leo-j said:
I believe the ps2 was around 17 million when FF X was released. |
In NA 7,7 millions when FFX was released, in Others 8,2 millions and in Japan 5 millions. Remember the gap was of 6 months in each region. So total around 21 millions. PS3 will be way ahead of 21 million when FF13 come out but i don't know if it will be around 5 million in Japan.
I don´t understand why people are talking about Metal Gear Solid here - the game sold 1.4 million during the first week but Japan saw a huge decline in sales this week. (bigger than any game of the series, remember!)
The problem with PS3 games is legs. This is why you can point out first week sales as often as you want, we need the first month of sales to be able to accurately compare the game to previous games of the series. The same goes for Final Fantasy: The legs will determine wheter it is a success or not.
So why not wait for next weeks data before we use its sales numbers to prove anything?
On topic: I´d say the game will sell somewhere between 5 and 7.5 million units. It´s a new generation so you never know. Maybe people are tired of the Final Fantasy series now (usually, you should expect the game to sell less than Final Fantasy X, though: Final Fantasy VII sold more than Final Fantasy X and given the PS3´s smaller userbase it is highly likely that the game will sell less than X. Look at Mario Party sales for comparism: The first game on each console always sold the most and Mario Party 1 sold more than 4. Mario Party 8, on the other hand, sells great now because of the bigger userbase.), maybe people are just waiting for a game like Final Fantasy XIII to "blow them away". (look at "The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time" for comparism - smaller userbase but higher sales)
We can only tell what is more likely. Currently I´d say the game will sell between 5 and 7.5 million units.
| sc94597 said: It seems to me that some people ignore the fact that the ps3 is NOT the ps1 or ps2 and doesn't have anywhere near the userbase, or will have anywhere near the userbase when FF XIII is released. They are predicting 7+mln lifetime sales for the game. These are some examples . Now I'm not saying anyway sales will be bad since 7 million is really good even for a final fantasy game, I'm just saying people have their expectaiotions too high. I don't believe FFXIII will be the largest selling FF game though. Also don't bring MGS4 into this because theres a difference between selling to 25% of a userbase and to 90-100% of a userbase.
My predictions for FFXIII's lifetime sales are Japan- 2mln Others- 1-2 mln U.S- 3 mln Total- 6-7mln |
i don't know what the point of this post is. i don't think anyone possessing the ability to think rationally expects FFXIII to greatly exceed 7mil or to boost the ps3 to ps2 status in japan. In Japan, HD gaming seems to be pretty much dead. maybe wii 2 can save it.
"Dr. Tenma, according to you, lives are equal. That's why I live today. But you must have realised it by now...the only thing people are equal in is death"---Johann Liebert (MONSTER)
"WAR is a racket. It always has been.
It is possibly the oldest, easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious. It is the only one international in scope. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives"---Maj. Gen. Smedley Butler
| hunter_alien said: I agree with some parts , not all of them ( to bored to write them ) but Nintendo would be stupid to release a Zelda game during the FFXIII launch . Zelda is big , but far from being a FF killer in Japan ;) Also , MH3 could be a hit or miss . Dont expect it to do MHP2G sales or have the same legs ... |
It would be a horrible idea to counter a final fantasy with a zelda in Japan especially considering Zelda games tend to be more well received in NA. To put it quite blunt I want FF13 to fail, I dislike the route they're going since 7 and beyond(with a few exceptions.) I found FF12 to be boring and bland, one of the few FF games I found myself struggling to play through(8 10-2 & 12) and hearing FF13 will use it's battle system already has me turned off on the thing. I hope FFIV on the DS sells better and SE makes more traditional games.
If your calculations are even wrong to 2 million units I don't think anyone would complain about it.
I think some people are forgetting one very important thing when speculating about sales for FF13. When FF13 comes out the PS3 will be in the mid 20 million range and FF13 will stay on store shelves for AT LEAST 24 months, so that is another 20 million console sales at current sales rates (Sony said they expect to ship around 10 million this year). So the PS3 could be around 45 million units when FF13 is taken off of shelves and to get 7 million (which is great for any game not named GTA) it wouldn't need the big attach rates that people are thinking about. And since Final Fantasy has such name recognition people just picking up a PS3 at the end of FF13's shelf life would strongly consider picking it up as it would be a Greatest Hit and cheap. It's funny how some of the arguments are talking about trying to get 7 million sales the first week or something, the PS3 isn't going to stop selling the moment FF13 comes out and it will sell after the first week so if you are the type that has to argue about this you have to take future console sales into consideration also.
sc94597 said:
Of course, that is why I compared it mostly to X. Also MGS4 was possible, do you really believe that FFXIII will have such large attach rates? 25% vs 90/100% That is one of the reasons why I don't believe square enix will release it this year. The ps3 needs a much larger install base in japan, or they will have to make it even more popular in the west, with the cost of japanese sales. Also I highly doubt others will sell 3mln. X only sold 2 mln, and VII only sold 2.7 mln.
|
Don't sleep on the "others" region. This gen around, ps3 has seen some of its best sales in "others" not America or Japan. The others region is the growing market while hardcore gaming is almost saturated in NA and JP
"Dr. Tenma, according to you, lives are equal. That's why I live today. But you must have realised it by now...the only thing people are equal in is death"---Johann Liebert (MONSTER)
"WAR is a racket. It always has been.
It is possibly the oldest, easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious. It is the only one international in scope. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives"---Maj. Gen. Smedley Butler
| cwbys21 said: I think some people are forgetting one very important thing when speculating about sales for FF13. When FF13 comes out the PS3 will be in the mid 20 million range and FF13 will stay on store shelves for AT LEAST 24 months, so that is another 20 million console sales at current sales rates (Sony said they expect to ship around 10 million this year). So the PS3 could be around 45 million units when FF13 is taken off of shelves and to get 7 million (which is great for any game not named GTA) it wouldn't need the big attach rates that people are thinking about. And since Final Fantasy has such name recognition people just picking up a PS3 at the end of FF13's shelf life would strongly consider picking it up as it would be a Greatest Hit and cheap. |
Kinda tough to say where PS3 will be given we have no firm release date or even year. Hell with previous translation rates Europe and others might not see the game till 2010. I really hope we don't have to wait this long I'm sick of hearing about it lol There's so many things sales could speed up slow down, natural disasters can stop them completely for short periods who the hell knows. I wouldn't be so willing to say 20,000,000PS3's... and by the way shipping 10,000,000 this year doesn't mean they'll sell them all.
Pristine20 said:
Don't sleep on the "others" region. This gen around, ps3 has seen some of its best sales in "others" not America or Japan. The others region is the growing market while hardcore gaming is almost saturated in NA and JP
|
Well others have never been really big in FF sales, but it still possible that sales increase in that region.
@cwbys21 FF games never had large legs, and usally get most their sales in the first month or two. I don't see it being on shelves for 24 months going to help it reach too far.
| Soriku said: 6-7 million? Didn't FF X sell 7 mil? That was on the PS2. Sorry, but the PS3 is in now way as popular as the PS2. It just seems to me you're taking (delusional) Sony fan predictions and saying "here's my predictions." Honestly, some people just have too much high hopes for this game. Yes, it will sell many PS3s. Yes, it will be pretty successful. But will it sell PS2 SW numbers? I highly doubt it. |
It sold 8 mil. I said that in the op too.
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