I'm thinking MGS4 with the bundle will be around 475-500k. That'd still make it the #1 PS3 game in Japan in one week I think. If not, it would be by the following week. The second weeks of MGS2 and MGS3 indicate that yes the game is front loaded. MGS2 dropped to like 87k and MGS3 dropped to 123k. Still, if it hits 500k with the bundle, I think 800k is likely.

It would be very interesting to know how much these uber-nex-gen games really cost to develop. Given a good developer worth a damn makes at least $100K and benefits for said employees are 30% or so of base (or more), 200 people a year is $20,000,000/year in cost. If that full 200-strong team works on the game for 2 years, the budget could easily hit $40 million plus all the benefits adding $12 million plus bonuses, plus marketing, etc. I think I read Halo 3 ended up somewhere in the $50+ million including marketing but marketing was EPIC. The game, however, probably cost a lot less to develop given the size and scope of Halo vs. that of MGS4. We can certainly look to the company's financials to get a better idea going forward, but man, to know the details....

So despite it being a huge game, it still might not pass 1 mil total? That seems really odd to me.

Guys, lets not forget just HOW top-heavy this game will be. Its THE game everyone will line up for, to score on day#1.

300k is a fantastic result for day#1 sales (esp. excluding bundle) - but don't be shocked if it does 400k-450k for week#1.

That said - 600k *is* possible. The last game to do something like that... Monster Hunter...

...

Metal Gear Sold 2 launched with about 300k (day#1) in Japan, and did 470k for week#1. Sales week#2 dropped to about 100k, and it ended up selling about 900k lifetime:

http://vgchartz.com/games/game.php?id=3774

...

I (for one), would LOVE to see MGS4 do exceptionally well in Japan - and reinvigorate the PS3. The charts have become a little "stale" recently... 

There is no way this game will sell less than 1 million total. Period. There are a number of reasons:

A) Stellar Game
B) No competition from competing games
C) PS3 fans have been looking for a huge hit for a while now. This is certainly one and demand will be very high.

I also think this game will have quite good legs -- more so than people are giving it credit for -- all for the same reasons above.

 well. this game is special. its remarkable and its also going to be THE game people pick up all summer with their PS3....i think its legs will surprise you. It can be played more as a shooter....and with major publications raving about it and great first day sale si japan word of mouth will spread. This game could be a phenomenon.

Stealth games arent for everybody but Kojima opening it up and embracing some heavy action sequences may be the most brilliant thing hes dont in the series, imo. Such a masterpiece. 

Superb numbers.

I'm actually hoping this will translate in better weekly HW and SW numbers for PS3 long term. If a good japanese oriented game could be released every 2-3 weeks on the PS3, it could average sales of 20k or so which is not great but ok.

The next decent games on the PS3 will be Tears to Tiara, Siren and Soul Calibur as well as some great games getting the "The Best" treatment in July. I hope this will at least be enough to get PS3 HW numbers to respectable levels.

oh the good salrs, *spins round and faints*

Well got one message to Sony? Isn't it about time to release White Knight Story worldwide... already?! What are you waiting for?