ssj12 said:
not totally true, a lot of people use VOD to confirm if a movie is worth purchasing on DVD or Blu-ray. This is why for the last two weeks of sales data from Neilson VideoScan Blu-ray revenue has been around 10 million and DVD revenue between 120 and 140 million dollars. IF you divide the MSRP price for Bluray, $35, into 10 million you get 285,714 movies sold. Now taking DVD's MSRP of $25, devided into 130 million, you get 5,200,000. If you use my quick estimates it shows that VOD might be have a ton of watchers but a ton of people still by into hard media. My estimates still dont take into account for discounts and other sales. |
I agree that physical media still has a place for right now; I am talking more about the future. Look at CD sales for a probable vision to the future of DVDs/BRs; they still sell, but there is no more growth. All the growth is in other areas. If you were to look at Blu-Ray purchasers, I am going to pull a number out of my ass and say that 90% of them probably bought DVDs as well. In that sense, Blu-Ray is just cannibalizing an existing purchaser base.
VoD lowers the barrier to entry for people to watch it (by in some cases being free with ads, in other cases being an add-on to a subscription people already had, etc). Because of thise, it can expand to reach new people and provide growth in the market, because you don't have to spend $30 on the DVDs to see if Friday Night Lights is worth watching (hint: it is, and I've purchased in on physical media). However, because with VOD you can expand to new customers, the overall growth of the market is greater.
As time goes on, physical media will get more and more outdated until the point where it is seen more as a nuisance than anything else; for many people, CDs are reaching that point (or have already passed it).
Granted, the movie/TV companies will like this no more than the record companies like the transition; DVDs and Blu-Ray are high margin, low volume; a show like Friday Night Lights, or Firefly, or any number of underappreciated shows can have respectable DVD sales because of a devoted audience, even if they do not pull in the huge ratings.
VoD, on the other hand, is high-volume low-margin (i.e, ad-supported or subscription supported for the most part). VoD, will never be as profitable per copy as DVD/BR. It balances that out by making it available to be appreciated by a huge audience.
It will be a long, slow process; but I would be more comforable with having my money invested in companies going the digital distribution route than the physical media route at this point. If you disagree, you're welcome to invest your money elsewhere. I just think mine would be the safer one ;-P.
Please, PLEASE do NOT feed the trolls.
fksumot tag: "Sheik had to become a man to be useful. Or less useful. Might depend if you're bi."
--Predictions--
1) WiiFit will outsell the pokemans.
Current Status: 2009.01.10 70k till PKMN Yellow (Passed: Emerald, Crystal, FR/LG)