I posted the same question with different words when I asked if the Wii will reach >= 50% market share in 2008 back in February or so.

Personally, I sort of doubt it for this year.  The primary reason is that the Wii supply has not yet reached the 2.4 million units that Nintendo said they'd shoot for and the secondary reason is that the PS3 is doing a little better than expected.  It's still possble, but Nintendo would have to ramp up supply significantly.

No It will never make 50% market share.

If it doesn't happen this year, it happens in 2009.

The OP is about as piss-poor an analysis as all those Wii hate articles.

It just makes general assumptions about Wii buyers, while completely ignoring actual numbers, like the number of the gap between the Wii and the HD systems, which has actually gotten smaller by nearly two million in less than a month.

yep

If things stay the same as now it will but I don't think things will stay this way forever or even very long (no, I'm not saying that the Wii will stop selling, I'm saying that all it takes to keep it from attaining or keeping a 50% + marketshare is a slight increase in the sales of the other two).

It'll get there. I'm guessing it'll do it by the end of 09 at the latest.

Let's look at this objectively, in ~6 month increments:

January 5 2007: Gap = 6.21 million
29th June 2007: Gap = 5.19 million
January 4 2008: Gap = 5.58 million
Today: Gap = 5.12 million

(I hope I didn't screw up, it was a lot of numbers to add and subract)

The gap has gotten smaller, but has been more or less stable for a year. However, Nintendo is on the verge of bringing additional production online.

If production had kept up with demand, the Wii would probably have overcome the gap already.

Likely will surpass if there are no supply constrain issues. However, we don't know if the PS60 sales are going rise more or lower...

^well even if they rise it doesnt mean that wii sales wont rise