My estimates are based off past and assuming every console regardless of position now has the ability to fall into last place in sales thus no dominant console has ever had under 60% of the market to my knowledge and a 200 million market is likely this generation. So in my estimates the PS3 is able to pick up about 15% of that market if it is in last place thus splitting the 40% with the 2nd place console.

PS3: 30 million

The Xbox360 has a similar situation to the PS3 but has the advantage of its head start and its weekly sales were higher at this point in its life than the PS3's right now so worst case senario for the Xbox360 20% market share of 200 million.

Xbox360: 40 million

The Wii is growing pretty fast for a console to be doomed for last place in a generation and can't think of any situation in the past where a console with such growth has eventually fallen to this position. Still in the interest of being impartial I'll say the 20% split like the Xbox360 if people just absolutly turn against the system.

Wii: 40 million

I alos have no idea why nobody was interested in the may NPD, maybe everybody expected them to turn out the way they did, this thread are really interesting since it ´s not about what can or will change for the better but what could go wrong and why, the ones here who say console... cannot sell less than.... are on the devensive eather because they do have doubts or because they fell that if you admit things could go wrong they will (or they just have a confidence overflow from the PS2 there I sayed it ),fact is lots and lots of things could go wrong for everybody, I´m not saying they will it´s allmost impossible that so much will go wrong, quetion here is who has the most potential for disaster, sad as it may sound I see the PS3 there, but as staated here before it is most likely that it will start turning things aroung once price goes doen and games come, questins is when the last possible deadline is for this to happen, if there are no big changes in 2008 it might be to late.

I'll be the first to admit that my estimating numbers for the sales of the consoles is about on par with what I could tell you about your future by reading tea leafs. Which is why I haven't put my neck out with figures.

I am adept in the art of Cold Reading, although that is another story...

Anywho, I for one think ( and hope ) that PS3 will do better than Xbox in the long run, simply due to Xbox's design flaw that causes the overheating and red lights of death.

Hard to see anyone getting to gaming staying very long if they have to send back their console in regularly to get fixed, let alone continue to purchase a warranty to keep the thing running.

As far as I'm concerned, with the Elite -- not -- fixing the primary problem facing the 360, that console is still a lemon. Thing is M$ has lost so much money that if they asked for a recall, I think their share holders would but be up in arms for shutting down their gaming department.

Xbox has the best chances right now for some leverage to gain more of the "hardcore" market share due to lots of the exclusives bouncing its way, but personally with the high failure rates the box has, I can't call supporting a design flawed system as "hardcore." : More like foolishness.

I have a feeling that unless M$ fixes the design flaw now, when their race horse gets the gate opened for it to bolt, suddenly the green light will flicker with three portions of red circle.

This doesn't even begin to mention the disc scratching problems.

I think if Blu-Ray wins the battle, PS3 will gain in sales simply from people wishing to get the cheapest B/R player around. So long as Sony can VASTLY improve on it's own durability issues, I think the PS3 still has a good chance at pulling out silver in this race.

this thread really reminds me of Gin Rummy from Boondocks(Gin Rummy a spoof on Rumsfeld with the voice of Samuel L Jackson)

"There aren´t just things you know and things you don´t know, there are known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknows, so there is stuff we know about, stuff we know we don´t know about and stuff we don´t even dream about knowing." (explaining why he didn´t find WMDs in Iraq)

everybody should check out that show, it´s really really funny and has lots of truth to it

TheSource said: Hard to believe this thread is longer than the May NPD thread.

I think we enjoy talking about the further off more, because we will most likely not get called out, and we can let out our inner fanboys

well geez, if you want to talk about absolute worst case scenario I can give you the worst case figures:

Xbox360: 10 Million
Wii: 8.3 Million
PS3: 3.5 Million

after all, the world could end tomorrow ;)

omgwtfbbq said: well geez, if you want to talk about absolute worst case scenario I can give you the worst case figures: Xbox360: 10 Million Wii: 8.3 Million PS3: 3.5 Million after all, the world could end tomorrow ;)

 

1) Don't say 3.42 million for PS3, don't say 8.17 million for Wii, and don't say 10.0 million for 360.

2) Assume at the very least that all three are continually sold through Dec 31, 2008 (no Dreamcast arguments).

 

Read the topic plz. 

Rath said: omgwtfbbq said: well geez, if you want to talk about absolute worst case scenario I can give you the worst case figures: Xbox360: 10 Million Wii: 8.3 Million PS3: 3.5 Million after all, the world could end tomorrow ;)   1) Don't say 3.42 million for PS3, don't say 8.17 million for Wii, and don't say 10.0 million for 360. 2) Assume at the very least that all three are continually sold through Dec 31, 2008 (no Dreamcast arguments).   Read the topic plz.

but... but that was four pages ago ;)

boy is my face red =/

 

The Xbox will sell at least 30 million. Especially with halo 3 about to come out. It will probably sell at least 5 million of those by itself and with christmas around the corner when its hits they are going to sell every system they ship.
The PS3 worst case 10 million. If for some reason it doesn't turn around soon it could be another dream cast but since its a cheap blue ray player it can probably beat the dream cast by alittle.
Wii will do at least 40 million. As cheap as it is and as fast as its selling it could slow down to gamecube's pass the rest of its lifespan and get right at 40 million.
Xbox 360 30 million
PS3 10 million
Wii 40 million

Nintendo wii : 57 million units

X-box 360: 33 million units

Playstation 3: ???????

I dont know about the playstation 3 i think they have some think tricky up there sleeve.Ill tell you guys after christmas 07.