This is for 2007.

2006 was primarily driven by Zelda, Wii Sports, Rayman, Red Steel, Excite Truck, Madden & Trauma Center.

Here is my list of important Wii games for the Americans (released in 2007) in 2007 - according to IGN (a bit dangerous before E3)

10 Most Important Game Releases:

Wii Play (Feb), Wii Music (October), Super Mario Galaxy, Pokemon Stadium (June), Brawl, Guitar Hero III, Scarface, MySims, Metroid Prime 3 (August), Manhunt 2 (July)

Those choices may seem strange, but Wii Play proves there is is a market for titles in the Wii Sports vein that people will pay for (I mean do you really believe 1/3 of the userbase needed another controller? I don't, they are easy enough to find).  Scarface is interesting because it is getting reviewed well, but doesn't have as much hype as Manhunt II, which will be the game that determines Take 2 support for Wii.  Pokemon will determine how people react to Nintendo dipping it's toe in online.  Galaxy, Brawl, Prime are for Nintendo fans and traditional gamers, while Guitar Hero 3, MySims and Wii Music are all meant to appeal to casual and potential casual audiences.

Other Significant Releases:

Warioware, Sonic and the Secret Rings, SSX Blur, Tiger Woods 07', Super Paper Mario, Boogie, Nights, Soul Calibur Legends, Big Brain Academy, Mario Party 8, Battallion Wars 2, DDR Hot Mix, Mario Strikers, Resident Evil Umbrella Chronicles, Wii Playground, Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games, Fire Emblem, Disaster: Day of Crisis, Dewey's Adventure, Madden, NCAA, Fight Night, Tiger Woods 08', Resident Evil 4 Wii, NBA Live, Space Station Tycoon, Geometry Wars, Harry Potter, Driver, Rayman 2, Zack and Wiki (used to be Treasure Island Z), Driver, Rayman 2, The Simpsons, WWE Smackdown, Harvest Moon.

Again, this is all based on IGN's release lists.  But with that said, here is my guess at the million sellers...

Super Mario Galaxy, Wii Play, Warioware, Super Paper Mario, Mario & Sonic (life time..) Mario Party 8, Metroid Prime 3, Super Smash Brothers Brawl, MySims, Pokemon Stadium, Gutiar Hero III, Harry Potter, Fight Night 3.

Games that will do 500k to 1 million in the Americas:

Madden 08, WWE Smackdown, Rayman 2, Big Brain Academy, Battallion Wars 2, Wii Music, Scarface, RE Umbrella Chronicles, Wii Playground, DDR Hot Mix, Soul Calibur Legends, Mario Strikers, Disaster: Day of Crisis

300k to 500k in the Americas

The Simpsons, Driver, Geometry Wars, Nights, Dewey's Adventrue, Sonic & the Secret Rings, Tiger Woods 07', Tiger Woods 08', Manhunt 2.

I base alot of this on talking to friends, and other Wii owners.  I have strange tastes but for the year overall I imagine I'll get about 15 games.

Games I already bought (that were released in 2007, I bought three other games from 2006 which I discard)

Sonic & the Secret Rings, Super Paper Mario

Games I'm getting no matter what:

Super Mario Galaxy, Nights, Metroid Prime 3, Super Smash Brothers Brawl, DDR Hot Mix, Fire Emblem

Games I'm interested in (will buy if most reviews are good)

Disaster: Day of Crisis, Dewey's Adventure, Zack & Wiki, Geometry Wars, The Simpsons, Mario Strikers, Battallion Wars 2, Soul Calibur Legends, Guitar Hero III, Space Station Tycoon, Fight Night 3, Scarface, Wii Music

Games I'd buy if reviews were outstandingly & unwaveringly supportive:

Mario & Sonic, Wii Playground, Boogie, Big Brain Academy, Mario Party 8, Mario & Sonic

Basically, I expect to buy the following games (released in 2007) this year, if they all turn out well

Nintendo:  Super Mario Galaxy, Metroid Prime, Brawl, Fire Emblem, Disaster (published by Nintendo), Super Paper Mario*, Mario Strikers, Wii Music, Battallion Wars 2

Sega: Nights, Sonic & The Secret Rings*

Konami: Dewey's Adventure, DDR Hot Mix

EA: The Simpsons, Fight Night 3

Namco: Space Station Tycoon, Soul Calibur Legends

Others: Zack & Wiki (Capcom), Scarface (uh I forget), Geometry Wars (I forget)

I have concerns about a number of these games though - whether it be release dates, or how the games turn out.  I'm worried most about Namco and EA..those 4 games could be great done correctly, but I have my doubts they will be..I assume a few of these games will be pushed back as well.  So I'm prepared to buy 14 Wii games (game budget = $700.).  Don't get me started on what I want for other consoles...Regardless, as I've posted above, I think the games I am interested in are among the games that will sell best.

How many of these games do you plan to purchase and what do you think will sell well in the Americas?

There are lots of titles I'm following and interested in trying out -- frankly I have no idea how I'll afford them all come this Fall/Winter, -- but the sleeper of the group in my mind is going to be Battallion Wars II. A new look at over-the-shoulder, unit-based multiplayer that appeals to many demographics (mature audiences tired of exceedingly more realistic WWII sims and space marines, younger audiences bored with the declining quality of 3DO's Army Men franchise) should do very well. Nintendo's Wii brand will rule the year with Sports, Play, Health, and Music, but if BWii turns out to have great online, I could easily see it outselling, say ... Metroid Prime 3.

I still have 2006 games to buy I haven't caught up on yet, I don't get that much time to play these days unfortunately.

I beleive that 2/3 of the user based needs several extra controllers, and look at wii play as a $10 budget game. The bundle would work just as well for any other budget multi-player game... It's a great seller, but I wouldn't consider it important.


No mention of ghost squad due November 6???

I think a WW prediction would be easier.

Well, at this rate, I´ll purchase 1 game per month until Octobre, and then probably 3-4 more for Christmas. Theyll probably be:

June: RE4 Wii
July: Mario Strikers Charged
August: Metroid Prime 3
September: Battalion Wars 2 or Brothers in Arms
October-December: Galaxy, Brawl, Fire Emblem, Mario & Sonic, GH3.

That leaves like 2 or 3 more spots. Theyll probably be:
Dewys Adventure
RE: Umbrella Chronicles
Zack & Wiki

If I find some games for $30 or less when I go to USA this winter, then that list may increase ( I really wanna try Elebits, SSX and Excite Truck).

I'm waiting for the reviews or at least the previews. We don't know ANYTHING about Wii Music.

 We know some.  It will have more then one game/mode, but so far, the only games revealed to be in Wii Music are the same ones shown since the Tokyo Game Show 2005 conference.

    * Drums uses the Wii controller and the Nunchuk together to simulate drum sticks. The player moves the "drumsticks" up and down to hit the drums, as in real life. The player hits the drums symphonically to make music. The game supports split-screen multiplayer.

    * Orchestra uses the Wii controller to conduct an orchestra. The player swings the Wii controller up and down to a certain tempo. Moving the Wii controller quickly with no real rhythm will make the Mii orchestra play frantically, while slow, graceful movements will create dragging notes and longer tones. There are no indicators of any kind to show how well the player is performing, forcing the player to try to match the original music from memory, and experiment to find which movements give better results. At the song's conclusion, a round of applause emanates from the TV and a numerical score is shown, along with the player's rank as a conductor. The classifications include Passionate, Graceful, and Methodical. Those players keeping an even tempo through the song are usually ranked as Methodical, whereas players who swung wildly without keeping track of the rhythm of the song are usually deemed as Passionate.

Besides Mario, Metroid, and Brawl though..do you think Wii will have 1million sellers in 2007 in the Americas?  If so how many? Will they be 3rd party as well as first party?

Starting about now I really think Wii and 360 are going to dominate the software charts for the rest of the year, although whenever there are gaps, the space will be filled by DS & PS3 with occasional, but dropping PS2 and PSP entries into the top 10.

Assuming it's decent, I think Big Brain Academy will, but possibly not until 2008. It's the type of game with legs... Thee are several others that wouldn't surprise me if they do...

Edit:  The PS3 has so few games, and so few coming out, that almost anything that comes out this year will do well. 

Selling a million in the US alone? I don't see any other Wii games than the "big three" doing that, but there might be surprise hits. My Sims for example is a complete mystery to me, and Nintendo's "Wii something" games might hit a gold vein.

There are probably over a million hardcore gamers who own a Wii that have decided to get all three, and undoubtedly a lot of the new more casual userbase is interested in trying some "real" games as well.

I wonder how many of the people who own a Wii so far are actually of the much hyped casual gamer type, and how many are active gamers who got it because they want Nintendo's first party games, or just something different from the same old formula. I imagine most of us are of the traditional gamer type, as the word still hasn't gotten that far, and the price is still at the upper limits of what most casual gamers are willing to pay.