July.

2007.

given the may NPD data... Wii has another 1.6 mil to make up in 1.5 months.   which is... right on.

John Lucas... July?! Aren't you being a little optimistic?!

I think that Wii will take over 360 by early September... Than to gain a lead of aprox 400k units.

And then comes Halo! Which will put Wii behind 360 again... But by a mere 200k. And then come Super mario galaxy and super smash bros: Brawl. And they are the ones that will finally give that  last push towards 1st place... Putting it out of reach for the 360 for the near future!

Btw: PS3 will stay right where it is... Securely locked in 3th place.... And how!  

Grtz... StarcraftManiac.

 Faith that moves mountains. You believe in Wii's success even stronger than I in PS3's

frankly, it's nice to see predictions of John Lucas's type. they're so... out there, unmistakeable, falsifiable, which is key.

but i think it'll be spot on. 8.2 Wii', 9.9 360's as of now, a difference of 1.7 mil. with 7 weeks to go, that's pretty much spot on.

it appears that nintendo is shipping only 900k a month these days, which would make july a tad bit early. august is a sure bet (metroid) which is a no-fun prediction.

Well, we can look at updated figures now:

Wii:

 - NA: 400k / month (approx)
 - Japan: 300k / month (approx)
 - Europe: 300k / month (??)

360:
 - NA: 170k / month (from NPD?)
 - Japan: 15k / month
 - Europe: ???? say 75k ???

...

Wii - about 1m/month

360 - about 260-300k/month

...

Wii will gain 700k-750k (approx) / month on the 360, or 150k globally/week.

After adjusting for NPD figures, gap between the 360 & Wii globally is (approx) 1.7m. And already taken into account first week of sales in June. Gap will take about 11 weeks to reach - or the end of August/start September.

If 360 sales halve from now, the Wii will gain around 200k/week - which will take 9 weeks to bridge the gap, which places it in mid-August.

Thoughts?

shams: very reasonable.

if they start shipping 1.3 mln a month, (since that's the "metric" we have some reports on), july would be spot on--a gain of ~ 1mln a month.

it's a little unlikely... but i'd say it's 25%, which is still fairly good odds.

I thought for a while that Halo wouldn't sell too many 360s, since Halo lovers already own 360s, but after talking to a few of my friends, it doesn't seem to be the case.

One of my friends who owns the first Xbox loves Halo...he's even read the books. But he doesn't know anything about Halo 3. I asked him about it, and he thought it was coming out for the first Xbox...it was a little amusing. So anyway, if there's people like that out there, then I can see plenty of 360s selling when Halo comes out so they can play it.

Thank you, Lingyis.

What's life unless you go out on that limb? I neither bent nor broke. I stuck with my visions.

Your word means nothing if it's fickle. The man who goes against the grain and survives becomes legend.

Everything is a foregone conclusion for me with Wii.

End of 2007 ~> Wii = AT LEAST 20 million sold-through worldwide. Best case scenario = 24 million.

Let's see how "crazy" I am on this one.

John Lucas 

 That would be correct if the 360 sold no more console.  I personally think it's going to be late August or early September, either way, September is going to be an interesting month.  Halo 3, Jericho, Assassin's Creed and that's just on the 25th.  As far as I remember Nintendo doesn't have their heavy hitters releasing then (that have release dates) and I guessing the others are going to be October-December releases.

 Personally, I think Halo 3 will boost sales.  Ben is right, there are still a fair number of people that do have Halo 2 on an XBox and no 360 and those people will buy a 360 for Halo 3.  I don't think it's going to make a huge impact, but it will be a noticable one.

John, you don't read Nintendo's press releases, do you?

The Wii won't sell 20m by the end of December. Nintendo said in their last statement that no matter what, there won't even be 20 million Wiis made by then.

So your "prediction" - debunked. Nintendo can't randomly ramp up production and made 12 to 16 million Wiis in less than 6 months. I'm not saying that the Wii won't sell tons, but they just can't make that many systems this early in it's life - even the Playstation 2 wasn't able to be produced (2m+ units a month) at that level within 12 months of launch.