and most importantly the wii is still hard to get, so core gamers are still likely to be the majority of people who have one..   Casual gamers will wait for there to be supply when they happen to be in the store...  The only thing is, as you said, core gamers like casual games to, for something different from the same old formula.

Hard to say how well these titles will do, while there are countless people with wiis eager to gobble up games it will be interesting to see if the casual gamer shares our interest in flagship titles.

Well Mario and Smash will each sell 3.5-6 million in the US alone, and Wii Play should eventually do 10 million in the US alone (assuming they don't replace it with a similar controller pack-in). Metroid could do as much as 2 million in the US. I guarentee they'll be other million sellers, though.

Super Paper Mario is over half-way there already, and it should show some legs--currently doing almost 30K a week. WarioWare could yet reach 1 million as well--at 550K and doing 10K a week, so it may be on target to hit 1 million sometime in 08. Games like MySims, Wii Health and Wii Music could go either way--they could be multi-million sellers, or stop short of 1 million. Big Brain Academy eventually did 1 million on DS, and could repeat, though not until 08. I'm not sure if Mario Strikers will be a hit in America, but a few past Mario sports games have done 1 million in America, and the GC game never really had a shot, yet shipped 430K... Mario Party 8 should sell 1 million, just as #1, 2 and 4 did, after a 140K first week. Guitar Hero III is probably the multiplat game with the best chance at 1 million.

And there could be a surprise, too. With the growth of the install base certainly to 6 million by year's end, million sellers should start coming faster and faster.

Looking at the million shippers pages for Xbox 360 is interesting - Wii will probably end up 2007 similar to where Xbox 360 hardware is in the Americas right now...6-7 million.  360 has 7 million selling games off that, so I expect Wii will have around 7 as well..

Since Zelda and Wii Play are already million sellers, that leaves open 5 spaces.

Again at the least you would expect Mario Galaxy, Metroid Prime 3, and Smash Brothers Brawl.

Three down.

I think you then throw in Guitar Hero 3, and another casual game - either Wii Music, DDR, Mario Party 8, or MySims.

Everything else is to me is a 50-50 proposition or less for selling 1 million units in the Americas.

You can also look at it in terms of % of users who own the game.   Why? Well Wii has 1/2 the userbase of Xbox 360, so for Wii you can look at 500,000 sellers to compare to 360 million sellers at the moment.  Right now, Wii has 4 in it's entire American lifetime (w/o Wii Sports).  360 has 7.  There are two ways to look at this - Wii games sell worse than 360 games (only 4 Wii games have reached the same % of Wii owners as 7 360 games).  Or, Wii games are selling better than 360 games because 360 has had 3x the amount on the market (18 months vs 6 months), which would mean 360 should have 12 games to sell 1 million copies, or that Wii should only have 2 or 3 games to sell 500,000.

Regardless, by the end of the year, I expect Wii to be at 6-7 million units in the Americas, with 8-12 million sellers for Wii at 6 million units, and 10-15 million sellers at 7 million units.

Guarenteed or Nearly Guarenteed to sell 1 million units by Dec 31, 2007:

Metroid Prime 3, Mario Galaxy, Super Smash Brothers Brawl, Wii Play, Pokemon Stadium, Zelda, Wario Ware

Games that I think hit 1 million eventually, but only like 70% chance in 2007

Super Paper Mario, Rayman Raving Rabbits, Wii Playground, MySims, Guitar Hero 3, Mario & Sonic, Mario Party 8

Upto 50% of selling 1 million in 2007

Rayman 2, Harry Potter, Fight Night, Wii Music, Mario Strikers, Boogie, DDR Hot mix.. 

I think that Wii Health Pack has the potential to be absolutely massive if it's marketed right.  If Nintendo can tap into the health craze and show that this game can be used as a serious way to exercise, but can also be fun at the same time, who knows how high it could go.

The Source: just curious, is there a reason Red Steel isn't even on the 50% list? Have sales dropped off *that* dramatically?

Interesting list of important titles. The only one i don't really agree with is Scarface. The rest sound very reasonable to me.

I've already picked up Mario Party 8 this year. I'll get Smash Bros Brawl for sure aswell and probably Mario Galaxy.

Depending on Time and Money restrictions I would also like to purchase:
1.Guitar Hero III
2.Wii Play
3.Nights
4.My Sims
5.RE:UC

Now I'm not him, but I can tell you that the worldwide software list says Red Steel has sold 460k in the US so far, and according to the weekly chart it's selling less than 8k per week. A million worldwide is entirely plausible, but it'll never reach that in the States alone.

Personally I think ioi jumped the gun a bit by adding it to the million seller list. =/ 

Ah, yeah, I was mixing up US/worldwide numbers in my head. Man, I've been out of it lately. Sorry 'about that

Well, according to Ubisoft, they have reached the 1million mark for both Red Steel and Rayman. Of course, they WOULD inflate their numbers.

As for million sellers, I dont think MP3 will reach it this year.