mrstickball on 01 July 2008
| Achieved | Game | LTD | Last Wk. | Probability | Analysis |
| 7/20/08 | Project Gotham 4 | 979,990 | 7,547 | 99.5% | One of the few gimmes of current releases. Still in the top 50, it'll reach 1m in about a month. It managed the 1m mark in 3 weeks versus my 5wk projection! |
| The Simpsons Game | 902,579 | 6,928 | 92.5% | Continuing to do very well, and is a near-certainty at 1m. | |
| NB 2k8 | 859,307 | 6,457 | 75.0% | Very good chance still. With the X360 Pro pricedrop, it should see slightly renewed sales. | |
| Lego SW2 | 940,000 | ??? | 80.0% | Holy crap! It moved! Jumped 10k in 3 weeks! | |
| Lego TCS | 788,123 | 6,503 | 70.0% | Like the Simpsons Game, it's been creeping up, and is selling incredibly well each week, despite no one noticing it. | |
| Lost Odyssey | 802,901 | 5,801 | 60.0% | Upgrading Lost Odysseys chances. It is still chugging along. About ready to fall off of the T50, however. | |
| Burnout Paradise | 790,820 |
Off T50 | 60.0% | Off the top-50, but still creeping up in sales. EA still is releasing content for the game, so it has a good chance of making the 1m mark at Christmas. | |
| Ninja Gaiden 2 | 699,209 | 9,366 | 60.0% | Starting to show some kind of legs. Thanks to a slight resurgence in JP, it still has a good (but not great) chance at 1m. It needs to stay above 10k for a month+ |
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| Lego: IJ | 394,506 | 13,796 | 45.0% | It's drops haven't been quite as good as the Star Wars series. However, it could hover around 10k for ages. |
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| Battlefield: BC | 823,038 | 23,779 | 100.0% |
Still a lock. 60k this most recent week has it crossing 1m at some point. My projection was Week 16, which looks do-able. |
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| Guitar Hero: Aerosmith | 321,651 | 21,352 | 15.0% | About DOA for it's run at 1m. ~20k this early into it's run is NOT a good sign. |
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| NCAA Football 09 | 495,932 | 12,477 | 65.0% | ||
| Soul Calibur IV | 746,715 | 41,117 | 99.0% | ||
| Tales of Vesperia | 195,586 | 62,794 | 50.0% | ||
Initial Predictions.:
| Achieved | Game | First Wk | LTD Proj. | Chance @ 1m | Analysis |
| Battlefield: BC | ~250,000 | 1.1m | 90.0% | US and PAL actuals aren't out, but it's seemed to do well for it's first week in PAL Land. BF2:MC did 430k in the US alone, but I think that BC can do well, with the lack of recent FPS games. | |
| Guitar Hero: Aerosmith | 200,000 | 1.25m | 95.0% | Big question is how they count sales on this one. GH3 has done over 3m on the 360. That's a huge base for idiots to pick up thier Aerosmith game. | |
| Unreal Tournament 3 | 150,000 | ~800k | 50.0% |
Not a great shot at it. UT3 on PS3 has done 500k LTD, and most X360 FPSes have done twice that of PS3. However, UT3's been out for months. Does this stand a chance? I think it does, but not a good one. Update: UT3 is DOA in the 1m Run. 150k in 3 weeks won't get it anywhere near 1m. It will be lucky to hit 500k. |
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| NCAA Football 2009 | 350,000 | 900k | 75.0% |
VGC.com sez NCAA 08 did worse than 07. Can that be true? I've always felt that NCAA was superior to Madden. With the larger X360 userbase, it should reach 1m. But anything is possible, I guess. |
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| Soul Calibur 4 | 200,000 | 850k | 70.0% | I am really unsure here. The world needs another major fighter, and SC4 could and should deliver, but VGC has very little data for any SC since SC1 on DC. I think it has a good shot at 1m (probably 70%), but I don't have data t back up that kind of analysis. | |
| Madden 2009 | 800,000 | 2.5m+ | 100.0% | The first true shoe-in. Question is if it could hit 1m first week alone. Madden saw a 500k+ increase on the 360 from 07 to 08. Could we see the same this time around? Could it hit 3m? | |
| Tales of Vespria | 175,000 | 800k | 60.0% | There's no true data to back up Tales sales history, aside from Symphonia at 1.1m worldwide. That's amazing for a Gamecube RPG, so a 360 version stands a chance, right? Expect huge Japanese sales. Question is how the west buys it: only 170,000 copies of Sonata sold in the US...This will play a huge factor in it's chances. | |
| Too Human | 200,000 | 1m | 75.0% | The subject of much scrutiny and debate. Looks like a nice, fun ARPG, but has recieved a bit of negative press lately. Despite this, there's still pent up hype and demand for such a game. Has a very good shot at 1m, but I am being very consiverative in light of its "bad" news as of late. | |
| Brothers in Arms: HH | 250,000 | 1m | 75.0% | A mystery, as VGC has no data for BIA. I would think that, despite it being a WW2 shooter, it stands a good shot at 1m. Nevertheless, it's "yet another shooter". | |
| Mercenaries 2 | 175,000 | 900k | 70.0% | VGC only has PS2 data for Mercs in the US - 620,000. Again, considering the X360 userbase, I think Mercs has a great shot at 1m eventally. I thought that it was a 1m seller on the Xbox, but I haven't seen anything. | |
| Lego Batman | 150,000 | 1m | 70.0% | Like Lego:IJ and Lego: SW, it's had a good track record on the 360, and Batman is a little bit bigger than IJ, IMO. | |
| Tom Clancy's H.A.W.X | 150,000 | 800k | 60.0% | Hmm. On one hand it's a Clancy game...On the other, Ace Combat 6 is supposedly at 500,000 between the US and Japan. Air fighter games aren't as popular as they were (atleast from what I've seen), but it *is* Tom Clancy. | |
| Fable 2 | 500,000 | 3m | 100.0% | Xbox 360's 2nd Shoe-in thus far. Not a matter of if, but a matter of 2nd or 3rd week (or 1st, even?). Not a huge Fable fan, but F2 could be the game that F1 was supposed to be, and sales could lead that way too. | |
| Silent Hill: Homecoming | 150,000 | 750k | 55.0% | A big mystery. There's no data to back up any sort of solid analysis. Yet I thought that SH was a really big series? SH: Origins sold 3x what it did in Japan on the PSP, so I think there's a decent shot at it getting to 1m, but I could be wrong. Only game I have Pre-Ordered ATM. | |
| Fallout 3 | 350,000 | 2m+ | 100.0% | Oblivion did well over 2m, and I don't expect F3 to be any different - even with a day-and-date PS3 version. | |
| NBA 2k9 | 200,000 | 900k | 70.0% | See NBA 2k8 Notes. | |
| Saints Row 2 | 300,000 | 1.5m | 98.0% | SR did very well on the 360 as a surprise hit. I don't see SR2 backing down in the sales department. Again, even with it being multi-plat this time around. | |
| Fifa Soccer 09 | 200,000 | 1m | 95.0% | Fifa 08 sold 1m, so I'd think that it's set a very good precident for the series hitting 1m on the box. | |
| Tom Clancy's Endwar | 200,000 | 900k | 75.0% | See H.A.W.X. However, this one has more shooting in it. So it stands an even better chance - even if it's an RTS (and Halo Wars could help the genre, too) | |
| Guitar Hero 4 | 300,000 | 3m | 100.0% | See Guitar Hero 3/Aerosmith. Not a matter of if, but how quickly. Even with RB2 out, GH4 will be a 1m seller. | |
| Dead Space | 250,000 | 1m | 80.0% | Good shot at 1m. Despite being an EA Survival-Horror game, it doe have the advantage of EA's great track record of FPSes on the 360. | |
| Gears of War 2 | 3m | 8m | 100.0% | Could it hit 1m day 1? Easily, I think. | |
| Left 4 Dead | 350,000 | 1.5m | 95.0% | Should be in a similar situation to what RSV was when GOW1 came out: smaller week-1 sales than the beast, but will hit 1m. Some of us prefer L4D over GOW2 so... | |
| Tomb Raider: UW | 150,000 | 900k | 75.0% | Ok. My girlfriend would kill me if I didn't mention this. TR:L hit 700k in the US+PAL, so UW has a great shot since it's debuting much closer to Christmas than Legends did, and Legends (IMO) re-established the series as being somewhat relevant. | |
| Banjo Kazooie 3 | 300,000 | 1.5m | 90.0% | Not a shoe in, but it could wind up doing insane, too. Don't fear for Rare: even Viva Pinata is now well over the 1m mark (remember when VP debuted at 20k? I do!) | |
| Infinite Undiscovery | 200,00 | 800k | 40.0% | Not the best shot. But it does have the advantage of debuting near Christmas, in a Post-Lost Odyssey, Post-Vespria world, that should be far more excited for JRPGs, it has a small chance of it. | |
Updated: 7/23/08.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
