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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official June NPD Thread (for the 5 weeks ending 7/5, data in ~6 hours)

Oyvoyvoyv on 18 July 2008

CrazzyMan, you know that we estimate that by subtracting out Canada. I've already proven that Mexico and the rest of NA should favour Wii, making the real difference very small.

"OR it`s ok to SCALE American MONTHLY data, BUT NOT ok, to scale LTD???"

Not really, because the monthly numbers are fairly unprecise (5-10% off is possible), while the LTD is very accurate. This means that doing it LTD messes up the accuracy, while the monthly is already so inaccurate it doesn't make a lot of difference.

North America is not USA + Canada, in fact, they present less than 2/3 of the total population in North America.



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Godot on 18 July 2008
Oyvoyvoyv said:

CrazzyMan, you know that we estimate that by subtracting out Canada. I've already proven that Mexico and the rest of NA should favour Wii, making the real difference very small.

"OR it`s ok to SCALE American MONTHLY data, BUT NOT ok, to scale LTD???"

Not really, because the monthly numbers are fairly unprecise (5-10% off is possible), while the LTD is very accurate. This means that doing it LTD messes up the accuracy, while the monthly is already so inaccurate it doesn't make a lot of difference.

North America is not USA + Canada, in fact, they present less than 2/3 of the total population in North America.

Mexico has about 103 million people while USA 300 + Canada 30 gives us 76% of NA. Besides, Mexico is really poor compared to USA and Canada so they don't buy nearly as much video games than USA and Canada.



How many cups of darkness have I drank over the years? Even I don't know...

 

DMeisterJ on 18 July 2008

I want MS SPIN!



WiiStation360 on 18 July 2008
DMeisterJ said:
I want MS SPIN!

XBox 360 outsold the dominant console* in the US by 16% this past month!

* by dominant console, we mean the PS2.

 



Oyvoyvoyv on 18 July 2008
Godot said:
Oyvoyvoyv said:

CrazzyMan, you know that we estimate that by subtracting out Canada. I've already proven that Mexico and the rest of NA should favour Wii, making the real difference very small.

"OR it`s ok to SCALE American MONTHLY data, BUT NOT ok, to scale LTD???"

Not really, because the monthly numbers are fairly unprecise (5-10% off is possible), while the LTD is very accurate. This means that doing it LTD messes up the accuracy, while the monthly is already so inaccurate it doesn't make a lot of difference.

North America is not USA + Canada, in fact, they present less than 2/3 of the total population in North America.

Mexico has about 103 million people while USA 300 + Canada 30 gives us 76% of NA. Besides, Mexico is really poor compared to USA and Canada so they don't buy nearly as much video games than USA and Canada.

I added that because he seems to believe so again and again.

Also, Mexico isn't the only other country, so 76% is totally wrong. The total is 523M, including all the countries in NA.

Another thing, the top 15% make up for the top 60% of the total income in Mexico. That means they average 30.000 dollars/year. Considering the far lower prices there, that does in reality equal the average in America. Meaning that those 16.5M are just as likely as Americans, if not more than as likely, to buy consoles.

Also, in poorer countries, people are more likely to buy the cheapest console if they buy one.

 



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

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Kenology on 18 July 2008
WiiStation360 said:
Kenology said:
And where's the Microsoft spin already!?

 

MS is normally quick with the spin. I would not be suprised if they skip the NPD reaction PR this month.

That would suck.  I could use a good laugh right about now and Microsoft PR spin would do it.



DMeisterJ on 18 July 2008
WiiStation360 said:
DMeisterJ said:
I want MS SPIN!

XBox 360 outsold the dominant console* in the US by 16% this past month!

* by dominant console, we mean the PS2.

w00t!

 



CrazzyMan on 18 July 2008

@Oyvoyvoyv,

1) What are VG US only LTD numbers for wii, x360 and PS3? Or that is UKNOWN?
2) Russia has 5 more of Canada population, i can bet, monthly HW sales are lower, then in Canada. So what again was your point?
China has >>>> Japan population.
3) So you agree, that ps3 is undertracked atleast by 200k in NA?



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

Gobias on 18 July 2008
WiiStation360 said:
DMeisterJ said:
I want MS SPIN!

XBox 360 outsold the dominant console* in the US by 16% this past month!

* by dominant console, we mean the PS2.

 

 

lulz.



As in go buy us some coffee.

http://speedhunters.com

Oyvoyvoyv on 18 July 2008
CrazzyMan said:
@Oyvoyvoyv,

1) What are VG US only LTD numbers for wii, x360 and PS3? Or that is UKNOWN?
2) Russia has 5 more of Canada population, i can bet, monthly HW sales are lower, then in Canada. So what again was your point?
China has >>>> Japan population.
3) So you agree, that ps3 is undertracked atleast by 200k in NA?

1) As far as I know, they are unkown.

2) If the total is 2/3 of Canada, my assumption is valid for the rest of NA. Japan is the most buying country for games, Wii isn't out in China. Japan wins by default

3. No.

 



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS