M

US population: 304M

Canada population: 33M

Rest population: 186M

Are you telling me that the rest 186M people, couldn't have bought 500.000 Wiis, when a less than 1/5 population bought more than twice as much?

 

You do know how little people make on average in South America, Brazil, 2006 average is $4600, the US is $42,000+. Mexico is about $7500, the rest of SA is even lower.

 
I think you're joking, but I'm not sure. North America is what VGC has America as. I used North America. Brasil alone has a population of 188M (I think), so how the heck could I have included SA? If I'm wrong, and VGC tracks all of America, what I wrote is still valid, as I used NA only. Once again, South America is a continent, and not a part of North America.

 

South America(SA)/Central Amerca is poor, they have not bought 500k wii's. The numbers i provided are correct for the average income. I know what VGC tracks. I'm saying we have over tracked if we go by NPD numbers.

 

And I'm saying it's not. I also believe you do not know what VGC tracks. I myself don't really know, but everyone says NA, and I assume the majority is correct here.

The numbers you provided for average income mean next to nothing. Mexico is 7500 dollars. But there is a huge class difference there. The top 15% stand for 60% of the total income. This means that those 16.5M in Mexico (not including the 70M not in Canada, USA and Mexico) have an average income of 30.000 USD a year. Considering the far lower prices there, this equals to about the same as a US citizen. I believe this is higher than Canada, but I'm not certain. The Brazil average means nothing, as it is in Others, not NA.

So solely by population, those 15% should equal out more than half of Canada, making 500K a safe bet. And this isn't even including the 70M out of the big 3 in NA.

EDIT: Sorry, that's supposed to be 30-40M out of the big 3. Sorry!

 

I just really don`t know, so i just want some ANSWERS. =)

LTD NPD Canada through Jan/08:
360 - 736,400
WII - 689,500
PS3 - 342,400

LTD NPD Canada through Mar/08:
WII - 813,000

Usa NPD Feb:
Xbox 360 255K
PLAYSTATION 3 281K
Wii 432K units

Usa NPD March:
Xbox 360 262K
PLAYSTATION 3 257K
Wii 721K

The Wii in Canada is at 813,000 LTD as of March or +124,000 in Feb+March = 10,5%(of USA Feb+March sales).

Then in 2 month(Feb+March) in Canada by the end of March:
x360 = +54k = 790k
ps3 = +58k = 400k
wii = 813k

Usa NPD March LTD:

360: 9.868
Wii: 8.797
PS3: 4.054

Total NA by March 30.
x360 - NPD 10,660 - VG 11,110 - 450k
Wii - NPD 9,610 - VG 10,195 - 600k
ps3 - NPD 4,453 - VG 4,448 - -5k

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii®1=America&cons2=PS3®2=America&cons3=X360®3=America&start=39453&end=39537&weekly=1

REASON:

1) why ps3 is below NPD numbers? With having in mind, that VG NA numbers get adjusted, after NPD numbers come.

2) why Wii and x360 so much above NPD numbers. PS3 is NOT selling there, where x360 and Wii sells?

I don't get your way of setting it up, but a nice job anyway. Still, I believe you're wrong.

Lifetime to date NPD (USA only) sales.

Wii: 10.9M

X360: 10.5M

Ps3: 4.9M

Lifetime to date NPD (USA only) sales. 10% seems really fair here, looking at the last LTD numbers I found, which are for January. Then it is fairly precisely 10% for each. Not totally, so these numbers slightly favour the Ps3, and dis-favour the Wii. I use 10%

Wii: 1.1M

X360: 1.1M

Ps3: 0.5M

So the total numbers go up to

Wii: 12M

X360: 11.6M

Ps3: 5.4M

 

Then there is a fairly giant base in Mexico. In a previous post, I wrote what I think is the possible base of buying in Mexico. That is a 16.5M base, that earns roughly the same as in USA, because of lower prices, etc. Read it in one of the quotes if you have questions.

This means that I expect an addition of roughly 5% here. But as we have no numbers, adding numbers is meaningless. Still, I believe the cheapest console, which also demands the cheapest TV, would sell more. a 700-900K prediction for Wii makes sense. I believe the HD consoles will lag VERY far behind here. I think Mexico has a > 2% of HD TVs, so buying them makes less sense.

Thus a totally fair prediction for NA totals would be

12.7-13M for Wii

11.9 - 12.2M for X360

5.5M - 5.7M Ps3

 

Now, the actual VGC numbers, excluding the 2 last weeks of hardware, as those are not included in NPD:

Wii: 12.5M

X360: 11.8M

Ps3: 5.3M

 

Looking at this, everything looks fairly fair.

 

Of course, my numbers are far, far from certain, but I believe they are much better than yours. You exclude 150M + of North America's population.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


You should see bigger picture here. The diffrence between 360 shipped and sold WW acording to VG is just 700k which doesn't make sense when even Wii had bigger gap last quarter. LTD 20.3 million shipped and Vg put 360 at 19.6 sold which there is something wrong an must probably NA figures need adjustment.



CrazzyMan on 18 July 2008

@Nutboy, RTFM.

NPD June include 1 week of July. Or total 5 weeks.
So it`s not -2 weeks of HW VG sales, but only 1.

@Oyvoyvoyv, same goes for you, so figure out new answer.

THAT`s the POINT, PS3 behind by 200k, while x360 and Wii match the lowest "a totally fair prediction for NA totals would be".

And i ask, WHY?



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

Oyvoyvoyv on 18 July 2008
shanbcn said:

 You should see bigger picture here. The diffrence between 360 shipped and sold WW acording to VG is just 700k which doesn't make sense when even Wii had bigger gap last quarter. LTD 20.3 million shipped and Vg put 360 at 19.6 sold which there is something wrong an must probably NA figures need adjustment.

 

I didn't know this, so thanks for posting. But still, you're at Worldwide numbers. That has next to nothing to do with what I posted. VGChartz is far less accurate in Others, so I'd say there's a bigger change it's overtracked there.

I can't really try to look at this, as WW is so much work it loses the fun.



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

Oyvoyvoyv on 18 July 2008
CrazzyMan said:

@Nutboy, RTFM.

NPD June include 1 week of July. Or total 5 weeks.
So it`s not -2 weeks of HW VG sales, but only 1.

@Oyvoyvoyv, same goes for you, so figure out new answer.

THAT`s the POINT, PS3 behind by 200k, while x360 and Wii match the lowest "a totally fair prediction for NA totals would be".

And i ask, WHY?

 

It's really awfully equal.

Also, add in the last 50M of the population (which I dunno which country residents in), and the numbers add up fairly perfectly. ioi never claimed he had 100% accuracy. What you're making a big deal out of is something that is likely to be 1-2% (50-100K) off maximum. The numbers are so close it's incredible, I for one think it's amazing how close the numbers are.

 

 



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

Around the Network
HappySqurriel on 18 July 2008

Is it just me or is anyone else getting tired of people using one tracking firm to argue that another tracking firm is over-tracking a system they dislike, and undertracking a system they like?

The fact of the matter is that all tracking firms have margins of errors, and it is quite possible that one tracking firm could be 2.5% below the real number of units sold and another traking firm could be 2.5% above the real number of units sold; this would result in the gap between the two firms looking (fairly) large at 5% but neither would be that far off of the real sales.

Realistically, the best way to know how much hardware has been sold over a given timeframe would be to wait for the companies to release their shipment numbers; the number of systems shipped for a system in a fiscal period should be (roughly) equal to the number of systems sold if the volume of stock in warehouses and retail stay (roughly) equal.



CrazzyMan on 18 July 2008

@Oyvoyvoyv,
PS3 numbers are BELOW NPD NA,
while Wii and x360 are FAR ahead.

Is there any reason, why ps3 didn`t sell there, where wii and x360 each sold +500k over NPD numbers?



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

Oyvoyvoyv on 18 July 2008
HappySqurriel said:

Is it just me or is anyone else getting tired of people using one tracking firm to argue that another tracking firm is over-tracking a system they dislike, and undertracking a system they like?

The fact of the matter is that all tracking firms have margins of errors, and it is quite possible that one tracking firm could be 2.5% below the real number of units sold and another traking firm could be 2.5% above the real number of units sold; this would result in the gap between the two firms looking (fairly) large at 5% but neither would be that far off of the real sales.

Realistically, the best way to know how much hardware has been sold over a given timeframe would be to wait for the companies to release their shipment numbers; the number of systems shipped for a system in a fiscal period should be (roughly) equal to the number of systems sold if the volume of stock in warehouses and retail stay (roughly) equal.

But Ps3 is being undertracked by almost 2% compared to Wii and X360! How can you ignore that? Don't you remember ioi stating that he is always within 1% off NPD?

And Crazzy, why did you go back to the 500K number? I've already stated reasons that number is incorrect, and answered every single part of the question just just posted.

 

 



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

FishyJoe on 18 July 2008

For some reason, his brain cannot comprehend that Amercias includes other countries besides US and Canada and that the PS3 isn't being sold in many of those countries yet officially.



CrazzyMan on 18 July 2008

June 2008.

Platform

NA VG Est

Wii

799,594

PS3

369,197

Xbox360

290,700

PSP

333,629

DS

839,110

PS2

162,840

Scaling the Americas data down to predict the totals in NPD gives the following estimates: 

Platform

USA VG Est

Wii

720,000

PS3

332,000

Xbox360

262,000

PSP

300,000

DS

755,000

PS2

147,000

Platform

USA NPD Est

Wii

666,700

PS3

405,500

Xbox360

219,800

PSP

337,400

DS

783,000

PS2

188,800

2008 LTD.

Platform

NA VG LTD Est

Wii

12,700,000

PS3

5,300,000

Xbox360

11,900,000

 

 

 

 

 

 

Scaling the Americas data down to predict the totals in NPD LTD gives the following estimates:

Platform

USA VG LTD Est

Wii

11,430,000

PS3

4,770,000

Xbox360

10,710,000

 

 

 

 

 

 

Platform

USA NPD LTD Est

Wii

10,900,000

PS3

4,900,000

Xbox360

10,500,000

 

 

 

 

 

 

OR it`s ok to SCALE American MONTHLY data, BUT NOT ok, to scale LTD???

Platform

USA VG LTD Est

Wii

530,000

PS3

130,000

Xbox360

210,000

 

 

 

 

 

 


Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far