o.k.

So far this year the 360 has increased its lead by 5 ( from 16 to 21) in 6 months.
I expect the Wii to close the gap by 3-4 after the holydays as Wii games will have better legs than 360 games after the holydays ( but a lot of the hyped 360 games for the holydays won't need legs as they will already made the million mark by Chrismas).

The beginning of 2009 looks to be quite open as aside from Re5 I do not see any huge game that would release on the 360 and not on the Wii.

Wii.

Wii.

I really don't know how anyone could come to a conclusion OTHER than the 360. Taking out its current lead, the BUYING trends favor it more than the other consoles. While the Wii can be a software beast, it seems to be limited to key software (particularly Nintendo 1st party). The 360 million sellers seem to come from everywhere and, as the price cut effect grows, expect more casual and family titles to enter the 1 million sold club.

Its definitely POSSIBLE that the Wii can take this, though, just based on the potential console base as the years go on.

Anybody that says PS3 is in hopeless fanboy denial. Period.

I do agree that the 360 should win this and recent results seem to confirm ( hardware wise the Wii just had its best 6 months ever against the 360 and still the 360 increased its lead by 6 in the same period).

Main reason the 360 will win is that key huge franchises are not getting Wii releases which seriously limits the number of third party million sellers on the Wii.

If we look ahead to 2009 , so far we have 2 huge titles announced, both without a Wii release, I am speaking of course of Re5 and FF XIII.

Honestly, when I look at Wii's million-seller list, it seems like it's 30, going on 100. I will not be surprised if there's 100 Wii million-sellers by the end of 2009.

The difference can be seen in the types of games that are being bundled with 360's for the holidays. LEGO Indy and SEGA Tennis, in particular, are two games which look like they could sell 1m on Wii without a bundle. LEGO Batman, Sonic Unleashed and Shaun White are some more recent games which will probably sell better on Wii. That's where 360 has a disadvantage.

I made this list earlier of under-the-radar games to watch for Wii...

Game Party 2
Boogie Superstar
Carnival Games: Mini-Golf
Jillian Michael's Fitness Ultimatum
Naruto: Clash of Ninja Revolution 2
All-Star Cheer Squad
Ben 10: Alien Force
MySims Kingdom
Hasbro Family Game Night
Imagine: Party Babyz
Star Wars: The Clone Wars: Lightsaber duels
Cooking Mama: World Kitchen
Rayman Raving Rabbids: TV Party.
Nerf N-Strike

These are games which were all released in October and November of this year, and aren't on 360 or PS3, and are the type of thing to watch to help make up the million-seller gap. People generally don't look at these as "major" releases, and some of them might only sell 250K. But a lot of them will sell 1m, and some will sell 2m or more.

Take the last game on the list, Nerf N-Strike. I didn't even consider it originally. But then there was anecdotal evidence that it was getting a lot of attention, and now ioi is tracking it as a possible big Black Friday seller. It will probably be a million-seller.

Wii needs those game so that the gap doesn't increase...

Don't forget that to counter those the HD consoles got a tonn of huge hyped title that just got released or will soon...

Gears 2, CoD5, Fable 2 and Fallout 3 are already on the million-sellers list for 360. GHIV and Rock Band 2 will sell 1m on both consoles.

There's L4D and Saint's Row 2 and some other things, but most of the 360's holiday lineup is accounted for, other than the bundles.

Between the bundles and a couple of older games on the verge, and a couple of recent releases yet to hit 1m, it looks like 360 should reach 60+ by the end of the holidays. It will still have the lead at that point, of course.

Wii - 30 (+5)

360 - 53 (+12)

PS3 - 18 (+3)

Be interesting to see the final scores by 09.