sc94597 said:
It seems to me that some people ignore the fact that the ps3 is NOT the ps1 or ps2 and doesn't have anywhere near the userbase, or will have anywhere near the userbase when FF XIII is released. They are predicting 7+mln lifetime sales for the game. These are some examples .
Here is why it won't sell more than 7 mIn lifetime maximum.
Userbase- The japanese sales compete with the U.S as the most important region for a final fantasy game depending on which game in reference. For now I'm going to use X since its the latest entry that was the first of its console. X sold abou t8 mln lifetime. 3 million of these sales come from japan. Now look at the ps3s userbase in japan. Of course it won't be the same as it is now when FF XIII is released, but I think we could all agree unless existing trends change that the ps3s userbase will be in the 3-3.5 million range in Japan around the earliest time XIII will most likely be released( around march next year). Now in order for XIII to reach these Xs sales in japan iy would have to have an attach rate of about 90-100% if the ps3s japanes hardware is abou are 3-3.5 million at the time. Now this is without counting ps3s that are sold for FFXIII, but we can't determine how many of those will be sold. Now this is an incredible attach rate to have. Even higher than the than wii sports which is about the same in popularity. So I would say that the most it could sell in japan is a little over 2.5 million, and it will most likely bee under that.The userbase of the other regions is smaller too, but not at the level as japan. So you guys who say it will sell on par or better than previous installments do know that about every japanese ps3 owner in japan will have to buy this game if sales stay constant.
Possible Competition- FFX didn't have any competition . The gamecube was doing around ps3 sales and didn't get too many jrpgs, and the xbox was dead in japan. Things are different this generation though. The wii has most of the sales in Japan, and we are already seeing alot of japanese support coming from third parties, and first party games. There are many big games nintendo could release to negate any effects FFXIII has on the wii in this region. Examples being Zelda, New Wii Series Game, New Mario Spinoff, Pokemon,Monster Hunter 3 etc. This is without mentioning rpgs on the ds and psp. An example being dragon quest. You could say all you want about Final Fantasy being popular in Japan, but so are games like pokemon, dragon quest, Zelda, Wii Series, Mario. Some even more so. Now alot of japanese would have to make a choice due to many reasons but the biggest one being a budget. Alot would pick FF,but alot of others would pick any of these other games too so this coud cause a decrease in sales. Also for other regions some of these games coudl be considered competition, and many 360 games too. Again alot of people would have to make a choice. Also during the time of FFX's release the gamecube and Xbox were just hitting the market.
Others- If you look at the sales of FFXII, you will see that the sales in the region considered others didn't break a million. So we do not know that sales will go back up to the usual 2 million, and there is a great chance they will stay in the same area or decline.
Effect it will have on ps3 sales- FFXIII, WILL NOT save the ps3 in japan. Maybe if it came out near launch, but past trends show that once one console wins nothing could save it. Nintendo fans during the n64 days said that ocarina of time would save the n64, but did it? No, I believe it increased sales for a few weeks, but then it just went back to where it was before. So don't expect it so save the ps3, rather than boost it's sales a few weeks-months.
Conclusion- FFXIII, will most likely not sell more than 7 mln lifetime in all regions. And this is with me guessing square enix will boost western appeal for the game. It will probably more than likely sell 5 or 6 mln.lifetime, and there should be no reason ps3 fans are going around saying it will outsell FFVII, or sell 8-15 mln. I know it's not all of you, but quite a few are doing this. Also please only posts that are to agree or disagree with my argument, and they should explain why. I shouldn't see any 1 line posts that have no meaning, but fanboyism, and I've been seeing this alot these days. Also don't think I'm a good analysis, but neither a some people who actually beleive this game will be the best selling FF.
Now I'm not saying anyway sales will be bad since 7 million is really good even for a final fantasy game, I'm just saying people have their expectaiotions too high. I don't believe FFXIII will be the largest selling FF game though. Also don't bring MGS4 into this because theres a difference between selling to 25% of a userbase and to 90-100% of a userbase.
My predictions for FFXIII's lifetime sales are
Japan- 2mln
Others- 1-2 mln
U.S- 3 mln
Total- 6-7mln
|
